anotherman

Thanks for those thoughts. Really adds a lot to the conversation.

All the fuss is caused by the fact that it won't snow.

In February 2003 I was in Mass. for a long weekend and had to stay over in Leominster and wait for the storm to pass. I’ll never forget coming home to Maryland. It was like a bomb had hit. Lanes on 695 were not plowed. Crazy stuff.

Why would anyone want things to be sugarcoated? Optimism is good but sometimes that can lead to misinformation and false hope. Give me the hard data any day of the week. It's science. There is no optimism or pessimism, only reality.

Man, that is ugly.

Larry Cosgrove weighs in... In what seems like an eternally bearish energy trading environment, a beacon of hope for more widespread wintry conditions... There are two issues to deal with for looking at the possibility of a back-loaded winter developing. One is the recurrent, broad, and strong subtropical jet stream, which continues to carry abundant energy and moisture from the equatorial regions into the western U.S. There is near-complete agreement from the computer schemes that this feature will eject three disturbances into the lower High Plains between now and Feb 5. The first, visible now on this satellite image, seems to be in the weak to moderate category. But the succeeding impulses look to have better dynamics to work with, and may trigger more and varied precipitation in the lower 48 states. Then there is the matter of snow cover. Despite repetitive cases of milder-than-normal readings in North America, the snowpack remains resilient and has actually pressed southward. If the storm sequence mentioned gets stronger, cold air pooling over the snow will be pulled southward. You will note that the CFS and ECMWF weekly outlines turn mild West vs. cold East as we move deeper into February. Yes, those schemes have had their issues so far this season. But there are reasons for a cold finish to winter.

Larry Cosgrove weighs in.... In what seems like an eternally bearish energy trading environment, a beacon of hope for more widespread wintry conditions... There are two issues to deal with for looking at the possibility of a back-loaded winter developing. One is the recurrent, broad, and strong subtropical jet stream, which continues to carry abundant energy and moisture from the equatorial regions into the western U.S. There is near-complete agreement from the computer schemes that this feature will eject three disturbances into the lower High Plains between now and Feb 5. The first, visible now on this satellite image, seems to be in the weak to moderate category. But the succeeding impulses look to have better dynamics to work with, and may trigger more and varied precipitation in the lower 48 states. Then there is the matter of snow cover. Despite repetitive cases of milder-than-normal readings in North America, the snowpack remains resilient and has actually pressed southward. If the storm sequence mentioned gets stronger, cold air pooling over the snow will be pulled southward. You will note that the CFS and ECMWF weekly outlines turn mild West vs. cold East as we move deeper into February. Yes, those schemes have had their issues so far this season. But there are reasons for a cold finish to winter.

A typical March event.....in January.

I’m terrified....

Exactly what I thought yesterday. Sign of the times.....

That reminds me of a March storm with limited available cold air that has to “create its own cold air.” But it’s late January.....[emoji2961]

Ping ping ping

Ping ping ping

I can report that we have a solid car topper up here in York County.

24/7

Thank you for always posting the latest maps. I look forward to it.

They'll probably align with the Germans to form the axis powers of models determined to ruin our winter.

2-4 along the M/D line? Wow.

They suck.

It was during the 2009-10 winter. They just happened to be right more often than not because that winter was just that good. Sort of like JB.

Not worried about dry. Give me a cold pattern and the snow will eventually come....and stay.

We’ve now reached the stage where many are expecting a flip to a wintry pattern. There will be weenie suicides every time a model takes snow away.

In February of ‘94 I was at Penn State Altoona. The entire state of Pennsylvania was under a state of emergency and Penn State closed (that never used to happen). I will never forget I went to get gas and the pumps didn’t work. It was -20.

The mid-Atlantic forum is like being best friends with a bipolar person. Today is the best day ever and tomorrow probably won’t be. [emoji23]