Lookout

btw..the early changeover around atlanta is supported by the hrrr too 

1 hour ago, Queencitywx said:

Looking at soundings, the warm layer that is on the NAM isnt on the GFS. We're fighting the surface on the GFS. 

yep...This is a real tough one for areas south of 85 in ne ga and the upstate because of this. I was really becoming pessimistic about snow chances where i'm at because of the warming trend by both models....but the hrrr and rap are giving me some hope. Both models are showing a strong push of heavy precip in a banding type feature and the rap is showing some optimistic temp response. There is enough dry air aloft that there should be a pretty good temp response just off the surface...indeed the rap is showing rapid cooling of 925mb temps.  If that low level warm layer can be overcome early here/upper savannah river valley/upstate it would at least remove one headache i think from the equation for the USRV...and maybe mean at least seeing some snow before changing to rain if that warm nose is as advertised. 

I still think 1 to 3 is the most likely accumulation outside the screwzone here but I  feel like there is at least a moderate chance than more than just a couple of inches is at least possible for the atlanta metro, carrolton, lagrange, and up toward or just west of gainesville. Despite the warm crap here, it's looking cold enough at all levels...including actually getting to freezing..or even slightly below imo west and southwest of atlanta, that they cold end up doing quite well. 

Rap is suggesting a changeover to snow as early as 1 to 4am west and south of atlanta...and temps already at freezing. If it does....there is a lot of precip upstream to come. Rap even suggests a changeover is possible here as early as 12z. Rap is a good 5 or 6 degreescolder at the surface than the gfs here at 12z friday too. 

53 minutes ago, HWY316wx said:

I am just going to leave this right here.

This is one of those cases where there could be a narrow band that over performs quite a bit vs most folks. Right now I'm thinking a general 1 to 3 inches very slushy inches is the most likely outcome for most folks.. especially around lagrange, carrolton, newnan, through atlanta and up to maybe gainesville...thanks in part to surface temps possibly getting to and even below freezing..which higher resolution models have been showing...which makes a big difference compared to snow and 33/34. 

14 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said:

 

Euro adds to yet another model showing that warm bubble in East GA/Upstate SC lol. Limiting any real chance of decent accumulation there.

again, i'm not terribly worried... I don't think the models are accurately showing surface temps based on the full soundings.  There could be some delay, maybe an hour or two vs elsewhere but it shouldn't matter a lot if there is sustained precip and decent rates. This run is a good 5 degrees colder than the previous runs here. Our biggest concern should be total precip amounts/rates not being heavy enough to dynamically/evap cool the column or any warm nose centered around 800mb..which the nam shows making it just to athens to elberton or so for a brief time before retreating back south. 

Good run for atlanta metro...they don't seem to have to worry about any of that based on most of the modeling....unless it ends up like the uk where they would end up mostly rain and snow would be mostly confined to west and north of the city. 

3 minutes ago, griteater said:

Euro is taking a baby step, but not a big one

i'd say it's a little better

7 minutes ago, griteater said:

UKMet maps coming in.  It's moist, but warm....suggests snow in N GA, NC Mtns and foothills

not surprising it would be warmer...looks like it's well north of every other model with the surface low. 

12z icon says the 85 corridor is going to be white

gfs sure seems out there by itself right now. 

16 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said:

Literally every model shows the warmer air in Athens/East GA area....the cold air simply can't make it over the mountains fast enough during the heart of the storm.

Most of the time I buy it but in this case i don't...for a couple of reasons. One the cold/dry  air is actually already in place...where as normally in a setup like this... we are screwed when we are having to wait on caa/dry air advection as precip arrives. Fact is, The airmass here is not much different than everywhere else thursday night at the surface, near surface, or aloft but for whatever reason the canadian is not wanting to cool the surface temps just one or two more degrees. Based on full soundings/wetbulb zero heights.....i think this is in error. In most of the cases where that warm bubble really screws this area is when it extends up to 925mb....but nam and gfs, nor even the canadian shows that. Another problem would be if precip was lighter here for some reason or another but that doesn't seem to be a problem either. 

