DocATL

Models just all over the place for Northern Illinois for snow chances the next two weeks. While a late season snow would be nice it doesn’t seem in the cards for this year. The transition to Nina will be interesting. Next year most assuredly will be different.


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Next time use the ensemble mean, it actually has some value over the op GFS which has none.

My point still matters, we don't need op model 348hr images posted ever.

The purpose of me posting a picture of an operational GFS run at hour 300+ wasn’t to troll. I fully understand it is completely unreliable. I meant to post it here concerning the extreme rarity with which we have seen west coast ridging and a southeast trough this winter.

Truth is we’ve seen a western trough dominating several winters despite the ENSO state. Some have theorized this relates to the PDO. Thats all I was trying to say.


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Also possible

Wrong thread, guys.

you can continue to shoot yourself in the foot. fine by me.

yeah, [mention=147]Chicago Storm[/mention] was right in saying that you should read more and post less.

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Amazing to see my shrubs beginning to leaf at the same time they would where I lived in the mid south.


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18z hinting at some of these symptoms slowing down over the Midwest. At least some chances at wet weather and maybe some marginal wintry muck.


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Tornado sirens in Naperville (east) in February. This is wild!

Will be interesting to see if Chicago beats the record high today followed by a 50° tumble. Curious what’s the biggest temperature change in a 24 hour period? I assume that record is safe.


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https://x.com/wxpatel/status/1762171470476714453?s=46&t=vaNz3X96rQKSXMNwtdXFsA


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12z mesoscale models a mixed bag for Chicago area on Wednesday. Any thoughts? I guess it depends on how much moisture to work with once we get cold enough.


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I'm sure they can handle one coldish day before the next torch comes in shortly afterwards.

Kind of nice to have a little over an inch on grass and homes and nothing on roads, driveways, and sidewalks.Ideal in some ways


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wrong thread, guy.

Nice little over-performer out here in Naperville. Will make for a beautiful morning tomorrow!


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NAM looked a bit juiced up for Northern Illinois. Temps are crashing nicely. Would love a surprise 2 inches.


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DT from WeatherRisk is not bullish on a mid March pattern change with the MJO going into the neutral circle during colder phases. Putrid patterns persist.


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Models are showing a 50 degree drop in high temps over much of Iowa between Tue-Wed next week.  Around Des Moines they go from a high in mid 70s Tue, to a high in the mid 20s on Wed, with teens still holding on at midday.  That would/will be a brutal slap in the face. 

The string for Cleveland, Erie and Syracuse is unlike anything since recording history began.
Syracuse averages 127.8" of snow per year. Here are the snow totals the last 5 yrs.
2019-2020: 87.6"
2020-2021: 73.3"
2021-2022: 76"
2022-2023: 65.6"
2023-2024: 34.5" (so far)
Syracuse has never gone more than 3 yrs without getting to 100" of snowfall, this year will be their 5th consecutive year.

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For what its worth, out in the far west suburbs of Chicago Im seeing some buds pushing and saw daffodils starting to emerge two days ago.  Very strange.