pazzo83

1 hour ago, blizzard1024 said:

The AMO has been in the warm phase since the late 1990s so little by little sea ice coverage shrinks. Then this year we had a strong El Nino and hence a low sea ice year. We only have about 40 years worth of reliable sea ice coverage data and the satellite monitoring began during a known cool period in the 20th century when sea ice likely was at a maximum in coverage. So we are seeing the downward trend of a cyclical process.  And the Vize, Russia observation is just weather, not climate. There has been tremendous cold in Asia this fall. The average global temperature from the satellites is around +.4C which is not that big of a deal and we are in a cooling trend as the effects of the strong El Nino fade. There is nothing unusual about our current climate.  CO2 may be leadling to some of the observed warming but climate scientists, in my opinion, underestimate the natural variability of our climate system.   

 

 

We have enough data on sea ice to know that its current status is anomalous - even compared to the prior warm phase AMO period in the mid 20th Century.

Vize Island, Russia still hasn't dropped below 0F.  Avg high right now there is about -4F.

6 hours ago, blizzard1024 said:

Arctic sea ice likely has been low and declining because of the warm phase of the AMO which started in the 1990s and is still peaking. Notice
from the diagram below that the cold phase of the AMO was in the 1970s when satellites began measuring sea ice accurately

Hence waters going into the Arctic Basin from the north Atlantic have been warmer than normal. Thus sea ice is affected and Arctic temperatures are higher, sea ice lower. Once this reverses sea ice will recover in the Arctic Basin and Arctic temperatures will fall off again. This is strong evidence that the sea ice is cyclical and related to the AMO. This years warmth as seen from the reanalysis data and even the more accurate satellite data is related to the very strong El Nino we just had and there is a lag effect. Land temperatures have fallen about 1C since peaking from this El Nino. So its all downhill from here.  Also remember that reanalysis data, especially in the Arctic regions is unreliable, and even the satellite data is not as good for the Arctic because of the skewed angle of the satellite at our high latitudes.   

 

 

 

 

How do these fluctuations explain what is only a recent sharp decrease in sea ice coverage?

Holy sh*t - that end of year max is just not there this year for global sea ice:

Here's a good animation showing those areas of open water expanding...

Even if it's a coincidental confluence of events that's behind this, you'd have to think we are approaching a situation where it starts to "run away" so to speak.  In other words, melting begets melting.

Is it possible that there those record levels in the Antarctic over the past couple years were only in coverage and not necessarily volume (as in, the ice was more widespread but demonstrably thinner)?

1 minute ago, csnavywx said:

Yeah, it's definitely not an error. Something rather odd going on down there this year, including the sudden reappearance of the Weddell Polynya.

Some of what I read suggests some changes in circumpolar winds, but to cause an almost 6SD drop?

23 minutes ago, Mallow said:

 

Wow... that has to be an error, doesn't it? That would be like if NYC's record high and low for a date were 80°F and 40°F respectively, and then they go and record an 18°F.

Not an error.  Something is going on...

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/arctic-antarctic-sea-ice-polar-global-warming-climate-change-india-alaska-a7458881.html

Meanwhile in Antarctica, a big ol' WTF

Sea ice growth in the Arctic slowing again:

51 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said:

 

From monitoring coronal hole data for decades, it is 'not' normal.   The size of these holes.  Even during solar minimums in the past.

"source of data" != your anecdotal monitoring

Look at the buoys at or above 80N - temps are are in the mid-upper 20s F wtf.

http://iabp.apl.washington.edu/maps_daily_table.html

Wait - we lost nearly 100,000 sq km of ice coverage in ONE day?

Also, all those records are within the last decade.  Man, we are f*cked.

21 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Ooof.  Holy shi-t.  

 

 

Does that main max in the late part of the year happen because the Antarctic sea ice is just passed its max plus the Arctic is supposed to be rapidly freezing up?  If so, I'd wager this is a combo of the wholesale lack of sea ice in the Arctic plus a paltry (relative to normal) level in the Antarctic.

For EST:

0hr - 7pm (-1 day)

3hr- 10pm (-1 day)

6hr - 1am

9hr - 4am

12hr - 7am

15hr - 10am

18hr - 1pm

21hr - 4pm

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27hr - 10pm

30hr - 1am (+1 day)

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90hr - 1pm (+3 days)

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96hr - 7pm (+3 days)

You get the idea.

Is there any way, from a now-casting perspective, to see how this path will ultimately play out at this point?  Or will that become more evident tomorrow?

Not really, it's still a really good run for NYC...just not quite as good as 12z but that was kind of an obscene run for them.

Yea I wasn't really prepping for 35" here in midtown.

Umm, pin.

Pin please.

Here's the EST equiv for the UTC times in the models:

0z = 7pm EST (-1 day)

6z = 1am EST

12z = 7am EST

18z = 1pm EST

I guess that's one good thing about working for a British company.