The biggest concern i have at the moment is two fold...one precip is actually light like the gfs...and 2nd is a warm nose aloft...from 700mb to 850mb..sneaking in during the day friday possibly resulting in sleet for a time. The nam is hinting at this. However, i don't think  This will be a problem north and west of athens

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The RGEM is in though 42 and is insanely far NW at 42 compared to the 06Z run at 48 

12z rgem is coming in wetter. 

lol...what a nam job. Some areas with more than 24 hours of snow fall

49 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

The majority of the models are more amped than the EURO, carving out the upper low more distinctly than the euro over the MISS Valley. If last year was any indicator towards this year, we'll probably see the euro cave at some point. Just taking a look purely at the 500mb chart, it's a pretty classic setup, the only issue is it's so early in the season for a snowstorm. My gut tells me most of the area see's snow falling, but boundary layer conditions limit the ratios to something like 6:1, which would lower totals to a general 1-3 across the area, except in areas who get lucky with dynamic cooling. EURO has been keying in on an area from SE Wake county NE towards the coastline for days. So it will be interesting to see how that pans out. The SLP track is pretty ideal being decently offshore, so I don't see a ton of mid or upper level mixing being an issue. This will likely be a rain or snow scenario.

Good post. Regardless of what happens, it being this early in the year means this is all just a bonus...regardless of outcome. I never expect to see any snow this early in the year so even if there is no accumulation, just seeing flakes will be a bonus. 

47 minutes ago, HWY316wx said:

For those of us in Georgia the EURO, NAM, CMC and members of the GEFS have given us some eye poppers.  I for one am happy to see some areas of GA that don't normally get snow, being shown to cash in on many of these runs.  

Our media outlets down here are super conservative right now.  James Spann has sounded the lookout for the Atlanta area and the Atlanta Mets will not jump on that train.  I get being conservative but if models continue down the path they've been on, they will have no choice but to start to get serious about talking about it publicly.

Personally, I want it to come a little more North but I will be happy just to see flakes fly and folks that usually miss out get some snow.

I get not being bullish but last night was pretty embarrassing. David and glen mother f'n burns both didn't even mention a remote possibility of a flake when i tortured myself watching him at 6:30.  If they think the public can't handle them even saying there is a 20 or 30% chance of flurries or a mix a few days out....which at this stage is more than a reasonable forecast then that is an incredibly sad testament in a number of ways. 

At any rate, i think it should be pointed out that the nam right now is doing a really piss poor job of the current precip shield. Now mind you, the northern edge is likely not reaching the ground but comparing what's going on now with the  the 0z and 06z runs....man it's pretty bad. Indeed, many of the model look too dry. Of course It doesn't necessarily mean there will be a ton more precip friday/friday night but it's something to keep in mind and the models could have trouble right up until the "main event". 

On the flip side, RH profiles and Nam's composite imagery suggest there will be a lot of virga the next few days which might make things look a lot more impressive than they are. 

18z run of the cmc seems pretty bullish. Still showing that aggravating near surface warm bubble around here.. but overall..nw of the 12z run 

Total precip amounts between  06z friday and 06z saturday....

5 minutes ago, griteater said:

IMO, this is going to continue to tick more amped with more precip inland.  I'm just basing it on how it's trending with the wave/trough and sfc low positioning, and how these tend to work with the modeling.  I think we would have seen it back off with the 12z runs if we were moving to a weaker solution.  Looks good to me in the mtns.  East of there it will take some heavy temperature analysis to determine locales with snow.

Many more shifts like this 12z  euro run vs the 0z run and this event will be quite s bit different than currently advertised. 

2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Yeah, I didn't see anything wrong with what you posted.

I agree...i didn't see anything wrong with it either....so let's end it here. 

