TSG

>40dBZ reflections inbound 

33 minutes ago, TSG said:

Wow, already not an accurate depiction. Roads have completely caved in the last 30 mins. @adelphi_sky

2 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Not sure if that is sleet or bright-banding from incredibly snow, but that is an interesting line on radar just north of Roanoke back to Blacksburg. 

Was looking at that earlier. Scared to flirt with it but I kind of need to know..

ripping fatties

Sidewalks starting to cave, a few slushy spots forming on pavement. Temp holding steady at 29/27. Heavier bands on the way in from the West.

One thing to remember for those of you refreshing radar every 30s.. LWX has significant blindspots to the West, especially for low level stuff like this. The worst area is WSW pointing towards Harrisonburg and Staunton. In the summer it's not nearly as noticeable with higher cloud tops. You need to check the Roanoke and Charleston radars to get a better idea of what's headed over the mountains into NoVA.

Just now, MDScienceTeacher said:

Thats what I thought but usual there is at least some logic in his pessimism.. that post made no sense.. unless he was comparing the last euro to the GFS MECS  runs from last week.. 

I think that might've been Ji flavored sarcasm

This forum could be part of a case study about mass hysteria events

15z HRRR is improved for the northern crew

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Rotunda pics!! Counting on you. 

haha I'll get over there later once it's piled up a bit more. I can't remember, did you typically do night shots or day? or both?

Wet-bulbing has gotten us down to 29F in Albemarle after a high of 34F around 9am, 2 degrees colder than the 15z HRRR initialized at for this area. That seems like a good sign for us down here later, maybe not a great sign for those way north.

29/26, SN, ~2" otg, visibility fluctuating between 1-0.5 mile

9 minutes ago, TSG said:

The HRRR has been getting colder each run. Sleet line looks to stay south of CHO until at least midnight now. It came through around 9/10pm on some earlier runs this morning.

30/25, moderate snow, ~1" on the ground so far

 

The HRRR has been getting colder each run. Sleet line looks to stay south of CHO until at least midnight now. It came through around 9/10pm on some earlier runs this morning.

30/25, moderate snow, ~1" on the ground so far

14 hours ago, yoda said:

This is what I'm thinking of now every time someone says we need to will the storm north some

 

 

wololo

5 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Nah, this late in the season the reflection of the sun angle off the moon should eat into totals unless it's a new moon.  

And we do have a full moon in 2 days... uh oh. hope the models are taking this into account

Just now, EstorilM said:

I was expecting them to do it in the morning shift, but I guess afternoon is still technically ~24hr before. 

The models seem to be jumping around more now than ever (with the details anyways) - GEM has 3.5 for LoCo and SREFs have 5.6 (which are usually pretty conservative) - the big models have up to 8+, but I don't think that's counting the mixing/melting.

I think LWX stays 4-6 with WSW, but it's probably going to be a bust for a lot of people who get all excited over the warning.  Likewise this might throw the school systems for a loop when they see WSW in a few hours, followed by a semi-bustola during the event.

This is pretty locked in. Not worth putting much weight on the SREFs or GEM output

every damn time. I mean I hope not but..

31 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I have a detailed mental image of all the significant posters on this forum, what I imagine they look like seated at their computers/phones furiously typing shit out at each run...what they're wearing, their expressions, mannerisms, etc.  It gets very entertaining in my head and all the storylines and interactions between posters. Can probably blame that on autism, but I can't fight it.  

 

Back to banter...here's the view from wife's box at the SB.  Looks pretty solid.  I'm spending the game looking at my piano and Paul Cardell sheet music.  

 

lol I do the same to some extent, never diagnosed but I've got plenty of the signs and signals 

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

CAD is holding surprisingly strong for the storm after it. 

That's what I've got my eye on at this point. It could be nasty along and West of the BR.

Idk exactly what storm track / system charcteristics combo we need to get this kind of setup, but it's reminding me of the mid-January storm in 2022. There was a big pocket of cold air that never really eroded in SW/Central VA. If yall don't remember that storm it was a quick front end followed by rain (for most). Down here we never really lost the surface, maybe got to 33-34 before crashing again, but areas 100+ miles north were getting blasted with 45 degree ocean air and lost anything that fell or was remaining. The end result was we had snow on the ground down here almost that entire month while the metros only had a week after the Jan 3rd storm

We are now entering the most dangerous territory for the snow weenie: extended HRRR and NAM at 48 hrs

59 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Tell me where I'm wrong in my summary of what goes on here. I did not put this on the main thread, btw. This is banter and we can so that here. I'm legit explaining why it's like that because you spoke on it. You've been complaining about this forum for years as if it's gonna change something--folks here are the way they are.

Simply: People here are emotional about snow. That's not gonna change. So you're better off just accepting that and not expecting anything else!

When did I say you were wrong? 

Everyone here has emotions about snow chances. This is the most edge-case filled forum among the spectrum of people that care at all about the weather. How would we not? It's just that the vast majority of the people here choose to not muck up the storm discussion threads with it. It's obnoxious scrolling through the same 10-15 posts every model cycle that are nothing but "I just KNOW the north trend is coming" "It hasn't snowed 6" in Baltimore since friggin 'nam dude!" "THIS IS SO UNFAIR, WAAAAAAAAAAAH"...

But that's okay! That's why the ignore list exists

35 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It's an emotional hobby--it's gonna happen. And really it's not so much a hobby as just really wanting snow. This forum isn't gonna rise to your expectations, man...Folks are emotional in their want for snow in their backyard and that's just kinda how it is. Most of us are like that to a degree, but some handle it better than others!

This is the exact type of post I'm talking about

13 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Isn’t that hour 96, not now?

There will be blocking in place when the storm arrives Tuesday. The low that went North of us yesterday will become the 50/50

This current storm thread has added more people to my ignore list than the last 10 years combined lol

CHILL YALL. We don't need to know your every waking thought