tnweathernut

Out to 48, it's TRYING to be better at 500.  Energy trying to sharpen a bit in north Texas and western Oklahoma

Out to 30, the energy coming at us is much stronger on the GFS in Idaho vs. the Euro.  Yes, Idaho.  This is the piece of energy that is set to make it to northeast TN in 42 hours.  This thing is SCOOTING!  I will say the energy is a tad more prominent than on the 0z Euro.  Still doesn't look anything like the American modeling suite.

12z Euro has initialized.  We won't have to wait long to see if it's moved in a positive direction.  lol

Not sure who is feeling froggy, but we likely need to jump on a last minute thread dedicated to Sunday.  Even if it ends up a miss................  the signal is there and growing stronger.

I’d say this is a pretty good signal for a storm. GEFS precip panels for hour 66 and 72 at 12z. I’d expect the Euro to move toward this. Forecasts likely be changing later today.







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15 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Be nice if the King Euro jumped on board

Without a doubt!  How has everyone down your way recovered since the tornadoes?  It seems like eons ago, yet it was only back in March of last year... :-(

4 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Well I had planned on washing my vehicles in 55 and sunny this weekend lol

If the para is even half right, there will be PLENTY of car washing coming up the next 2-3 weeks.

21 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Both versions of the GFS are like that now. I suspect they are just flat wrong but maybe the 12z guidance will further illuminate things. 

Definitely not saying this is a battle the v16 will ultimately win.  Euro’s resolution is still king.  Id probably put the v16’s chance of scoring the victory around 10-15%.  Or just above ........

”so you’re telling me there’s a chance” from Dumb and Dumber.

The 6z GFSv16 is still insistent on showing a snowstorm for the Tennessee Valley on Super Bowl Sunday. Battles between the Euro and GFS at day 3 almost always go to the Euro, but I did note the GFSv16 was scoring better at 500 than the Euro. Because of this, I don’t think we can simply dismiss it.

Pretty fascinating short range battle here. I just hope the GFSv16 isn’t bringing a knife to a gunfight.



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the 12z GFSv16 finally updated.  It has a light to moderate snow on Super Bowl Sunday across much of the state.

2 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

Once and for all, it's tough being a snow weenie in the upper south

There's no doubt about that.  lol  Always good to see new newer members posting on these boards.

I will say this about it being tough..................... if we saw snow every day I don't think we'd appreciate it near as much when it happened.  I absolutely love snow, but have family from Minnesota/Wisconsin.  I remember several times in my youth, spending a couple of weeks there at a time in the winter (around Christmas).  After being elated the first week or so of having snow, fatigue started setting in wanting to see the grass again.  I think it was then I figured out the chase and realizing a snow storm as it was happening was the most special part.  Snow just laying on the ground (to me) got old pretty quick.  lol

I know you guys are likely tired of chasing the LR, but the 2+ day overruning event toward day 9 would be worth the wait for the deep south into the Carolinas

16 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Does this effect other mods?


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I'm not sure which models use that data.  Wish I had a better understanding.

Just a heads up.  Most now know the GFSv16 hasn't updated since 6z yesterday. Looks like they don't yet know when this will resolve.

(02 Feb 2021) GFSv16 and HRW FV3 data have been unavailable since 12z due to NCEP data flow problems. We are not aware of an ETA from NCEP.

27 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Wow. I guess up My area up rock creek in Erwin really really loves this NNW flow.

 

adding another inch currently

My office may be closer to 4” than 3”.  Instead of 2-3 for Erwin it’s likely closer to 3-4”.  Like there, it’s still snowing here also.

1 inch across north Johnson City. Around 2” in parts of south Johnson City and between 3-4” in Unicoi. Also Erwin (city) has between 2 and 3”. Still snowing this AM (9:30) across parts of Washington and Unicoi County.


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38 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Not surprised the Euro lost. Seems to happen a lot around 5 days out.

Euro ensembles still on board, showing the pattern can produce.  This isn't a situation where the OP shows 20" and the ensembles are showing NADA.   I'm still in, until i'm out.  lol

3 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Imagine the damming showing up. It’s over frozen land. You’d push the damming to Birmingham. 

Just checking on you, BullCityWx.......................  making sure you haven't passed out over that way.

IMO, pattern recognition says snow on snow might be a possibility somewhere in the southeast.

Just now, McMinnWx said:

There's no way that 12Z Euro verifies...right?

Not likely, but the first system is within the realm of being believable and is supported by the GEFS.  Also, pattern recognition says something similar (snow on snow) is possible.  LOTS of time to strike out, hit a homerun, or anything in between.

3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

That’s a lot of energy


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Also, number 2 is about to head into southern California.  

Looks great at 500, the trough going negative over the southern apps with plenty of cold pouring in!

7 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

So the temps being shown on forecast are conservative.  It also shows it’s a quick shot of really cold air then right back up to 50 and cold rains. Lol.  Gotta love it!  

Follow the ensembles right now, not so much the OP runs.  I can tell you, in general.........  the 12z GEFS looks like a thing of beauty when looking for cold shots and a flow conducive for precip opportunity.  Just have to time one up.  We may get multiple chances.

6 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

seems like it. Models only had 1-2inches for most of this area before 7pm. bulk comes with the better rates tonight

How do you do at 1950?  Most upslope events get really good around 2500........... so just curious.  My office in on N Main Avenue, so we don't get in on the elevated fun too often.

Just now, fountainguy97 said:

looks like another batch of moisture building in. 

I think this afternoon it was supposed to fill in and find better snows in northeast TN.  Still probably have to get to tonight and hope we keep enough moisture around.  I think we will around Erwin to south JC (north and west of that it will be a toss up hoping for renegade snow showers breaking containment).  I am guessing roads will be a mess tomorrow morning for anyone with a hint of upslope to their area.

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

If the EPO ever cranks and Alaska's cold is dislodged.....

Low tonight in Fairbanks is -40F with wind chill advisories of -60F.

You know this about me, but the insurance guy in me doesn't want any part of frigid temps.  People's pipes all over the region will be popping off.