tnweathernut

Looking like kids are likely going to miss quite a bit of school the next two weeks.  

10 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

I wonder if we can finagle a clipper after this thing.

All kidding aside, i think the flow could certainly throw a clipper event this way.  In fact, I'd almost expect it following the event early next week.

At least we know the Euro ensembles would almost have to be better.  lol

Another benefit for modeling, and a reason to start centering around a general solution we can have some confidence in……….is the big wrapped up storm for tomorrow is pretty consistent among modeling now.

If we continue heading this direction…..  This could trend to a two part snow storm for some (maybe widespread). Overrunning followed by the main course.  I won’t be surprised to see an overachiever with the overrunning….  

Long fetch WSW winds will be conducive to overrunning.  Models don’t typically handle it well either.

4 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Charts above are how to get proper snow across the entire Tennessee Valley including southeast Tenn.

Take a break tonight for SEC basketball action. Tennessee leads off early. Georgia and Ole' Miss are both getting points at home. Kansas is on too, along with other Big 12. 

Apparently, you don't want to be a top 5 team playing this week.  1 and 2 fell yesterday.  TN getting whipped at half.    Looks like Kansas is going to have to bring home a win for the top 5 crew.  

Someone needs to start a thread for this system so we can have somewhere to track it or kill it off.......  lol

The NWS offices are talking about it, so makes sense to pull the trigger.

1 minute ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, definitely. It was way under on QPF with this last System throughout the area. 

Only caution would be this isn't a full gulf tap with a strong low.  It's an overrunning look.  I have no clue if it makes a difference how the Euro handles QPF, but it's a different setup for sure

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24 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

This one feels feast or famine. It's either a major event or it's clear skies. 

Our energy is still over 4 days from being onshore and we have another system to deal with this week too. Still just warning shots but a good sign is that we have cross model support. 

I personally don't like the looks of this one especially for ETN. But really for anyone. This is one of those storms that will be a pain in the rear to track. It'll be easier to squash this into the ocean vs amp IMO. I hope I'm wrong  we have lost most support for an amped version with most of 12z a whiff besides EURO. In normal circumstances I would argue that's right where we want it (for middle and west regions). I'm taking the sit back and relax approach. Let's see what we have come Friday when it's only 2 days from being onshore.

I think until we get superstorm number two out of the way, we won't really have a good handle for what is to follow.  I also think the chances for something wintry in the week after superstorm number two is more likely than not.  JMO, will be fascinating to watch it play out.

32 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Interestingly, both the Euro and CMC leave the door wide open for another system to follow 3-4 days later. 

The precip panels on the GEFS have also been showing another system during that time frame......... pretty consistently.

11 minutes ago, CDUB_VOL said:

I have really enjoyed these threads for the last few years. There is not a lot I can add I am just getting started in this hobby.  Carver I have seen you post these ensembles several times could you tell a novice how to read them. Thanks in advance. 

Welcome to the forum!  I'm not Carvers, but I have some time and can answer the question. Hope this helps.

Each model run generates individual ensemble members, each of which represents a slightly different possible future evolution of the weather based on small perturbations introduced into the initial conditions. By running the model at different times and with these perturbations, the GFS ensemble provides a more comprehensive picture of the potential range of future weather scenarios and their associated probabilities.

Here's how it works:

• Base model runs: The GFS model itself is run four times per day, starting at the aforementioned UTC timestamps.
• Ensemble generation: For each base model run, ensemble members are generated by introducing slight variations in the initial conditions, such as temperature, pressure, and wind speed. These variations represent the uncertainties inherent in the initial data and atmospheric processes.
• Forecast calculations: Each ensemble member then evolves independently through the model, simulating the atmosphere's future state under slightly different conditions. This creates a range of possible weather forecasts for each forecast lead time.

Therefore, when you access GFS ensemble forecasts, they represent the combined information from multiple model runs and multiple ensemble members, providing a more nuanced picture of the potential future weather than any single forecast could offer.

