Lookout

2 hours ago, packbacker said:

LOL....I noticed that more and more about social media "mets" it's taboo to discuss model runs or upcoming cold or warmth or really anything that would seem contrarian.

what lame comments . One reason people don't post much about it is because you have to pay for it and sites like ours can get in trouble if people post too much of it is. Second, wtf does he think people are going to do?...."hey everyone...let's talk and hype up about the much more dry and boring euro! whoo hoo!".  Fact is, there is a major forecasting model that is showing the potential for a significant winter storm...naturally people are going to talk and post about it. And i have yet to see anyone who has claimed they know exactly what it's going to do...in fact just the 180 degree opposite and people are simply discussing the possibilities and what needs to happen for it to be right....so nice strawman there fella..  Ugh...guess it's a good thing we have such huge geniuses like that around telling us such obvious things like.."no one knows what it's going to do". 

11 minutes ago, Thrasher Fan said:

Prayers to the mods.

The next 4 days are going to be a mess around here.

lol..thanks. It'll be ok if the models hold on and we all get blasted but if it starts to trend in a negative direction...that's when it goes down hill quick. 

6 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I hate waiting because I think of a million things that can go wrong between now and then and more often than not some little minor detail ends up throwing everything off.

One of the things that i find most bothersome is just how exhausted i am by the time it gets here because it becomes so time consuming. If there is a legit threat, it's hard to do anything else but read the board, refresh models, compare them to previous runs and each other, etc...etc. Nothing else gets done or seems to matter....we are all sick lol. 

5 minutes ago, BillT said:

this is something i dont understand.....a snow event would impact a very wide area and everybody that lives there yet they hesitate to even mention snow 3 or 4 days out, BUT a potential tornado event if it verifies only impacts a very small portion of the area and most of the people in the area have no impact, but they will harp on them a week in advance.

and if it doesn't materialize it's not considered a huge bust and people don't throw fits. Same goes for heavy rain. 

 I understand the tax payer money issue..where if a storm is forecast a lot is spent on roads, services, etc and you don't want to forecast a huge storm and end up wasting money but what situation would you rather have your viewers/public  in...caught out in the middle of a big snow/ice event and bad roads because the forecast wasn't bullish enough... Or people being caught out in the rain or dry weather?  Of course a lot of this is because the public blows up in anger if a storm isn't as bad as advertised yet isn't nearly as negative when they are caught out in it. It's all backwards honestly.  

it's funny that these days local stations/mets can no longer totally ignore threats in the long range because of social media. Which already has caused one of the local mets in atlanta to acknowledging the possible threat a little while ago.  But i had to laugh when she said knew people would be seeing all kinds of scary maps from "dubious sources"....like um..actual model progs? I like her, she's a good met and realize it's smart to lower expectations (joanne feldman) but that was a bit much. 

I have been following you guys from board to board since the WWBB days and I still believe the core of Southeast posters that have hung together since those days and some of the new members that have latched on since are, by far, the best on AMWX. Glad to be a small part of a great group of people.

I've always believed the southeast group is the best for multiple reasons. I've said it for years and years and I'm also so proud to be apart of it. In fact, I've heard that same thing from quite a few people.

I wouldn't say we are small anymore though. Our membership has exploded over the last few years. Which makes it even more impressive that we are so good because when you have that many people, normally you have a lot of bad apples.

Do we have some weenies and annoying posters? Sure.... but compared to other subforums, man, it's so much better. Aside from the bad apples/weenies, everyone is a class act and knows their stuff.

To everyone here, especially the good ones...and you know who you are, thank you for being so great. Don't let anyone tell you another region is any better.

Thanks, Lookout! Much appreciated, especially when coming from a class act and knowledgeable poster as yourself! I would say that Perry is WAY more knowledgeable than me regarding W and SW metro Atlanta for sure. Also, he has the first hand DETAILED reports from relatives that go so far back. My pre-1978 ATL wx related posts have been official/newspaper/city oriented since neither I nor any relatives were in ATL. My personal experiences are much more recent and largely northern burb oriented since I've lived in the N burbs since 1980. OTOH, even his own experiences in/near Douglasville go back well into the 60's. I think he was born around 1961. So, I wouldn't put myself ahead of him by any means in the overall Atlanta metro related wx history category and I'd clearly be behind in certain aspects. Regardless, I do think our posts do well together since we have different perspectives. Aside: I do feel I win the Savannah wx history category easily since nobody else posts regularly about historical Savannah wx events. Fewer seem to care about Savannah I assume since fewer members live in that area.

