DocATL

things will start budding here soon, excited

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Energy sector guy?

Powerball is correct. Many cities in this sub had a record stretch of snow from about 2008-2015, and also a few great winters pre-2008 as well. As someone who is a local climate "expert" you always get somewhat of a balancing out, even if not fully. Averages do sway up and down over time, but we were far above our climo from the mid-00s to mid-10s.
 
All that said, what I CAN tell you regarding ENSO is that most of the enso states (3 strengths of nino, neutral, 3 strengths of nina) have a higher probability of a certain type of winter, but usually with a few exceptions. The ONLY state that is a pretty much guarantee is what we had this year, a strong Nino. Some are better than others, but NOT ONCE have we had a good winter in a strong Nino, and this dates back to the 1870s. You can bank on a warm winter overall, and just hope that you get a few periods of fun. Meanwhile, a weak El Nino is often a cold and snowy winter here. 
 
A switch from El Nino to La Nina is often welcome news for our region. La Ninas often, though not always, are snowy, stormy winters. They also have a tendancy to be more front-loaded, though again, this is not always the case.

Is there any hope for us here in the midwest or more of the same to be expected?     This is from the snowmonger Joe Bastardi!!!!   Monster stratwarm going on right now Lets see what that means for March 10-April 10 ( target response period)  

Some intense warmth coming for Illinois next week! Mid 70’s in February per the GFS and pushing 80 per CMC. Thats quite a signal. What a time to be alive. You can thank me for bringing that Georgia warmth


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This winter sucks. 
2019-20 we had a neutral and it was also warm. 

So last winter was a Nina and Chicago hardly had any snow. This year in a Nino we get two weeks of winter. Not sure what’s normal at this point.


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Dud model run after dud model run for northern Illinois.

Well, you've had your easing in, next winter, you can leave that crap down south:lol:

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/yVWKoWgvVpYCWcf1/?mibextid=WC7FNe

I brought the Georgia warmth with me to Chicago to ease me in to the winters here!


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https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1757415044361380080?s=46&t=vaNz3X96rQKSXMNwtdXFsA


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AI is programmed by man and controlled by man.

And south it goes. Well it was fun while it lasted.


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Anybody take a look at the 6z GFS?

What is going on with the models? First this botched pattern change and now this wildly changing Nor’easter forecast. How are we this bad at forecasting even with AI at our disposal and voluminous analog data?


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Thursday thru Saturday us a period to watch for some possible snow, but the finer details and continuity on the models is just terrible at this lead, so not worth going in depth on anything at this time.

Do we want to play Clipper Roulette in Chicagoland? So far only the GFS but I’m tempted.


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Id look for some input from [mention=525]OHweather[/mention] [mention=147]Chicago Storm[/mention] or [mention=3997]RCNYILWX[/mention], but from what Im gathering about the pattern later next week and beyond is that it would appear to have good clipper potential. Hopefully that can bring back the snow!

No worries. We'll offset this in April and May. You'll learn.

Love how the big pattern change takes us from way above normal to above normal.


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can definitely tell you’re new here.

Tornadoes in Wisconsin. Can’t make this stuff up.


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Might as well go straight to April 1st pls 

Unless trolling.  It's going to be in phase 8 albeit low low p8