It's important to remember that even with the ensemble approach, weather forecasts are inherently uncertain, and the range of possibilities represented by the ensemble can increase as the forecast lead time gets longer. Nevertheless, GFS ensembles are a valuable tool for meteorologists and the public alike to understand the potential range of future weather events and make informed decisions.

10 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Great discussion guy's ! I'm down with RSV now so, not participating much but, am checking in ever so often. Fun times upcoming ! 

Feel better soon.  We are going to need everyone at 100% rowing in the right direction to bring a snow system home...........  lol  Hope it passes quickly!

5 minutes ago, Nash_LSU said:

That was my thinking, too. Like, it's alright for us on weather message board to throw stuff out, but a news station in a large market is a different story. We get off on this kind of stuff, but we also know it may go poof tomorrow.

That said, we're getting snow next week, dangit

Well the second thought I had was which one of us on the forum works for channel 4??  lol

5 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

That is quite possibly the boldest, and probably dumbest thing a major news station could put out for something a week away..............  IMO.  lol

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

That is crazy, man!   

The insurance guy over here can't catch a break.  Several hail storms the past 3 years, last years Christmas pipe buster.   Now we get damaging winds across the area tomorrow, likely another round late week, followed by another pipe buster next week.  I really need a break.  

And people wonder why their home and auto insurances are going up at the rate of double digits increases each year.

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I grew up a Boston Red Sox fan and a TN fan(mid-late 1970s)......getting hosed is just part of life's right of passage for me.  That is probably why I like the weather, it is just some kind of sick hobby that reminds me of my sports hobby.  I also like to fish.  Maybe I just like randomly being disappointed on a regular basis.   

Try being a Minnesota Vikings fan.......  lol

1 minute ago, PowellVolz said:

I’m afraid that after tomorrow’s system completely clears the country, there could be a big swing for the Tuesday event for a day or so. We just need for whatever happens, happens after the front goes through. What the Euro showed earlier would break our spirits.


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It's no wonder we have so few statewide events.  Here in the Tri-Cities, I can get to Canada quicker than I can Memphis.  Just so hard to align a storm west to east over that type of distance.  Someone usually gets hosed. 

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Good comparison.  The good thing(or bad thing) is that likely will change at this range.

Feedback over the Southwest in the operational and more blocking on the ensemble (slight orange above MI)????  The feedback in the operational pops the SER?   The SER maybe(?) shouldn't be there w/ that NAO configuration?  The ensemble is much colder and has a deeper air mass(cold).

Biggest things I noticed were:

1.  The OP has the ridge off the west coast tipping to the northeast.  This invites the northern stream to roll downhill further southwest, interacting with the southern branch feature and pumping the heights in the east just enough to screw up something possibly great. 

2. The ensemble is smoothed (I get that), but if it has any energy in the southern branch it is suppressed.  Since the ridge off the west coast doesn't tip northeast, the cold shot progresses to the SE.

Just looking at the operational 18z vs the ensemble at 500 at hour 180 (truncation).  See if you can spot the differences.

3 minutes ago, Silas Lang said:

Runs not over, but it looks like the Euro is caving towards the GFS as well. Good trends overall today if you want snow. 

Euro will cut.  Northern and southern stream started interacting with each other way out west….   Maybe it’s a step in the right direction, time will tell.  There are differences even at hour 120 evident, so will likely work out the correct (west vs east) sooner than later.

I mean, I think we would all be willing to be patient if this type of event unfolded.  I knew it was going to be a banger run when I was following 500 and saw this map......   

Looks like a phaser or phaser potential............  Nice to see it as a possibility, even if still in the land of make believe.

Major winter storm incoming on HH GFS.  Under day 10.  This is progress.  lol

96 was the last time i remember snow on snow and significant snow on the ground for 2 straight weeks, with snow mounds all over the parking lots around the city.  If I remember correct, we got it going by having a heavy rain change to heavy snow.  I remember everyone in college talking about how the weather guys missed another one when the heavy rain was falling..  lol