You and Perry are certainly THE two GA legends of WWBB. Also, it is time to talk about Lookout, himself. You, yourself, were THE only regular NE GA poster on WWBB as I recall when I arrived in Dec. '01. You have represented NE GA quite well since at least when I started at WWBB. Your very detailed posts about your backyard obs have been second to none. Also, your passion for exciting/stormy/wintry wx has been hard to beat. Through your detailed posts and obs., the reader has been able to experience the events as if they were actually living there. Also, your wx knowledge has to be among the top of all WWBB veteran amateurs. This includes CAD, among other wx phenomena. Your CAD posts and knowledge have always been top notch and have taught me things to help here in Atlanta during CAD. Also, you still know much more than me when it comes to reading soundings. You've been quite generous in sharing the sounding info in posts during wintry precip. events, including those for KATL when I've requested. Furthermore your general model interpretation skills for N GA are hard to beat.

The non-GA folks are probably getting nauseous from our mutual GA poster complimenting by this point lol.

Edit: Not to get too offtrack but : Although he's much newer, Tony (dsaur) is probably the new #1 poster when it comes to longtime personal and very detailed Atlanta area historical wx posts that go back prior to the late 1970's. I think I've seen some as far back as the 1950's. I especially love his accounts of old ZR (especially Jan. 1973) and old IP storms in the ATL area. Plus he makes me lol constantly.

They'll have to deal with it lol

We don't talk about ourselves very much anyway. Besides, I don't think anyone from the carolinas mind because the carolina folks are class acts. That is why we have always gotten along and they are such a great group on this board..maybe the best.

But Wow Larry, I don't know what to say. I really really appreciate such kind words. And as you said, coming from someone like yourself, who I have so much respect for, being such a great poster, being so respectful to everyone, and being so knowledgeable that really means lot...it truly does. I don't know if I'm as good as you say I am but thank you so very much.

You might not agree but I don't think *anyone*, including perry, is more knowledgeable about atlanta weather, climo, and history as you since you started posting. Perry was great as far as history and storms long ago but the research and data you post is just incredible and there is no one on this board that I've ever seen post the things you do. I'm dead serious about that.

I just wish you would do it for athens

Anyway, your post made me blush actually lol. But I'm so grateful though that we have you.

Once again though, I truly am blown away by your very kind words. I truly do thank you Larry and it really means a lot to me

Lookout,

My guess is that you're referring to the excellent poster, Perry/(later SouthernWx), someone for whom I have deep respect due to his knowledge of Atlanta area wx history and his ability to make very interesting and informative posts about it. This knowledge is partially due to his excellent records/recall from his older relatives, including one of his grandmothers, that cover as far back as at least to the 1940's. I wish he would resume his frequent posting, but I know his health isn't great. He helped inspire me to post similar Atlanta related info though from a somewhat different perspective (library based microfilmed ATL newspapers a big source instead of relatives since I'm from Savannah; also, mine was centered more on Atlanta, itself, as opposed to his family's area W and SW of town). Due to this, some have gotten us two mixed up, which was always an honor for me. I didn't join WWBB until much later....late 2001 (so, I'm a relative newbie in comparison) when I posted those op. GFS (then called MRF/AVN) cold bias tests ad nauseum during that winter of false frigid alarms on the MRF/AVN. I think even you got sick of them..can't blame you lol...but I still don't regret doing them because the bias was absurdly ridiculous and I thought that was the best way to display it.

Let me know if it is Perry. I'm just educatedly guessing.

That's him, thanks for reminding me. He also posted at the Ga weather forum too. His posts were always fascinating to read and we had some great discussions. Not sure why he stopped posting but at the time, I don't think it was because of health reasons. I think part of the problem was he took things really personally at times unfortunately and he sort of changed. Of course I could be totally wrong about that as I never asked him about his personal life. I think he liked it a lot better too when it was a lot smaller group.

I hate we lost him and certainly wish he would resume his posting, assuming he's able to. He was a great poster..and you are absolutely right, he knew nearly the same amount of historical weather as you did...and that is saying something.

lol at you saying you are a newbie. 11 years is no noob my friend But yeah, you sure harped on it that damn cold bias back then didn't you? I remember getting annoyed about you harping on that and climo, no matter what the setup was Of course you was right quite a bit of the time and it was always interesting to see who would "win" on a winter event.

But of course you are one of the best posters not only in the SE forum but this entire forum... without question. No one and I mean no one can match your research and knowledge in terms of historical weather, climo, etc. I sure hope you don't do a vanishing act too now lol because your knowledge is just amazing. You make the group from Ga proud and you make me proud as well.

We are really really lucky to have you now and to have had you for so long.

You always liked Jeremy best!