29 minutes ago, griteater said:

Euro looks like a light snow event for the mtns and foothills..into far NE GA...storm is slow to depart...some snow mixed in east of there probably

Everything seems to hedge on if there is enough precip to overcome the warm surface layer.  Here is the 12z euro valid 12z friday. note the heavy amounts and the much colder temps along that stripe across central ga/sc. 

20 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

The trend nobody wanted, is happening!  Warmer sucks! But I need the rain, so I like warmer and more precip!!

i think you need to ease back on the sarcasm and everything a little. 

This run of the euro was a good step in the right direction for many...it has quite a bit more precipitation further inland than the prior run and temps aloft look similar to me. Euro is plenty cold aloft for northern half of georgia, sc/western nc. 

2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

CMC is always the coldest model !

Classic class of the USRA screwzone thanks to lack of surface cooling...which it shows on th e 12z run as well......although i think it's out to lunch on that. Canadian is sort of by itself with the degree of warmth/higher dewpoints in the lowest 50mb. Other models are showing there are no appreciable difference in airmass where i'm at and the upstate/west ga in the low levels ...so i would expect similar cooling here after onset as everywhere else. . So in a rare exception, i'm tossing that depiction of warmer surface temps here if there is that much precip. Still it is painful as hell seeing it and always a concern in such a setup. I'll be heading northwest if it actually becomes a problem. 

here is the 12z uk. 

canadian doesn't look too bad....

2 minutes ago, msuwx said:

Precip shield shifted NW 20-40 miles this run. Not bad.

yeah...the shift is pretty big compared to the 0z run....not there yet but it obviously trended in the right direction. 

5 minutes ago, msuwx said:

I think some areas could get a slushy dusting or so....... but it's threading the needle. I went into it in detail in my video today. 

I'm just excited we have something already.

that's the truth. A dusting or something would be nice but i'd be happy with just seeing flakes....although it surely would make my craving for a big snow jump by several orders of magnitude lol

14 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

I cant complain about a free resource but its almost 10:30 and we're still on 75. 

Yeah it's painfully slow in fact. It's still worth the wait sometimes because it shows more levels than many  sites...like 975, 925, 875, 825, 775mb, and 725mb on the text soundings.   Makes it a lot easier to get a handle on those pesky warm noses. 

12 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Good point... As we all have said, upper levels are fine. This battle will be fought in the lowest layer for the posters out my way.

Yep,  Looking at soundings, cold air will not be much of a problem even if there is a northwest trend....unless it's a HUGE northwest trend.  Yes surface temps start off warm at the surface thursday afternoon/evening but the air aloft is cold...and wetbulb zero heights are very low...even well to the south. If precip starts overnight thursay/early friday...Combo of CAA/evap cooling will  bring surface temps down pretty quickly if there is enough precip to do so...despite no near by cold/dry source at the surface to the northeast.   The cold/dry air aloft is far enough sough that  there is even some wiggle room for us in north ga/sc too if there is a big nw trend. Pretty strange to be honest to be in this situation because 99/100 times the lowest 50mb won't cool enough/low level cold is blocked by the mountains in my neck of the woods. But we are lucky here in that there is quite a delay between the initial front and the precip which allows a lot of time for drier and colder air aloft to move in. 

My biggest fear is there just won't be enough or much precip. However, given the history with these types of events, one would think that it ends up wetter and further northwest than first advertised. Even if amounts are light though, i would think that at least many of us will see some token flakes. This time of year and this type of setup that's a big win where i'm at. 

9 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

I use this site for soundings. They are a little slow to update but the soundings are solid. Just click on the map for the sounding and then adjust the position of it, it even gives a text output option which is very useful.

Sounding Link

an old one but good one....one of the first ones to offer point and click soundings. You are right though they are slower to update.  

7 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

You remember what a warm nose did to our storm back in January?  (that was way less marginal looking than this one)

I think some wet snow is possible for the climatologically favored areas in the NW (of raleigh), but anything else is a cold rain with some flakes mixed in at times.

