TSG

52 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Why is it when these things shift warmer 10 days out it never shifts back to snow despite there being plenty of time for models to change?

Because the human brain is hardwired for negativity and that's what you end up remembering more often than not. Shifts in the other direction happen too. Being positive takes work

There's also inherent cold bias in the long range afaik

Your best bet would be to stop paying attention to D7+ model output

14 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Go south, yee low pressure

Iowa to Southern Indiana in 5 runs? It'll be on the NC/VA border by tomorrow night 

6 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

I agree that it might as well be warm. Gives us a chance to do more outdoor activities and get some sun. I'd rather be on the tennis courts with my son in 55 degree weather than stuck inside on a sunny day with temps in the 20s. 

Okay but being able to enjoy outdoor activities is exactly what I'm talking about? short vs long term gains. 2-3 weeks of real cold to not worry about coming home with 10 ticks every time you go hiking for the next 12 months

2 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

if it's not gonna snow it might as well be warm.

Absolutely not, give me 2-3 weeks of frigid and no snow if it has to be that way. Ticks are out of control the past few years. We need some real cold to knock their numbers down

57 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Afternoon update from LWX bumped up HGR and MRB to 5-8”

What is going on in Orange, VA? Why can't Cville get the peninsula of hope?

18z 3k NAM has this area under moderate/heavy sleet for 7-8 hrs Saturday.. I hope that's wrong

it's REAL funny to me how quiet the debs get once guidance start showing something positive. It only takes one bad cycle for them to return though, stay vigilant out there y'all!!!

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

It may have been. If things go the way current guidance is hinting I will bust horribly. One of my worst fails ever!  But I’m not convinced it’s going that way yet. Im just being honest that I have more uncertainty than I did weeks ago.  Why wouldn’t I. For a time guidance supported my thoughts. Now it is universally in opposition. Unless I was in denial that has to be at least slightly concerning. 
 

The question is should I stick my head in the sand and pull a JB and just stay with a busted forecast no matter what the new evidence says?  I can just keep saying “it’s coming” until March no matter what. Or do I adapt based on the best available new evidence and accept when I was wrong?  

Said it 2 years ago and I'll say it again: It blows my mind how many non science-minded folks we have shouting their useless opinions on this forum these days. Go to banter or even better, Twitter, if you want to masturbatorily tell everyone their analysis or forecast is wrong (while offering no real counterpoint or useful critique). It's so effing weird and it's gotten worse the last 10 years with the "spread" of the internet. I'm starting to believe social media was a mistake.

And I share Bob's sentiment. There's some previously decent posters who have lost their marbles the last few years. We need a lot less "OMFG look at the GEFS #WinterCancelled" repeated ad nauseum every 6 hrs. Post's like Bob's latest used to be much more the norm. Not living or dying by the latest model runs, but taking days/weeks worth of output as a whole and drawing higher level conclusions until those features got into the medium range. Thank you @psuhoffman and @CAPE (and a few others) for being voices of reason in here when a lot of others have exited over the years.

That being said, my ignore list got a bit longer this morning

39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

A couple weeks ago we got snow when a SW flow and 60 degree temps ahead of it!  

oh come on PSU... we both know that was not a comparable setup. First, positively (Jan 3rd) vs negatively (Dec 11) tilted troughs. Second, the storm on the 11th had another piece of energy over the GL pressing that cold into the backside which gave us a couple hrs of changover, instead of the 0-15 mins we're used to with cold chasing precip. There is no such mechanism available for the storm on the 3rd, at least not as currently depicted.

51 minutes ago, RIC_WX said:

Its not snowing in the western highlands.  It hasn't snowed in the western highlands for a week.  It's no longer forecasted to snow in the western highlands before Friday or Saturday or Sunday or Monday.  In fact, it's the same temperature in the highlands as it is in the lowlands nearly this entire week, which lends itself to +15 or greater departures out here.

Go back and look at the models from December 10 / 15 / 20-/ 24th for the highlands and tell me the can hasn't been kicked.  It's kicked out of the medium range every time this season except for maybe the underperforming event December 18-19.  

I am sorry that ground truth is defeating the modeled predictions for more favorable conditions in the medium range.

Yeah, no, the onus is not on everyone else in the room to go look and see if you're claims are true. That's your job. Bring some evidence to the show or expect that you'll be ignored.

the GFS looks pretty accurate to me for this period. What are you looking at?

Dec 19th 12z GFS, valid 00z Dec 27

12z GFS today, valid 00z Dec 27

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

You are looking macro. Pull back and look at the hemisphere long wave pattern. 
 

