DocATL

ive noticed this over the years too...people think that other areas have consistent modeling. They dont. They have had countless fantasy storms in the northeast. The upcoming pattern is very active on the ensembles for the northeast although our sub (especially eastern sub) should get some fun too.

March will be magnificent for northern Illinois and Iowa 🫠


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I know some of us hate it when we post OP runs but the 12z Euro is too good not to post.

Trying to understand why mid range modeling is so all over the place for us from run to run while the mid Atlantic and northeast have a consistent signal for snow. Is it phasing or trough position?


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Slick out here in Naperville. Caught a few patches of ice on “treated surfaces” driving my son home from basketball practice.

Apparently some bad wrecks to our west.

2/7-2/8 is looking like a good hit for MSP. GFS and Euro both in agreement with 0.50”+ of precipitation and SLRs of 15:1-20:1. I’d start a thread but it would be an echo chamber of me. Time to get the powder skis waxed. 

Wrong forum.

Corrected your statement.

Nope.

OP GFS wildin’

I work right by a window looking out into my backyard. The yard is now frozen brown/yellow/pale green grass with a few snow piles and I am always reminded how much I HATE looking at bare ground after a prolonged period of snowcover, even not deep. I mean, it sucks anytime, but its less of an "ugh" factor when you have only had snowcover for a few days.

Mid 30’s all day in Chicago burbs. Kinda just raw and uncomfortable.


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Really looks so far like most of the snow is confined to the far north or to the south of us on these more recent op runs. Most of the QPF goes south. Who knows how this shakes out. Definitely an active period however.

That last part of this is important.

The battle appears to be indeed coming. The look has transitioned from long range to the mid range, and soon to be short range.

Nah

Checkout the Iowa ,ILL, Indiana snowhole, at lease southern Missouri, southern IL and Southern Indiana get more
 

Prepare for a blizzard Feb 16-19. I am going to Tampa for work that week.

that’s far from the case.

originally, it looked like we may transition into a more favorable pattern in mid-january. that didn’t happen, and the can has gotten kicked down the road…and that continues to be the case.

the performance of longer range guidance has been not been the best this winter.

Now models are punting the chance of any real snow until mid February.  A few more punts are we'll be moving on to spring.

Nice runs popping occasionally now

Don’t see how

GFS really overdoing the ridging IMO


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Looking more and more like a repeat of late Dec. We finally lost the cold NW flow and promptly got ice and rainers, then right back to cold NW flow.

Ensembles have a fairly active look to start Feb. Last week of Jan looks to continue pretty quiet.

nothing exciting imminent but the more seasonal temps, slightly longer days and at least chances for precip will be nice
hopefully we can pop a major somewhere in the region before climo runs out, which is about 3-4 weeks for most of us before big dog chances fall off, fingers crossed