DocATL
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Posts posted by DocATL
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The Euro not very enthusiastic about snow.
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This ULL next week looks interesting. Maybe some reverse lake effect for Chicago.
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It would be funny if it verified, but is the CMC trying to resolve a Mesolow over Lake Michigan due to the ULL next Friday? Would be a funny way to transition from near 60F Christmas to 6"+ snow cover on NYE.
The CMC has been honking the horn. The GFS as usual is struggling with mesoscale events. I’m keenly awaiting the mesoscale models. Someone is gonna get NAM’d. -
My only worry is the MJO wave is so low amplitude that it may not flush the pattern enough. I'd love to see the wave propagate at a higher amplitude, but I will take what we can get here.
I would think it is OK if we do not totally flush the pattern. It may become about timing the cold intrusions with a moist Pacific flow.
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Canadian threw us a bone. I’ll take the fantasy snow for next week.
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Oh, he definitely gon' learn, lol...
I remember the other guy from the Atlanta area a few years ago who about lost his mind when he realized how cloudy it is up there.
No question I have seasonal affective disorder from the cloudy days and early nights. Luckily the craft beer is better up here!-
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about as bad as it gets
february will be rocking
I think late January into February will be colder but probably not snowier. In a nino year, this is prime time for southern sliders. I would think March would be our opportunity to get a substantial snow. -
Back to the weather...all ensembles in agreement that the warmth starts to scour out bigtime after Christmas, so while Im never ready to rush Christmas, it will certainly be nice to turn the page to January weather-wise. This December will go down with 1877, 1881, 1889, & 2015 in the shit category.
Makes sense…we can’t even get a fantasy threat on the models right now.
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Chicago averages around 20F colder in winter than Atlanta, so thats one thing to keep in mind. And averages are just that, averages. If youre new to this region genuinely trying to understand how the weather in Chicago works, the LAST person you need to listen to is a troll. Strong El Nino Decembers are about the worst winter weather (for cold/snow lovers) we see in this region. A more favorable MJO may have given you a few more thread the needle slushes and a few more murky gray days with no diurnal temp swing, but it would still suck. Bottom line...once the new year sets in, changes are afoot. To what extent remains to be seen, but this garbage pattern is flushing away. Februarys have often been the harshest month of winter the past few decades, and that may happen again this year. Once we get into mid-winter, in most patterns you worry about storm tracks more than blues and reds on a temp map this far north, unless its an all out torch (like now), which no one is showing for Jan/Feb. Obviously in the south where you are from, seeing blues on a temp map in mid winter is eye candy, but this far north, it can sometimes mean suppression.
Helpful post and certainly picking up on the suppression piece.
Thanks!
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Coping is a hard drug to get off, eh?
So is trolling.-
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Yep this is a full blown torch that no one saw coming to this extend. Remember Brian said it would be cold later this month. Only the beginning would be mild.
Ehh…El Nino Decembers are notoriously torchy. Also, historically, going back to the 1940’s December temperature departures are considerably above normal. December is the new November. Winter is January through March. This year we may have to wait till February.
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Not sure how long you've lived in Chicago, however, you don't need unseasonable cold in midwinter to get snow. Threading the needle is more for atrocious pattern's like the one we are in now.
Haven’t been here too long. Certainly seems like pattern persistence is the name of the game thus far.
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Given the location of the SW, the main/core of the cold will be on the other side of the NH.
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That was always the fear. Going to be threading the needle.
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SW is most definitely going to occur, and the MJO is most definitely going to exit the COD somewhere into the 8-2 phase range (But yes, at low amplitude).
Yeah SSWE is predicted but where does the cold go? Thats the question.
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Areas closer to the lakeshore here are supposed to get 2-4”. Not enough westerly component to bring it my way.
Well I guess we know it can snow somewhere in the Midwest in December albeit in lake effect areas. -
Around the first of the year will at least be a stormier pattern if current model trends hold
At the very least we’re going to see a parade of cold rain events. Kind of the recipe for an overnight slushy event.
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Looks about right to me. The stars may align late January but it’s a gamble.
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I know Ricky briefly touched on part of it...But why has it been so consistently mild/warm, and why will it generally continue into late month?
The combination of a bigly/massive Pac jet, the MJO progressing through warmer phases, and the lack of consistent blocking of some sorts.
Changes are in the future, though, including some significant stratospheric warming on deck. Will touch on that early next week...
No guarantees that a SSWE will occur and furthermore lead to wide spread cold in NA. The MJO isn’t great early January and with our luck could be low amplitude.
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I'm not gonna hold my breath on that one.
Yes we’d be lucky to see 72 straight hours below 32°
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Accuweather has Chicagoland below freezing for the entire month of January. Whole month.
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your first mistake was subscribing to his blog.
Lol I definitely do not subscribe to it. -
Judah firing warning shots in his latest blog. Winter cancel perhaps?
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The MJO forecast is abysmal for winter weather.
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Let this sink in…on December 23rd the GFS has high temps in the mid 60’s in South Dakota. Mid 60’s!!
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December 2023 General Discussion
in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Posted
Feels like Easter Sunday.
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