Look where that NS energy originates a few days before. It comes down from near the Yukon and dives through Manitoba. This isn’t some cut off southern treat subtropical system. It’s a NS wave diving down from northwest Canada. And look at the flow.  

As it dives into the upper Midwest the flow into our source regions is still directly from the north.

Now as the wave digs to our west and turns east yes we have a southwest flow.  But one that’s true of any wave approaching from the west.  Anytime any wave is west of us we will have a southerly flow ahead of it.  So what are you saying we can only snow from some negative tilt capture scenario where a wave bongs south of us and pulls due north?  Good luck with that.  Second look at the larger flow.  Look where the air to our southwest originates.  The larger flow to our area is still straight from the arctic!  

after this the upper low is amplifying and tracks to our south. Even if we concede the initial surface track is such that it would start as rain in DC there is absolutely no excuse why it’s not snow once the surface low is 988 off the coast with an amplified NS upper low whose SW originated in northern Canada and a deform band puking heavy precip on us. 
 

Finally, yes there are minor imperfections here you can point to and try to say “but if this or that variable had been more perfect” but I did a case study it every 4” snowstorm at BWI going back to 1950 years ago. And almost all of them were flawed in some way. The ones that weren’t were the HECS storms. Yes if we want 20” we need it to be textbook. 50/50, cold high, block, perfect track in every way. But that’s not true of almost all the 4-8” type storms we’ve had over the last 75 years!  The reason they weren’t a HECS was whatever flaw it had. But one or two minor flaws wasn’t a reason we can’t get snow at all!  There are a ton of variances. Micro. Macro. We could go over like 10+ important variables that influence a snowstorm to some degree. If we need every single one to line up perfect we’re screwed!  I’m not saying we can’t snow if we get like every possible thing right. Of course we will still get a hecs if we get a 3 std dv block with a 50/50 and a 1045 arctic high over Montreal and a bonbinh 980 STJ system tracking up the east coast. I know that will still work. But that setup will happen once a decade. Are we F’d the rest of/ the time?  

Not sure I understand the macro comment. Typo? meant micro? I am certainly on your side when it comes to it being more difficult for us to see snow now than in the past. I've been called out multiple times for supporting it. I don't think this specific case can be attributed to that much if at all though.

The SW flow at the surface up to ~900mb starts on the 30th/31st when that shortwave is still exiting Canada, not when it digs into the South and starts coming East on the 1st/2nd. There is NOTHING to resist that flow. No sign of a high pressure to our North anywhere. This is such a classic way for us to fail it's making my head spin that people are acting like it would normally work 10+ years ago. There's a friggin GLL (Great Lakes Low).... what I learned to be our #1 enemy for snowfall around here. IMO this setup sucks and would still suck if it was in the distant past.. And if we weren't all so traumatized from years of low snow I think more would be calling it for what it is.

If you do have a specific example of where this worked previously I'll happily eat crow, but thinking back on past seasons this just seems like a stinker of an opportunity top to bottom.

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

You are missing the point. The fact that isnt a snowstorm in the Shenandoah Valley in early January is a problem. It would be in any other year I can remember. We have been torched at the surface plenty of times heading into snowstorms in the past. Something is just different about the base state now.

I think a lot of people are ignoring the 48 hrs leading up to that point. Sure we have subzero 850s, but that doesn't matter if we've had SW flow at the surface for 2.5 days. This is not a good setup for snow anywhere below high elevation.

Would you really expect snow in Winchester on the 3rd looking at this setup on the 1st? I wouldn't.

I don't understand the doom and gloom over this setup on the 3rd. This just isn't a good look for MA snow and never was. There's no real cold in the East to work with yet, it's all behind the storm. We need it in front.

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Frankly that frame is absolutely terrifying to me.  Were no longer a day into the pattern by then. We’ve had an NW flow into the eastern US for a week by then to establish a colder regime. Everything went 100% perfect for places a bit NW of DC (even DC should get a decent snow there) and it’s just rain.  

 

i'm going to disagree pretty strongly on this point. The boundary layer up to ~900mb is torched from 2.5 days of Southwest/South flow starting on the 31st. Yeah these kind of storms can bomb out and make up for less than ideal temps, but there's no real cold for the storm to pull down from the N/NW. The panel below says it all, >0C 850s all the way to Maine... 45-50F surface coming in at 20kts off the Atlantic over NJ/DE. That's just not a recipe for snow in the Mid-Altantic in my experience, bombing cyclone or not.