Except when it comes to nfl football

But I've only known him on these boards for what 14 years jeremy? I think it was 1998 or something like that when we first "meet" on wwbb...same for HKY. At the time, along with RW, and the guy from Ga I can't even remember his name, that was pretty much it as far as the SE group(hard to believe our group was so small back then compared to now). There might have been more but At least they are the ones I remember the most but you are talking over a decade and nearly a half ago. (getting old) We are apart of the old guard that's for sure so he absolutely he is one of my favorites.

Panthers suck

Jeremy did such a great job on this..absolutely spot on everything... and I'm happy it's been brought back and pinned. Jeremy, you are the man.

Noobies/new members, and even members who have been around awhile should read it through several times. It will save you from being warned/punished and save us mods a lot of trouble.

And kudos to michelle for bumping it.

Why was the picture of my girlfriend deleted?

I didn't do it, another mod from another region had to.

Glad you think the mods here are a joke since you have been virtually protected for a long time because of your seniority. In fact, I have done so a lot because a lot of times I think you are funny as hell. I've actually been one of your biggest fans for a long time, despite getting complaints.

But The fact is some of your comments were over the line, inappropriate, and offensive. It's one thing to say such things in OT, but those type of comments won't be tolerated on the weather side. Whether you think we are a joke or not is irrelevant, which many would disagree with you btw, I (we) won't tolerate some of the things that went on this thread again. (not just including you either)

Fair warning widre, keep that type of stuff to OT. Otherwise there won't be any problems...and that goes for everyone else too.

Not sure why this thread suddenly turned into this mess, but the next person who posts anything inappropriate and offensive is going to get suspended and those who have already know who you are. I mean seriously, WTF people?

My apologies to those who were offended, can't speak for weathernc, but i've not been able to be online since I think saturday.

Working hard as usual today

You are a beautiful person. Very nice pic.

Here's a picture I took yesterday with my phone while I was bored at work. Sorry Joel...no duckface in this one

Awesome

As always, you are looking good buckeye. (especially the first one lol)

I know I have looked like a total liar about posting another pic...but to be honest with you, I just keep forgetting. I still haven't found my usb cable, which again I keep forgetting about, but I'll see about getting one today while I'm thinking about it. That way you all can make fun of me and see how stupid I look

Thanks guys....great to be back!

What took you so long? You were one of the originals back in the day. It's good to see you here...just be sure to post a lot.

Taken last night while playing with my daughters tablet.

Wow

I don't know why lookout is so shy...he's just as hot as you are

I really appreciate the kind words but that's insane She's a lot better looking than I am.

I don't know why he is either, but I'm waiting patiently for a new picture from him

I haven't forgotten and am not trying delay it and renege on my promise, just to let you know. I know I said i was going to do it by now but as is usual with me, I screw it up lol. I was going to post one yesterday but I couldn't find my camera. I'm going to try and find it today and Will take one and post it as soon as i find it...hopefully

Not sure why you want to see my eyes btw, they are nothing special lol

Lookout....we are still waiting

Here is one of me and a friend before the New Year

I haven't forgotten...well sort of lol. I forgot about it the last day or two but remembered this morning... but have to take off here in a bit. But I promise to post one before the end of the week. Just don't go run and hide after seeing it lol

Another nice pic btw

I saw your pic before man, you look normal, not stupid. Quit being so hard on yourself and post away.

Thanks but I have to disagree

Thanks Lookout

This....post a picture without the sunglasses

Your'e welcome. You do look good in those pics

Nice to hear you want me to embarrass myself again

I'll see about taking a pic today or tomorrow without the glasses..if I get up enough nerve that is lol.

It was fine dude. Go ahead and repost it.

I actually forgot about my post until now

Anywho...Thanks, but I thought, as usual, I looked rather stupid lol

Wow your Son has gotten big! You have a beautiful family

I can't see you

I loved the picture you posted in the OT thread, but this time I think you should post one without the sunglasses so we can see your eyes

This isn't recent...but it will do for now They were taken during our family photo shoot the end of July

You're crazy lol I normally wear sunglasses so that's why I had them on...plus it makes me look a little less ugly I've always thought but I could be wrong lol. I got to leave here in a bit and probably won't have time until tomorrow or friday but I'll think about embarrassing myself some more and take a new pic without the glasses lol

But on the other hand, you look great in those. I don't think I've ever seen your pic before but for some reason that's what I thought you would look like. You make a lot better picture than I do, that's for sure

I'm curious, how many saw my picture in the OT thread? I hate having my picture taken because I think I look pretty dumb which is why it took so long for me to get up the nerve to do it LOL. But if not many saw it, I've been thinking about reposting it here. Just so everyone would know how silly I look. I might take a new one, maybe with my dogs or something, but it probably will be the same embarrassing one as before

Been following this bering sea storm for several days now. I follow alaska weather almost as much as i do here (sometimes more when it's slow) so I read their afds almost every day and I've never seen such strong wording from Fairbanks as I have with this storm (which isn't a surprise given how strong it is).

