ers-wxman1

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Thank you. I think about it a lot. One of my regrets is that when I decided to go the direction of sociology and education that I didn’t just finish the meteorology degree. It would have taken another year and a lot of hard core math/physics and at 20 that felt like forever but in hindsight 20 years later...I should have done it. It’s not that I regret my education career. I love teaching. But it’s way easier to get into education later (the whole field is kind of tailored to that) than meteorology. 

Right now with a mortgage and 2 young kids going back to school just isn’t possible. Maybe in 10 or 15 years when my wife has restarted her career and we have some savings that might be an option. But by then I’ll be in the same position Bob is. I still might do it just not to have that regret in life. And meteorology is something I could see doing later in life. I can’t see myself still doing what I do now at 65+. Takes too much physical toll. 

One thing I’ve considered doing now is starting a video stream on FB or YouTube. Something like what JB does only real analysis not smoke up your arse BS.  If it developed enough viewers that could bring in some small pocket cash from ad revenues.  Any revenues at all from something I do everyday anyways would be a win imo but I doubt I could attract enough followers. 

I would certainly promote your work and try to gain some exposure for you. Thanks for all of your work on here.

8 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

I’m genuinely into it, would it be a good topic to study in school and do as a job? I’ve heard it requires a lot of calculus in College... which I’m ready for!

The Atmospheric Science/Meteorology track is heavily weighted on calculus and physics. It’s a bear. 

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Relfecting back on my entire life I've often wondered if I missed my niche path. I read meteorology textbooks in college for fun. Lol. Who does that?

It's a tough field to excel financially and that is what held me back. This was before I knew about prop energy trading firms and how much they pay for an edge in wx prediction. 

Salary starts low but you’ll get where you need to be. I started as a GS5 step 1, I’m now going into a 13 step 8. That plus all the OT with storm activations and you do very well.

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Relfecting back on my entire life I've often wondered if I missed my niche path. I read meteorology textbooks in college for fun. Lol. Who does that?

It's a tough field to excel financially and that is what held me back. This was before I knew about prop energy trading firms and how much they pay for an edge in wx prediction. 

I updated my post above. You and PSU would be great at WPC or CPC. The way to go for good salary/benefits is NWS/NOAA.  I’ve had a wonderful 20 year career. You can move around as well. Energy firms pay more but much more stress. 

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If next year is anything like this year I'm retiring from this dumb hobby. I was semi retired in the fall but old habits die hard I suppose

Or you can cross the abyss into my world and get paid to do it. I enjoy your posts and expertise. If you and PSU Hoffman ever decide on a Met career I think you’d be a great asset to either WPC or CPC with your knack for pattern recognition and analysis. 

Progressive pattern with no chance of locking in arctic air for any substantial amount of time, at least through the next two weeks. 

00z ICON continues to hold serve for significant icing. CAD impressive.

6 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said:

This thread has been on repeat all winter. Chasing unicorns

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

Take this over to banter and stop ruining things for those of us that actually analyze the situation and make productive posts. 

59 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said:

Can we just stick a fork in this thread? Maybe models will trend in the right direction, but let's just move on to Jan 24th, start that thread.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

So all of our analysis goes to pot? That’s the way events roll. You don’t shut off a thread because an event doesn’t work out.

12z ICON holds serve, tad colder with snow transitioning to freezing rain. CAD holds on until 03z Sunday. Significant icing. 

Different look to the NAM this morning. Less WAA, more frontal passage. Right in tune with the way this winter has been going.

Icing events are among the most difficult patterns to predict in the MA. Low 30s won’t cut it for optimal accretion. Ideal is less than 30F and rates come into play. Strength of the WAA and resilience of the CAD. I’ve never seen any model handle it perfectly in this area, not even the colder solutions. 

cant rely on the globals to analyze a CAD setup like this. 

Not much to go on with the ICON being such a new model. GFS is likely too warm. Given the strength and depth of that high   plus source region, likely to see temps on the colder side of guidance and hanging in longer. Temps not an issue. 

00z ICON continues to be a significant icing event for Saturday. At 12z Saturday the freezing line is wedged all the way down into NC. Doesn’t get above freezing in DC until 03z Sunday.  

2 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said:

guys the front thump 3k is clearly a lot drier, a met just confirmed this JFC

3k NAM shouldn’t even be looked at in this range. Precip isn’t even close to our area. 

Just now, Baltimorewx said:

That said, the 3K is more reliable than 12K no? 3K will be in range tommorw morning i guess

12k is ok, bit wet, but more so the pattern change with more vorticity leading ahead of the main system out west and a pronounced cold wedge. 

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

He’s looking at whatever the maps at TT tell him. He’s downplayed the whole event and is now looking for anything that will make him appear to right.

Unreal. We’ve been saying it all along about the icon on TT. Posts like that just muddle the forum.

1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said:

That will be all ice!

18z ICON slowed the precip down a bit, However, keeps a solid CAD feature in place. Signal is there for a decent icing event. 

4 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said:

18z ICON all rain

What are you looking at? The model doesn’t show sleet/freezing rain. I’m seeing a good CAD all the way past 21z.

Should never count things out until you see the whites of its eyes for situations like this. Around here all it takes is a glaze on roads, trees, and power lines in the 20s to have significant impacts. 

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

OK...this really is my last post...

So the main mid level WAA is still aimed well to our northwest but look at the secondary mid level vorticity maximum and kink in the flow aimed at/attacking the CAD in the Mid Atlantic.  This is the kind of thing the globals are not going to pick up at 4/5 days out and is a realistic option to hope for a better result.  That is what is fueling the little thump on the NAM.  

Not saying it is right...we been through this dance with the NAM before...that that is a realistic way to eek out a back door win in this situation.  

 

This is why the globals should be looked at it with a grain of salt in the medium range with CAD situations. I like to use the medium range globals to give a general pattern depiction then go on what we know to happen in these situations. Even the mesoscale models struggle. 

18z NAM could certainly give those from Loudoun to central MD a couple inches before the transition.