Let's be clear about the threat of  where any warm noses are...those on the northwest fringe of this (hopeful) precip shield shouldn't have much, if any, threat of warm noses...back across north ga/western carolinas. Of course that could change if this shifts markedly northwest but right now it's quite cold aloft in these areas.  If there is appreciable precip, temps should be plenty cold enough in the 85 corridor/western half of nc with very low freezing levels/wetbulb zero heights. But that's the main question, will there be enough precip to matter and take advantage of it. 

On 1/19/2017 at 8:02 AM, Lookout said:

one place where winter is not over is alaska...some brutal cold up there the past few days..with actual surface temps into the -50s...with windchills into the -70s....with likely some areas into the -80s. (one station i looked at yesterday had a windchill of -79).

 

Got down to -62 below at kanuti lake, ak and -61 below at bettles field. 

incredibly though...temperatures have risen some 50 degrees in the past 24 hours or so in some places....but to think they are STILL below zero. hard to believe. 

Date

(AKST)
Temp

(F)
Precip
Accumulated
(inches)
1 Hour
Precip
(inches)
3 Hour
Precip
(inches)
6 Hour
Precip
(inches)
24 Hour
Precip
(inches)
Snow
Depth
(inches)
Snowfall
3 Hour
(inches)
Snowfall
6 Hour
(inches)
Snowfall
24 Hour
(inches)
24 Hr
Max
(F)
24 Hr
Min
(F)
20 Jan 9:00 am	-34	1.50	0.10				59.00	48.00	49.00	49.00		
20 Jan 8:00 am	-38	1.40					10.00	0.00		0.00		
20 Jan 7:00 am	-40	1.40					10.00	0.00		0.00		
20 Jan 6:00 am	-42	1.50					11.00	1.00	1.00	1.00		
20 Jan 5:00 am	-44	1.50					10.00		0.00	0.00		
20 Jan 4:00 am	-46	1.50					10.00		0.00	0.00		
20 Jan 3:00 am	-47	1.50					10.00	0.00	0.00	0.00		
20 Jan 2:00 am	-48	1.50					28.00	18.00	12.00	18.00		
20 Jan 1:00 am	-50	1.60					16.00	6.00	6.00	6.00		
20 Jan 12:00 am	-52	1.60					10.00	0.00		0.00	-52	-62
19 Jan 11:00 pm	-53	1.70					10.00		0.00	0.00		
19 Jan 10:00 pm	-56	1.90			0.30		10.00	0.00	0.00	0.00		
19 Jan 9:00 pm	-59	2.00		0.20	0.40		10.00		0.00	0.00		
19 Jan 8:00 pm	-59	2.00	0.10	0.20	0.30	0.10	16.00	6.00	6.00	6.00		
19 Jan 7:00 pm	-59	1.90	0.10	0.30			10.00	0.00	0.00	0.00		
19 Jan 6:00 pm	-59	1.80		0.20			16.00	6.00	6.00	6.00		
19 Jan 5:00 pm	-57	1.80	0.20	0.10		0.10	10.00	0.00	0.00	0.00		
19 Jan 4:00 pm	-56	1.60					10.00	0.00	0.00	0.00		
19 Jan 3:00 pm	-54	1.60					10.00	0.00	0.00	0.00		
19 Jan 2:00 pm	-54	1.70					10.00	0.00	0.00	0.00		
19 Jan 1:00 pm	-56	1.90				0.10	10.00	0.00	0.00	0.00		
19 Jan 12:00 pm	-59	2.30				0.30	10.00	0.00	0.00	0.00		
19 Jan 11:00 am	-60	2.40				0.40	10.00	0.00	0.00	0.00		
19 Jan 10:00 am	-60	2.40				0.40	10.00	0.00	0.00	0.00		
19 Jan 9:00 am	-61	2.50	0.10	0.10	0.20	0.60	10.00	0.00	0.00	0.00		
19 Jan 8:00 am	-61	2.40			0.10	0.60	10.00	0.00	0.00	0.00		
19 Jan 7:00 am	-61	2.40			0.20	0.70	10.00	0.00	0.00	0.00		
19 Jan 6:00 am	-61	2.40		0.10	0.20	0.80	10.00	0.00	0.00			
19 Jan 5:00 am	-61	2.40		0.10	0.30	1.00	10.00	0.00	0.00	0.00		
19 Jan 4:00 am	-61	2.40	0.10	0.20	0.30	1.00	10.00	0.00	0.00			
19 Jan 3:00 am	-61	2.30		0.10	0.30	0.90	10.00	0.00	0.00			
19 Jan 2:00 am	-60	2.30	0.10	0.20	0.40	0.90	10.00	0.00	0.00			
19 Jan 1:00 am	-60	2.20		0.10	0.30	0.80	10.00	0.00	0.00			
19 Jan 12:00 am	-61	2.20	0.10	0.20	0.40	0.80	10.00	0.00	0.00		-49	-61
18 Jan 11:00 pm	-60	2.10		0.20	0.40	0.70	10.00	0.00	0.00			
18 Jan 10:00 pm	-59	2.10	0.10	0.20	0.40	0.60	10.00	0.00	0.00			
18 Jan 9:00 pm	-59	2.00	0.10	0.20	0.40	0.50	10.00	0.00	0.00			
18 Jan 8:00 pm	-59	1.90		0.20	0.20	0.40	10.00	0.00	0.00			
18 Jan 7:00 pm	-59	1.90	0.10	0.20	0.10	0.40	10.00	0.00	0.00			
18 Jan 6:00 pm	-57	1.80	0.10	0.20		0.30	10.00	0.00	0.00			
18 Jan 5:00 pm	-56	1.70				0.20	10.00	0.00	0.00			
18 Jan 4:00 pm	-54	1.70	0.10			0.20	10.00	0.00	0.00			
18 Jan 3:00 pm	-50	1.60				0.10	10.00	0.00	0.00			
18 Jan 2:00 pm	-49	1.70				0.20	10.00	0.00	0.00			
18 Jan 1:00 pm	-53	1.80			0.10	0.30	10.00	0.00	0.00			
18 Jan 12:00 pm	-56	2.00		0.10	0.40	0.50	10.00	0.00				
18 Jan 11:00 am	-59	2.00		0.20	0.60	0.50	10.00	0.00	0.00			
18 Jan 10:00 am	-58	2.00	0.10	0.30	0.60		10.00	0.00				