I know this area is notorious for it's big storms and hurricane force gusts are not unusual but Fairbanks mentions in their discussion of winds gusting to 100mph. It amazes me a non tropical low can get to as low as 940 to 945mb with winds that high at the surface. The lowest pressure for an extratropical low btw is 927mb that was recorded at dutch harbor, Ak in 1977.

I saw a 86mph wind gust was reported at nome on the news this morning.

Also saw a story on the aspects of the storm surge and how the lack of sea ice is expected to allow the storm surge to be higher...as sea ice can diminish the potential storm surge somewhat. Amazing storm, wish I could experience something like that.

Here's the pic I posted in the other thread. Will likely post a new on here in the next day or two. Might take one next to the lake to show how low it is.

I understand that infrastructure was compromised from morning convection, but this is my opportunity to preach preparedness. Many large events are often preceded by morning convection, some of which is severe and does damage. Especially with an event as well forecast as this, I don't think there should be thousands of people being caught off guard. A $20 weather radio with back up batteries can go a long way. For every inconvenience of being woken up in the middle of the night for a false alarm, there is a life saved and that's worth it.

I know it pains me to hear these stories about "no warning" when in reality it was not receiving a warning. I can't imagine how it feels for the many, many warning forecasters out there who issued good warnings but had people perish anyway. I have already heard some disturbing reactions from the higher ups in DC, and it will be very interesting to see how the service assessment plays out. Will it be a blame game or will we actually figure out some new ways to reach people and disseminate the message.

I tell you what a big problem is...many people don't think it could happen to them. I don't know how many times I've heard people say "ah, ain't nothing going to happen here". It's maddening to hear this thought process. I bet some of these people didn't think there was a real chance of anything happening to them either so they just shrugged it off.

Of course I don't know that for sure but just based on so many people I know thinking like this, I don't see why it wouldn't be prevalent elsewhere.

happen to catch who? I'd be curious if it was one of the forecasters or someone higher up.

IIRC, and it's possible I'm mistaken, but I think it was Greg Carbin.

Yeah, the fact that some of the most violent and long-lived twisters hit highly populated areas really made heavy casualites inevitible, unfortunately.

Fatalities-wise, this may end up close to the Super Outbreak, but in terms of scope, not quite. 1974 had strong/violent tornados from the deep South all the way up to nearly Canada...13 different states, I believe.

The super outbreak might have covered a larger area but the concentration of so many tornadoes over a smaller area makes this more impressive in some ways.

What a horrific year though. Before this outbreak, there was a report on tv there had been 70 billion dollars worth of damage so far this year or that would be the expected number for the season. That number is going to rise obviously.

CNN now saying 230+ dead

If true, there is a shot we could over the superoutbreak death toll

Just now on fox they had someone from the SPC on and they were comparing this one with the super outbreak they made a very good point..and that is the warning system, communications, and building codes are so much better today than then that for the death toll to be even in shouting distance of the super outbreak is incredible and speaks volumes.

CNN/FOX spending most of their time on the Royal wedding with only blips about the tornadoes

I don't know, fox is doing a good job of it this morning I think...unlike yesterday. CNN on the other hand just keeps wanting to talk about the fooking wedding and politics. MSNBC seems to be covering it the least of all of them.

I was absolutely enraged yesterday when all 3 networks were ignoring what was happening. Even while BHM was being demolished they couldn't drag themselves away from the stupid obama birth certificate nonsense and the wedding garbage.

But last night I witnessed one of the most maddening things ever in terms of coverage. Local fox station in atlanta would not break away from american fooking idol while there were at least reports at the time of a mile wide tornado heading toward a major city in their viewing area, Rome. And of course this was the same storm/tornado that destroyed tuscaloosa and bhm. Even more disgusting was their own met, ken kook, broke in for about 30 seconds in a little window actually saying the tornado was a mile wide and heading toward rome before going back to idol :axe:

I was so angered by this last night I was screaming and cursing them like you wouldn't believe. Absolutely disgusted by it and have sent a very strong complaint into them about it. For all we know some lives were lost because they decided to cover a meaningless pile of sh*t that doesn't mean a damn thing compared to the destruction that was going on. And then of course after idol was over, they were pimping themselves as being the best covering it...when they were the ONLY station not showing constant coverage. I wanted to puke.

I have made it my mission to get anyone I can to complain to them. For anyone who is interested, below is their webpage.

www.myfoxatlanta.com

btw, just to be clear their met, ken kook, is really the only met in atlanta worth anything..indeed he is very very good..which made it more sickening. Obviously this was station managements call, not his, so I don't want to throw him into the fire with them.