RIC Airport

@JFLETCHER, no worries, and I didn't mean to come across that way. Admittedly, this winter has been a disappointment, and yes, the weeklies have overpromised and have underdelivered. But it's hard to see the day-to-day details when looking at the 500 MB anomaly maps. Anticipation is mainly from what history has told us, but sometimes things don't work out. So far, the PHL to DCA corridor has been the best place to be relative to average. Outside of that, most places are still struggling with snow. Look at the precip anomalies since early November. It's a shame we've had so little snow with all the moisture we've seen. But, the cold has been displaced in the central and southern plains while we've been skewed warm so far.

There has always been that rivalry, but its gotten pretty bad over the years and sometimes it can get pretty toxic as if it can't possibly snow down here. And yes, that is why this thread exists, @Stormpc, @RVAman, @JB Fins. Thank you. Besides, this is a snow board. That's what drives most of the traffic. If people are gonna be negative and not get into the day to day tracking of snow then I'm not sure you're gonna like it around here. Just look at your phone app or out the window every day to check the weather.

@ldub23why do you keep posting the 384hr GFS and using that as justification to inject negativity into the thread? I've told you numerous times, both publicly and privately about why this isn't a best practice and you keep doing it. The STJ has been producing all winter, hence the record rainfall we've seen since the week before Thanksgiving. The STJ isn't the issue. There are other mechanisms to learn about before making such declaration. I also don't think people are "buying in", many of us have been at this long enough to know how things work. Personally, if I didn't want to see what the models showed a week or two in advance, I wouldn't be a part of this community and would either look at the forecast on my phone app or simply look out the window every day to see how the weather is. But, that isn't fun.

The 00z EPS showed the next bona fide threat window toward mid-month, primarily for Richmond. 1-2 members DO show the snow shower possibility next week on the back side of that coastal storm. Hopefully, these charts will light up like a Christmas tree in the coming days as the pattern continues to look favorable for snowstorms.

00z GFS has next week's storm still too far south and east, but tries to introduce snow showers for coastal areas, maybe even some bay effect snow for southside Hampton Roads as it pulls away.

Fwiw, the updated CANSIPs just dropped. Seems to be on board with us staying on the cooler and wetter side for the next few months and @ldub23's cold and wet April prediction could come true. Also, it still likes the idea of a La Nina for the 2024-25 winter.

That one dropped 15" at RIC.

The 18z GEFS still has a few hits around the 5-6th, including one member that gives RIC 15" of snow. However, there were more hits, although small, for ORF and ECG. After that, there is an uptick toward mid-month.

Doesn't look THAT bad to me. And this is at 1pm. But, again.....it's hour 384. The 00z run could have us at 25°F or a full fledged torch 70°F+. So, while no arctic cold, you can't really glean much from that range.

I know I said I lost interest, but the 2/5 to 2/6 threat is not dead in the water. There are still several ensemble members that have us getting snow next week. Also, the 18z GFS was farther north with enough cold air, so it was something to monitor. We've seen some weird last-minute hits before.

There have been quite a few decent events mid to late month. I haven't gone through Norfolk's data yet, but here are Richmond's February snowstorms that delivered 4 inches or more since 1898. Quite a few events were close to making the list, so this doesn't exactly tell the whole story. I will post the Norfolk events at some other time and look at March as well. February Snowstorms 4" or more at Richmond (since 1898) 5.0” February 26, 2015 7.2” February 16-17, 2015 5.8” February 12-13, 2014 4.0” February 19-20, 2012 6.6” February 5-6, 2010 8.3” February 16, 1996 4.0” February 26-27, 1993 5.3” February 23-24, 1989 7.6” February 18, 1989 5.3” February 16-17, 1987 17.7” February 10-11, 1983 6.6” February 27-28, 1982 4.2” February 13-14, 1982 4.7” February 9-10, 1980 10.9” February 18-19, 1979 6.4” February 7, 1979 4.4” February 19, 1972 4.0” February 17, 1972 5.3” February 2, 1972 4.9” February 17-18, 1967 6.4” February 9-10, 1967 5.6” February 6-7, 1967 6.6” February 14-15, 1965 7.3” February 28, 1964 5.3” February 26, 1963 8.9” February 13-14, 1960 6.3” February 15, 1958 5.6” February 26-27, 1952 5.4” February 24, 1952 4.5” February 10, 1948 10.1” January 31-February 1, 1948 9.2” February 19-20, 1947 12.6” February 7, 1936 8.0” February 25, 1934 4.7” February 4-5, 1933 4.6” February 20, 1914 4.7” February 13, 1914 4.1” February 7-8, 1909 4.2” February 27, 1906 6.1” February 10-11, 1904 9.7” February 15-17, 1902 5.4” February 16-18, 1900 16.3” February 11-14, 1899 4.0” February 6-7, 1899

