pazzo83

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

+EPO/+WPO floods the surface CONUS with warm air. The number 2 on record, I think? 01-02, had a similar pattern. 

https://ibb.co/VLCJDVG

We are also shattering previous records for global temperature, the chart is starting to move more exponential. 

 

yeah there are also heat records being blown away all over the planet right now.

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I saw a post from someone who has a method to predict saying it should flip in the next 1-2 years. I have no idea so all I can do is parrot. 

yeah i'd be pretty skeptical of any approach or methodology that wasn't peer reviewed.

Low of 27 here - ready for the 60s.

4 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

Much chillier feel and in actuality in northern Maryland - upper 30s on evening walk and kinda raw.  Didn’t like it. 

we got there by sundown.  Cold here now.

The **really** amazing thing is that the craft yesterday used a lot of autonomous decision making to land safely.  That's cool af.

5 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I don’t get how we haven’t been back to the moon recently. Would be the easiest win ever for whoever managed to push that mission through. I know there are plans that keep getting pushed back, but can’t help but think if you did it in the late 1960s with today’s equivalent of a box of scraps, ya should be able to pull it off today.

it's a real travesty, but hopefully we're back on track (50 years later lol)

pretty amazing this fairly small company just landed a spacecraft on the moon.

hell yes

some of you must've gotten a ton of rain today based on both the radar and the constant very dark clouds in our northern sky.

58 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

For sure. With the number of 60-70 degree days.

maybe we'll score the 80F in December (the one month we're missing)

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Alright show of hands: What masochists are gonna be in here tracking next winter? 

been here every winter since 01-02

6 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

See I’ve provided  that about 5 times and even in last 36-48 hours after the most recent 6-120 hour bust but you all won’t read it. You flare up instead almost as if addicted 

SO For one last time 

Ditch the 7+ . A lot of extended weather is corrupted for agricultural and oil futures advisements

Stop looking at weather through a microscope. It does not enhance the resolution but rather blurs it. 5 miles by 5 miles is more than enough of a close up, really 10x10.  The closer up you zoom that more the errors rapidly multiply..

Go with less calculus and more AI stipulated analog composition 

Begin to consider that earthquakes,volcanoes and huge tidal waves actually may have shifted things in some way.  Lord knows plenty buy  into gas stoves and cow farts as our ruination and the things I mentioned are 20,000X stoves and cows. 
 

if one is wedded to all is just fine now then sally forth. I recognize that to not be true and yes I say so and it bothers the huggers real bad but I have had and  do right now have my suggestions for alternatives 

 I’m not the genius who invented models so maybe go to some other real smart hands on the controls guys who actually want a better forecasting science 

 

 

let's leave aside that this answer is largely laughable and not worthy of any serious consideration.  Do you have any statistically significant evidence that decreasing the resolution on weather models improves their accuracy?

amazingly we still have some patches of snow in shaded/protected areas.  I'm honestly impressed.

1 minute ago, Ji said:

I’m good with that. I hate the sun

it's not fun when you are enjoying a nice warm day at a rooftop bar in midtown and 30 min later it's 55 and foggy.

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

It's a verifiable fact that March is the worst month of the year around here.  Bright sunshine but cold temps with that seemingly never ending biting wind.  And then there are the days where DC is warm and 70F but it's 50F and overcast here next to the bay with an onshore breeze.

yep being by the ocean or a big body of water (bay, etc) is not fun in the spring at our latitude.  Water temps still in the 40s/50s with the onshore flow.

7 hours ago, Ji said:

I hate spring so much. Summer is closer to winter at least

If you think spring is bad here try living on Long Island or coastal New England.  You can get raw 50s well into June - miserable.

6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

12z GEFS has the Aleutian High near +400dm on 2/23, then goes through 4 reloads going out into March.. over +250dm the whole time on the ensemble mean.. it's going to start warming up real quick. After the next few days, expect temps to start busting high. 

Might as well shoot for another 80+F temp in February.

4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Lots of offerings of all these indexes  that “went wrong” when really it’s our prediction methods that are the biggest problem 

definitely open to suggestions if you think there are better ways we can attempt to model the atmosphere.

34 minutes ago, mattie g said:

6 degrees below normal at Dulles is chilly...and it was chilly region-wide outside the typical UHI areas.

I feel that it's disingenuous to use obs at DCA and BWI as examples to disprove the notion of a day or period being cold.

DCA's temps are fairly representative of an area where over a million people live, so I wouldn't say it's that disingenuous.  "Outside the typical UHI areas" is lol - that's where most people live!

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

CWG: “quite a chilly morning around the DC area”

-1F BN at BWI

normal or slightly above at DCA?

IAD did get to 22

any time DCA gets below freezing it's considered "cold" now

8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It isn’t over. Just wait. But what will come are the miserable events. Anomalous cold, tainted by the fact that it’s during a warmer climate period like April, wind, even snow that falls and somehow melts faster than it came. I hate the next two months more than I hate July and August and that’s saying a lot.

I tend to like April, but if you are along the coast in the NE (NYC, and even worse, Boston), it can suck.  I remember days in NYC where you'd be enjoying a nice spring day, temps in the mid 70s, then BAM - wind shifts to the southeast and you get the marine layer coming in.  Fog and temps 45-55 for days.  Meanwhile it's still warm further west.

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Somebody start the thread where we look for 70s and 80s. If it’s not going to snow, let it be warm at least 

70s could be next week

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

I thought DMV was expensive, but VT isn't that much cheaper. Out west, same.

lots of places (that are desirable) have caught up to us.  For example, a $1M house in Denver or Boulder doesn't get you much these days, similar to parts of DC.

you are closer to Montreal if you live way up towards the Canadian border though - although might want to brush up on your French lol.

High of 50, low of 25 here.  Pleasant this afternoon, snow remains in some shaded spots.