ers-wxman1

18z 12k NAM holds serve, bit more energized than 12z. Moderate snow to start then to mix, break then freezing rain. Not bad considering where we were 24 hours ago.

12z Icon has an impressive icing event. TT maps do not show sleet/freezing rain but 2m temp contours show it not getting above freezing until after 00z Sunday with decent QPF. Much of the area west of the fall line stays in the 20s into the afternoon. 

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Weenie rulebook: when NC is getting CAD snow on a west track we're getting hit solid

And when the CAD wedge goes through Atlanta! Solid! 

Start a new thread. We are 74 pages in on this one. 

Guidance finally coming around to reality for this event. 1040 high in the right place with insitu damming will yield a more entrenched airmass. Models, particularly the globals are almost always underdone and or too aggressive on eroding this feature out. 

CAD is almost always underdone in the guidance. As strong of a high that is being sampled here, would expect a strong footprint, tougher to erode. 

1”/hr rates as progged by the mesoscale models will quickly overcome the BL issues, even some main roads. It won’t take much this time of the year. 

This is a legitimate event for us. The 500 pattern looks good. Ridge out west is in the right place, the 500 trough is deepening as it crosses the Appalachians, heights falling as it crosses to our south, coastal even pops closer to the Delmarva. It has room to become more than what it is but rates will be there. I’m usually pessimistic on here, but this is a threat. West of 95 has a legit shot at 2-4, with 1-2 from about Fairfax to DC. Wouldn’t be surprised if someone in the subforum got 5”. 

I’m impressed at how this thing is evolving. The 500 pattern is close to an even bigger event. 

18z NAM going bonkers over us.

Just returned from a two day trip to Snowshoe. Some of the worst ski conditions in recent memory there. We at least went from 40 and rain to 20 and 2-4” last night which was for the moment a fun event. So weird though to not even see a single old snow pile anywhere on the drive up on Friday with dense fog and temps near 50 all the way to Cass. 

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

18z RGEM is 2"-4"... so I dunno

Moved the best snows SE compared to its 12z run and did look an inch drier in its accumulations... but still leaned toward the 18z GFS

Also indicated some decent banding around 08z to 11z

Boundary layer temps, antecedent warm ground, rates, all dicey. 

GFS may still be having boundary layer issues, too cold. Solution appears to be overdone. Siding conservative on this one. This type of setup with arctic air timing with precipitation along a front is not a favorable setup for the area. Drier and warmer solutions more likely to verify, though I still hold out hope for a dusting to an inch well N and W of 95. 

Snow flurries in Silver Spring, MD. 

Dusting. Moderate snow. 33F. 

White rain, moderate rates. Zero stickage.

Wet snow with a few pellets and some rain mixed in. 37F

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Guidance amping up slightly now. Feeling like we have a good shot at a flush hit tomorrow. 

Easy 8” up there

4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

And yet Eskimo Joe will still complain and down play it. 

He needs a snow or icepocalpse 

PSU and Eskimo Joe should score well on this event. 

Quick update from my previous post. 

MRB to Reisterstown and points north to the M/D line 5-9”.... on the higher end of this range will be areas closer to the M/D line such as Taneytown, Manchester, Pylesville, Emmitsburg, and Lineboro. 

7 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I'm not far from Reisterstown. Best news I've heard all day.

Should be good up there. 

This is clearly an event from I-81 to northern Loudoun and areas near and north of I-70 to the M/D line. 5-9 inch solid event is my call there. MRB to Reisterstown and north is jackpot zone, higher end totals closer to M/D line. 

I would be surprised to see 3-4” even out here in the Ashburn/Leesburg area. D.C. proper will be lucky to see 1”. South and east of there a dusting then rain.

I advise you all to use caution when looking at the FV3. Feedback per a recent model discussion I attended indicate it has been running too cold and wet. 

6 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Whomever made the forecasts at LWX looks to be spot on, though many of the experts here said the forecast was too bullish. They've been very good all winter IMBY. I don't know if you work there or what (I'm not into the whole forum clique that knows everyone in-person) so maybe your response was some kind of inside joke?

No inside joke here.