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RIC Airport

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  1. RIC Airport
    There is a lot of spread on the models, it's good that the farther north solutions are still showing up. The 12Z GEFS had a mixed breed of solutions. A couple hits, some southern misses, and even quite a few rainy members. You can see why the 50th percentile is so empty because only a couple members are driving up the mean.
  2. RIC Airport
    Today's 12z operational GFS is still south with the 2/4 to 2/6 low. Will be interesting to see how the ensembles look. We need the upper low over the Canadian Maritimes (A) further east so the low in the gulf (B) can amplify and come north. The 12z GFS was farther north than the 6z run so there is that.
  3. RIC Airport
    Could be just me, but I am not able to see what you posted, @ldub23. Meanwhile, after reviewing the overnight and morning models, there is still a storm signal for the February 4th to 6th timeframe, but it isn't as impressive as yesterday (i.e. not as many hits). But there is still plenty of time to monitor. Hopefully today is an improvement.
  4. RIC Airport
    GFS was south again with the 2/5 possible storm, but perhaps some snow showers on Saturday with the confluence low pressing south?
  5. RIC Airport
    This starts at 12z 2/2 and finishes at 12z 2/7. You can see the hits in there around 2/5.
  6. RIC Airport
    Charts, @Conway7305
  7. RIC Airport
    Our area is due the most, would love to get a March 1980 blizzard redux. Btw, there were some huge hits on the 18z GEFS as well.
  8. RIC Airport
    @Conway7305, e-32 for is a more believable evolution.
  9. RIC Airport
  10. RIC Airport
    Did you notice in the chart above that E-50 was 24” at RIC?
  11. RIC Airport
    Definitely was an interested solution on the op. Not too many ensemble hits, but a couple were HUGE! ORF and ECG actually had more hits than RIC, possibly indicative of a more southern outcome, rather than snow being displaced north of us like last week.
  12. RIC Airport
    It actually look similar to that one ensemble member I posted the other day. The 00z GFS had it hitting NC, and the 6z was suppressed to the south, but as you mentioned, some of the 6z ensembles were hits for us. We can expect to see wild swings from run to run with the pattern change. Hang tight, everyone!! Thank you for thinking about us.
  13. RIC Airport
    Well, the Euro went all in last night.
  14. RIC Airport
    Might want to look at the surface temps. Also the ensembles are rainy east of the mountains.
  15. RIC Airport
    I wish I had turned the air on before I went to bed last night. I woke up around 3am, surprisingly uncomfortable. We certainly over-performed with the temperatures this week, especially considering how cold it got last week. I hope our region cashes in before all is set and done. As you mentioned, the operational runs haven't shown much yet, but hopefully, after the weekend, we begin seeing the advertised pattern take shape.
  16. RIC Airport
    I love it! Really hope it pans out for us, there are quite a few good snowstorms that have hit us between the 10th and 20th of February.
  17. RIC Airport
    Explain?
  18. RIC Airport
    Just piggybacking off your records are made to be broken comment.
  19. RIC Airport
    I hope I'm alive when DCA hits -16°F.
  20. RIC Airport
    Yeah, it's a shame. I would rather have what we had on this date 24 years ago. One of my favorite snowstorms, RIC had 7-8 consecutive hours of +SN FZ BLSN and there was one hour where the wind gusted higher than the 2016 storm. A very dynamic storm and an all snow event from beginning to end.
  21. RIC Airport
    Meanwhile, we are torching. The high today at Richmond was 71°F, and the low was only 62°F, which ties the highest low temperature recorded in January. That puts the daily average at 67°F, which is +29 degrees above average for the date. All the stations in boxes have their record high minimums in jeopardy for today and tomorrow. Even at this late hour, temperature anomalies are around +25.
  22. RIC Airport
    The GFS will continue to fluctuate beyond 200 hours from run to run. But, as discussed, the signals are nice to see. The 18z GEFS did show some support, the below goes from the 3rd thru the 8th.
  23. RIC Airport
    Updated charts as promised, mostly 15th and later with hits.
  24. RIC Airport
    Things still look on track, with the ~10th and beyond being the most favorable. The snow mean is a slight tick down, but it's typical for slight fluctuations from run to run. Snow charts are still processing.
  25. RIC Airport
    BTW, the euro weeklies are running now, new maps and snow charts I'll post them when it's done.
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