I agree. But, had the 2/5 threat not shown up on the models, that had been expected. That we'd have a brief cool down, followed by a moderation before things got good for mid-late month into March.

Yup, and the higher heights in the NAO/AO domains. But, more importantly, this time around, we have a bona fide western ridge. Both the EPS and GEFS look favorable for a snowstorm, I hope WE can score and the snow isn't displaced north and west of us. It's hard to see why we couldn't.

Posting to save @ldub23 time. Certainly a good look. But I'm definitely NOT getting reeled in this soon. Need to get to around 10 days before I begin investing time. But the signals are great to see.

Those were the days, @JB Fins. Wish we could get a cold storm with high ratios like that again soon. Look at that RIC 10:54am ob and that visibility! That was as the best rates were starting to happen. Also, @Conway7305, @ldub23 et. al, the GFS still has a storm around 2/15. It's way out there so not worth getting into the details because we know it's going to change. Also, the end of today's 12z run was encouraging for the 2/15 period and beyond. Hopefully it has a clue, it's too early to give up on the winter.

14 years ago today, a really nice snowstorm was winding down in our region. What was so nice about it was that it was a daytime event accompanied by very cold temperatures and low visibilities. Snow started around 4am, with the heaviest rates (1-2" per hour) between about 8am and 4pm. Temperatures at Richmond were only in the upper teens to around 20°F during the event. It was one of the coldest snowstorms of this magnitude since the Blizzard of 1996. Official accumulations were 10.0" at RIC and 6.5" at ORF, but some places in the RIC area had as much as 14-15". A map with the event summary from NWS Wakefield can be found at this link. Below is a 24-hour summary for RIC for 1/30/2010, and a couple of obs and saved radar images from that day.

I disagree, snow season goes through the end of March. ORF even had accumulating snows (2.0") as late as 3/12 back in 2018. Richmond had a 4" event on 3/24/2013 and a 2.0" on 3/21/2018. Not including at least a handful of events in early March since 2013. Just because the models propped an unlikely event on 2/5 has no bearing for the rest of the season.

00z GFS was still south. I posted the ICON map, but I am not able to see what @ldub23posted. Not sure if it's an image or a link, but this is what I see all the time.

ICON, fwiw, @Conway7305, @ldub23

That's great to know, but I would be careful using the ICON and CMC for sniffing out east coast snowstorms. ICON hasn't been around long enough, and CMC has only won once in like the last 15-20 years over the GFS/Euro. I'm not trying to be a killjoy, just saying. I think they might be useful closer in though.

There is still potential for 2/5, but I became uninvested after yesterday's 12Z runs. Today's 12Z EPS only had 1-2 good hits, even fewer than yesterday and the day before, so the trend has not been great. Meanwhile, today's updated weeklies continue to sing the same tune for late February into March. That's really the only thing we can ask for at this juncture, with the hopes the pattern will deliver for our area. I do not see the need to cancel the winter.

Trend definitely isn’t good.

Certainly nothing like yesterday.

The 12z euro was still close to something big, but it gets shredded so it's too far south and east.