pazzo83

2 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

My whole point is not to be a downer, but the opposite.  Stats say these bad years recently are aberrations and that we should have some good years coming soon!  Like, good, big years!!

i mean there is some statistical validity to saying "we're due" - absolutely.

47 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

The problem with the mean is that the distribution is becoming increasingly skewed because the mean is low and bounded by zero.  N=136 is a healthy sample size. 

 

that's a great point - I guess you'd model it on some sort of distribution related to the exponential (beta maybe?)? 

Just now, WesternFringe said:

But again, given that you need a sample size of 18+ (30?), how can you say what the median decreasing and the standard deviation even means, when the n = 14?

yeah it's tough.  Even going on a year interval, DC snowfall has a ton of year-to-year variance given its location.  Another interesting thing to look at would be to see the frequency of 3"+, 6"+ and 12"+ events per year.

23 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Usually studies with n=18 and higher start to become highly generalizable to the general population and those below it do not (thus my issue with looking at decade median data, especially from recent decades). Even looking at decadal data from 1880s only gives us n=14.  That isn’t a generalizable sample size.

At least that is what I was taught at University of Virginia when I was getting my doctorate

eta:  I think looking at the slope of the standard deviation from 1880s might be useful.  Definitely more useful than median decadal data

yep this is what I was always taught - you need a sample size of around 30.  I think it's interesting the median is decreasing but the std deviation is increasing.  That would suggest that while overall snowfall is trending down just a bit, we are dealing with more all or nothing type scenarios (which would make sense if we are dealing with an underlying state of bigger storms but a warming atmosphere (meaning generally less snow here)).

lol

Got down to about 6F here in Tenleytown.  I was in Staunton over Christmas where we were around 0F for Christmas Eve.  Some of my family opted to do a morning run - I decided to wait until it was a bit warmer (like 10F).

Almost below freezing now at that Marion, OH station

2 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

More fun climo stats.  There have been 68 days in DCA's climate record with a 40+ spread between high and low temps.  Most of those are in the distant past.  There have only been 5 cases in the past 40 years:

• 3/23/1994 - 83/39
• 1/19/1996 - 62/20 (the Potomac flood final push)
• 12/22/1998 - 67/24
• 4/8/2000 - 78/38
• 1/13/2018 - 62/21

We might be able to add to this list tomorrow if we can hold the 50s until midnight.

it doesn't seem like that'll be an issue - it's torching rn.  55F at DCA and 53F here up in Tenley.

With this rain, I did just hit 50" of precip on the year.

41F with about 0.55" of rain.  Gross.

1 hour ago, DE2PA said:

Anyway, still cold and raining here 38 miles west of Philadelphia International Airport; which also is not in the city of Philadelphia either… go figure 

well technically a small part of it is in Philadelphia County (coterminous with the city) but it is owned by the City of Philadelphia.  Weird arrangement lol.

34 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

36/27

waiting for my storm

34/27 near DC's highest point.

34/25 in Tenleytown, 36/27 at DCA.

10 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Was thinking this the other day and some Twitter Mets have been posting about it now, but the “relax” period around new years is basically a canonical super El Niño pattern. Pretty odd in the midst of a 3rd year La Niña. As that big AK/NPac trough rotates back west toward the Aleutians and Kamchatka, the PNA and EPO ridge will go back up and we’ll chill back down. Very Nino-like evolution. No pattern has been locking in for very long (clearly…), so I imagine we’ll have opportunities by/after Jan 7-10.

does this suggest the Niña is breaking down?

9 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

While I generally agree with the overall sentiment you are conveying, there is a real chance that DCA may see a record low max on Christmas Eve (current record, 23).  This is a very solid cold air shot one month before our peak climo cold.

yeah the timing is just about perfect for that.

lol the 3:55pm ob was just like - yeah not gonna get this one.

3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

This cold push seems legit.

 

good god this is KDEN

4 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

Isn’t it usually nearly impossible on sunny days around the Beltway anyway? 

only days that end in -y of course.

Just now, psuhoffman said:

It’s been almost every winter lately. I can remember way too many good track but just no cold anywhere storms over the past 6 years. I’m not even sure which he means. Recently there were 2 in January 2020.  3 in January/February 2021. I did good up here BARELY but those should have been snow everywhere given the track and time of year not just at 1000 feet. 

I agree with you wrt the uncertainty given the short timeframe here with respect to inferring causality.  Obviously the climate is warming, but has there been some profound change in that base state since like 2016/2017 or is there some other temporary phenomenon at play.  If this is still happening as we approach the late 2020s (or it's getting worse), then I think we'll have something more concrete to work with.

I know the more urbanized parts of the metro (DC/Arlington/Alexandria) are not representative of most folks here, but the warning signs are there.  I mean it basically doesn't get below 20F without some severe shot of Arctic air (like what is coming this weekend).  Frankly without some reinforcing shot of cold air, it struggles to get into the upper 20s.  For the most part, most of the winter (at least over the past few years), DC stays above freezing, even at night.

I mean this "arctic shot" is likely gonna put DC only in the mid-upper teens.  These cold shots have been moderating, at least for the east coast, quite profoundly over the past few years.

5 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

DCA:

SBY:

 

this is the type of thing I'd expect with a climate going haywire.  Should be an interesting day

In terms of the cold, people are talking up some days with lows in the teens and highs in the 20s?  That used to be routine...

I do get that the worst of the cold will be well to our west (again), but still.

It just seems like it's difficult for the urban areas from NYC southward (maybe even BOS these days) to get that cold absent a real fresh shot of arctic air (that is usually fleeting).   It wasn't exactly balmy today (NYC high of 44, DCA 50), but NYC is around 36 now at 1am, and DCA is at 41.  Here in Tenleytown we've basically been stuck around 38-39 for the past several hours.  Most nights, we stay above freezing.

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

FanDuel odds

GFS -120

GEFS -110

ICON +225

UKMET +240

CMC +440

very nice