DocATL

The way the MJO is looking I’d be weary about anything wintery in late Feb.


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It’s definitely one of those what a time to be alive kind of mornings. Upper 40s in the Chicago suburbs for overnight lows in early February. I moved here from Atlanta and I guess I brought the climate with me aside from those 10 days in January. This has been an easy transition.


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Going to need cross polar flow to get any real cold air here. Without that, there is no cold air source. Maybe that’s what the GFS is struggling with.


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op GFS is a nightmare 
 

The GFS operational model is so miserable bad compared to the ensemble. Run after run it’s lost.


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If the suns out I couldn’t care less if it’s a blowtorch inferno.


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Unless you enjoy frustrating yourself, just stick with ensemble models right now.


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Not anymore lol

Definite zzzs to start the month. Snow has melted but the ground undoubtedly use some drying out. Pattern change towards Valentines, 2nd half of the month gonna be rockin'

Most of the long range gurus, including our own [mention=525]OHweather[/mention], think that the 2nd half of February will turn colder in the eastern US and I haven't seen any suggestions of that not playing out. The end of the most recent EPS and GEFS show the progression to west coast ridging and eastern troughing with a -NAO returning.

Prior to that, it absolutely will be torchy as the western US gets hammered and the calls that winter is over will continue. The positive departures will be large prior to the likely colder pattern, so the odds certainly favor AN mean temps for the month.

Assuming things go to plan, the position of the expected western ridging will help determine how active or not the pattern will be, particularly with western extent where an east based +PNA is generally a drier look.

An annoyingly chilly spring awaits.

I’ve got to say that for all the talk of winters here, my move from the southeast has been pretty smooth. Aside for about 10 days in the deep freezer it’s been pretty tolerable in the Midwest.


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https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1752060570583322704?s=46&t=vaNz3X96rQKSXMNwtdXFsA


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Warmest winter on record is gonna be locked up by mid month for mby. Might as well make it the least snowy as well and hit the futility daily double. 

Aside from a 10 day period of BN temps these firmly AN stretches just dominate. Not sure where things go after mid February but until then things are uneventful and mild.


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If only it would stall like this in the cold phases instead of warm. <_>

Yes it is, and we want to talk weather without an interrupting jerk who doesn't give a shit about anything other than interrupting this place. He has made 11 accounts already since being banned, he is the problem not those of us wanting him gone.

Looks like we will be smoked out like Cheech and Chong in a few months again. 

This guy's like a whack-a-mole..

Maybe I should have re-phrased the issue.  If the lake temps were 2-4 degrees cooler like they should be this time of year, we could have gotten away with the imperfect tracks of both systems.  Once the winds turned east, areas near the lake were toast in both cases. It was even bad further inland. Last night, temps in SW Lake County IL were in the low 20s around 8PM, then shot up 8-12 degrees very quickly once the winds turned east.  There was no margin for error.  If this were November, you expect these issues...but not in January.
Chicago and RC's points about the poor antecedent airmass were also true - can't argue with that - and I I tip my hat.
Not trying to argue with anyone on this - but simply acknowledging and relating to the pain of snow lovers in the city who have a legitimate right to be furious and sad right now. Oh well, first-world problems...but it's a weather board after all, and the past two winters have been bad enough in our area. 
Edit: Just saw mimillman mention that Wicker Park has no more snow cover right now...that's ridiculous. Warm lake temps are definitely a factor...how could they not be? Not saying it's the only factor. Hopefully you guys can get some of the wraparound snow overnight. 

Shit, I would be giddy with a wind-whipled inch, let alone two, to freshen things up again real quick before the hard freeze. I'd take that and runnn

One big difference in the evolution of this storm system that we are seeing is how the double-barrel SLP/inverted trough feature has played out.
Most guidance, as recently as the 0z runs last evening, had the southern SLP becoming dominated as things transitioned across Illinois and Indiana. Instead, we have seen the northern SLP be the dominant one, thus leading to everything having been shifted a bit north so far out this way.
As we continue on, it does look like the transition to a most eastern dominant SLP will occur as things continue up into Michigan.

Unless I'm missing something, precip looks to end mostly around here within the next two hours. Maybe some backside snow overnight, and it's a wrap. It's nice that the morning thump actually delivered; it's the only thing keeping this storm from being an L instead of just an L. 

Up to 37° with rain picking up in Naperville. We are going to burn through this QPF. Never underestimate the power of advection.


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