DocATL

The run to run consistency on how bad this month looks for Chicago snow prospects is astounding.

I don't feel we are chasing anything wrt a pattern change as we end Dec and start Jan. A mild Dec was well forecast and is a given in a strong Nino. Seems like everything remains on track for a flushing of the pattern (which usually causes a lag in sensible weather/cold). Next week looks cooler and Christmas week milder than they did, say, a week ago...but everything seems on track for a notable change for the eastern half of the country as we start January.
 
Now what that means for us....stay tuned. As we head deeper into winter, a map full of blue temps is far less important than systems and storm tracks themselves. 

Isn't that par for the course for your neck of the woods in a normal winter though? 

GFS keeps us comfortably AN but thankfully gives us a nice dry stretch for Chicago.


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18z GFS was a little bit of everything bad if you want snow. Some timely suppression sandwiched by rain events. Yuck.


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18z GFS walls off Chicago from anything wintery. A very April December.


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A boring stretch for Chicagoland per the GFS


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Gonna be a close call for W/SW Chicago suburbs. Maybe we hit 2 inches. A trace event and 3 inches at either end of the spectrum.


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FFC planning to upgrade to warning/advisory


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