one place where winter is not over is alaska...some brutal cold up there the past few days..with actual surface temps into the -50s...with windchills into the -70s....with likely some areas into the -80s. (one station i looked at yesterday had a windchill of -79).

3 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Wow!  We're desperate if we're pulling out the German model.

Nein snow for you!!

I've been following it for a year or two and  Like every model it is hit or miss. I haven't noticed any consistent glaring errors though. 

2 hours ago, FLO said:

So I guess only certain people are allowed  to post in the main thread. All I did was quote Buckeye's post about the GSP statement and how I don't consider it very encouraging looking at the recent model trends and it gets deleted. This place is like a high school clique. 

It's got nothing at all to do with that. There is a good reason we hide comments/posts  like that...and that is to keep the more in depth posts and info to from being  buried so quickly...and to make the more informative posts easier to find. If we let all the "i love/hate this run",  "how much for mby", or "it's not very encouraging" posts everyone would quickly get annoyed and those who take the time to make in depth and useful posts are almost wasting their time because their efforts are soon to be buried 10 pages back..and a lot of people don't have time to spend an hour skimming back through the thread to find a few good posts buried in a sea of much less useful stuff.

. This is why we ask folks to keep that type of stuff in threads like this or the banter thread.  Sure we miss some but we don't sit back and pick and choose who is allowed to post trivial stuff or not. You have to remember you don't see most of the things we end up hiding/deleting which includes posts from everyone.