13 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

Huh? Maybe Snowshoe but I don't track WVA weather :). Western MD has had snow but it melted a day or two later. The last chance we had forecast was 4-8 and ended up with 2. I skied Wisp opening day Dec 15 but they've only managed two small trail additions since then. The next 5 days is 40s and rain. We plan on heading up Friday, hoping for something white but not expecting much at this point. 

Timberline has much better skiing conditions but only due to their brand new snowmaking system. They received a bit more natural but again it melts a couple days later. 

Canaan and Timberline have about 1000' of extra elevation over Deep Creek/Wisp which helps a lot when temps are marginal. Those resorts almost always maintain better snowpack.

4 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I guess it’s time for a reminder that it’s only December.

Late season form and we haven't even hit the solstice 

26 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Euro makes me want to cry. Absolutely perfect storm track for the Shenandoah valley. And its a rain storm. Lets hope the whole atmospheric memory thing is real. Storms have been climbing the coast for months at this point. Give me that track in mid January and we get blitzed.

This is how I feel right now. Not sure which way temps are going to play out the rest of winter, but with this many storms hugging the coast the past few months, it's hard for me to imagine we don't get a flush hit at least once before April.

22 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Precip (rain/snow light) forming in the region at 114. MSLP off southern OBX. Good upslope run at least thus far.

Not sure it cranks in time. Light snow west of 95 by 120.

Still positively tilted. Don't think we get the jackpot this run.

PBP much appreciated. Taking Stormtracker's place this year?

1 hour ago, nmyers1204 said:

Just one comment...as a long-time reader and life long resident of Carroll and Frederick counties...there is no rain shadow/downslope/orographic effect created by the Catoctin Mts; they're simply not high enough. Emmitsburg, Frederick and Thurmont receive less snow than Westminster/Manchester merely due to minor elevation changes. IF there was this sort of effect, Wolfsville would benefit from upslope in a similar fashion to DCL. 

What? there absolutely is an effect. Hagerstown is at like 500ft ASL, the Catoctins then top out over 1800ft just to the East. Wolfsville is definitely not benefitting from upslope, but it's not because the terrain isn't high enough. It's because they're only at 1000ft ASL and 1.5 miles East of the highest terrain in the Catoctins. They're sitting in a shadow too. It's not as bad as what Thurmont faces but it's enough to be easily seen on a map (below).

7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The lemon developed. Unclear what the next opportunity for TC genesis is but I think this is probably it for MDR systems. Once Philippe and Rina separate, one of them may thrive for a bit.

13 NS since Aug 20 is a record.

 

WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 13 (13)
Hurricanes: 6 (5)
Major Hurricanes: 3 (3)

Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH), Jose, Katia, Lee (MH), Margot (H), Nigel (H), Ophelia, Philippe, Rina 

How many years have you been doing these now? Damn impressive this year. I thought we were going to blow through your numbers a couple weeks ago but the slowdown does seem imminent. 

Do we have any fall leaf color experts in here? I'm wondering if the rain from Ophelia can save us from going straight to brown in the drought stricken areas or if this is just a little too late.

Still at 984 on the latest recon pass. Fresh convection popping up in the western half with a decent amount of lightning. Might get another small drop in pressure before landfall

13 minutes ago, mob1 said:

It's fine where it's now, we were discussing the shelf waters as it gets closer to the coast. 

 

Either way, should be a fairly steady state from now through landfall (might strengthen a bit in the next few hours but should weaken a bit as it approaches the coast). 

the 5-10 miles of cooler SSTs along the coast are not going to have much effect on how strong this is when it lands

10 minutes ago, mob1 said:

You're coming on a bit strong. Relax, it's just a storm and the reality is that 78-80 degree SST's are borderline at best. 

 

Recon recording unflagged SFMR of 70 knots should be enough for an upgrade (though they didn't do it at 5). 

SSTs offshore are well over 80

These two stations are roughly equidistant from the current center, NW and SE respectively. The GS is between those two so temps are likely even higher where the storm is. 

Frying Pan Shoals is now at 80.1, was at 81.7 just before midnight.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41013

83.8 at this buoy

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41002
 

19 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

78. This isn’t Florida. Lose the attitude.

that's rich after reading your last 10 posts in this thread. The storm is strengthening and it's clearly got tropical characteristics at this point.

You've been poo-pooing this like a 5 y/o who needs a nap since yesterday.

3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Water temp at HAT is 77 and 79 at CF, not exactly bath water

And? that waters been getting churned by TS force winds for hours and hours. What was the temp 24 hrs ago?