Hillbilly

Severe works for me, I would much rather hear the thunder rolling versus transformers blowing...

It looks like the webmaster at the NWS has some updates to make after yesterday and today!!! TRI-CITIES TN DAILY NORMALS AND RECORDS FEBRUARY MAX MIN AVG HDD CDD PCPN REC HIGH REC LOW REC PCPN 1 48 27 37 28 0 0.13 70 1988 4 1980 1.56 1985 2 48 27 37 28 0 0.13 71 1989 0 1971 1.22 1974 3 48 27 38 27 0 0.13 74 1989 -4 1965 1.28 2022 4 48 27 38 27 0 0.13 71 2025 -9 1996 1.76 1943 5 49 27 38 27 0 0.13 71 2008 -15 1996 1.43 2020 6 49 28 38 27 0 0.13 73 2025 0 1996 2.60 2020 7 49 28 38 27 0 0.13 76 2019 0 1978 0.97 2018 8 49 28 38 26 0 0.13 73 2025 6 1984 0.62 2017 9 49 28 39 26 0 0.13 72 2023 1 1995 2.48 1994 10 50 28 39 26 0 0.14 73 1939 1 1979 1.66 1946 11 50 28 39 26 0 0.13 76 1965 4 1955 1.42 2018 12 50 29 39 26 0 0.14 74 2017 -1 1981 1.58 2023 13 50 29 40 25 0 0.13 72 1961 -2 1955 1.62 1991 14 51 29 40 25 0 0.14 75 1950 3 1971 1.09 1946 15 51 29 40 25 0 0.14 76 1954 1 1960 1.26 1964 16 51 29 40 25 0 0.14 72 2023 3 1958 1.44 1990 17 51 30 40 24 0 0.15 72 2022 -3 1958 1.75 1944 18 52 30 41 24 0 0.14 70 1948 -5 1958 1.31 1991 19 52 30 41 24 0 0.15 78 1939 -5 1958 0.95 1999 20 52 30 41 24 0 0.14 79 2018 -13 2015 1.06 1967 21 53 31 42 24 0 0.14 82 2018 7 1958 0.96 1993 22 53 31 42 23 0 0.14 80 2018 3 1963 1.85 2003 23 53 31 42 23 0 0.14 80 2018 6 1978 1.83 2019 24 53 31 42 23 0 0.13 77 2017 4 1967 1.53 2022 25 54 31 42 22 0 0.14 74 2000 -1 1967 1.78 1961 26 54 32 43 22 0 0.14 80 1977 4 1967 1.14 1958 27 54 32 43 22 0 0.13 74 1996 2 1963 1.02 1987 28 55 32 43 22 0 0.14 76 2021 12 1947 1.68 2011 29 55 32 43 22 0 0.14 74 1976 13 1964 0.63 1952 MO 50.9 29.2 40 699 0 3.81 82 2018 -15 1996 2.60 2020

Since schools were not cancelled today that is probably all for the best. What time is the snow supposed to start?

It looks like it has gotten more intense this run; if that image verifies, lord have mercy...

Is this a squall line that is for real? A dumb question but could someone be under an ice storm warning and then a few hours later under a severe storm warning?>?>

Hopefully the trend continues until it is an all rain event and turns into the biggest model bust in history.

When the rain falls on the pavement, even if the air temperature rises above freezing, those paved surfaces don't heat up at the rate the air does. It will be a f'n mess, that model hasn't factored any of that into its assessment.

Maybe it's just me, but it is hard for me to believe the temp goes from 17 degrees at 12z to 40 degrees at 18z on the 24th in upper ETN. I'm not putting money on the rain melting the ice away...

This disclaimer almost feels like an understatement >>> * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This is a complicated forecast and details regarding the location of heaviest snowfall and freezing rain totals remain uncertain. Significant changes could occur in the coming days so please continue to monitor future forecasts.

Our friends in Morristown are always the last to jump on board and usually rightfully so >>>

So, just to confirm the trending model consensus; the last two runs of the European and other models are telling me that confidence is growing that there is nothing to be concerned about because any frozen precipitation that falls will get melted away quickly on Sunday?

To put this into perspective, the ECMWF trend north the last four runs.

Anyone drinking this sh**? It felt more appropriate to drop this here...

Someone with far more insight than me can weigh in, but conceptually, if it stays weak the cold gets pushed east, if something stronger develops, the system continues shifting farther west.

One thing missing from the MRX discussion—and a pet peeve of mine—is the lack of consideration for when the forecast is wrong. What if sun angles have less impact than expected? Roads could become covered and dangerous quickly and school systems often treat forecasts as certain for making decisions, when in reality, there should be more risk aversion for public safety. Warnings and advisories aren’t just about forecast accuracy—they’re about giving the public the right information to prepare and too many people don't take it seriously unless they are under an advisory or warning.