Rvarookie

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

On the gerunds...I can understand thar (I do talk like that in real life sometimes--depending on where I am or what I'm talkin' about. I can turn it on and off, lol)

Now...even today...too many posts?

Just posts here in banter or less in LR. It’s not that you really annoy me, but I do think your excessive shit post dilute or distract from the others I would prefer to hear more from. It’s not the maestro forum so just sit back sometimes

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That's you being kind? Every time you hurl an insult (i.e. "dumb ***"). And then...you repeat it, calling me a turd in the punch bowl and all that crap. Now today for example, I have no idea what I did in the LR thread to warrant this.

I thought turd in punch bowl was a fair assessment that even you would agree with it. If you need compliment to help you feel better about yourself, then I do think you have picked up quite a bit of knowledge even if took 500000 questions a day to get there. 

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Here you go startin' stuff. I don't know whether you're just a jerk in general or don't know how to be kind. This post right here isn't piling on? My goodness man you already did that 4 days ago. Put me on ignore or whatever if it bothers ya. Yeah I'm tryin' to change, but this ain't helpin' AT ALL. Yeah I still wanna talk weather I can't help that. I'm gonna modify where I put certain things. I still look at ops and ens and weigh in to see if I'm lookin' at things right.

You made your point now leave me the heck alone if you ain't got nothin' positive to say.

Sorry I thought my post was pretty kind man. Please know I’m really rooting for you to stop posting dumb shit in the LR thread. Good luck buddy 

50 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Or you might say is a knee is career threatening, sprained ankles are not.

True. Not trying to turn out like rg3

1 hour ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

Paging Lamar Jackson.. Paging Lamar Jackson.. if you want to see how hall of fame leaders play through injury and lead their team to a championship.. I suggest you tune in to KC/ Jacksonville.

I don’t know about that take man...One could also say if Lamar had the same financial stability as Mahomes he probably be little more wreckless and push through it

Least they give us snow during playoff game. Can’t imagine the shape i would be in tailgating at a playoff game with snow coming down 

I think the San Fran / Dallas game may be intense. But yeh imagine the eagles / giants may be pretty hard hitting 

Which game will be most entertaining this weekend?

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Trolling isn't something I do. It really is exactly how I actually feel...I'm gonna be better eventually. Just ain't there yet.

I feel bad for getting on you man. Sorry this stuff messes with you so much but glad to hear you least have the self awareness. I’m sure you are a good dude, but it sure sucks to see your name on every page/everyday with same dumb shit and then take it out on psu when he posts some quality stuff.

Anyways sorry for kicking you in the nuts while you were already down, just hope you can find some peace and not take that shit out on others or be top 4 poster in the LR thread. 

1 minute ago, mappy said:

my mom goes on repositioning cruises. so where they need to move a boat from one port to another for starting a cruise line trip etc.

She did HI to Australia over a course of a month, hit up all the places down there; New Zealand, Fiji, etc. Her flight home from Australia cost more than the entire boat trip, all things included.

She has another one planned later this year; leaves out of New Jersey, will end up in Spain, Portugal, France and end up in Italy before making the flight home. The boat, room, all things paid for on the boat = $1300 per person. 

wow that is such a great deal! 

Just now, wxtrix said:

we haven’t cruised for a long time because of a lot of stuff going on the last few years. but we’re headed to the Bahamas in May for a short cruise just to get our sea legs back, and then on a 12 night cruise in November to celebrate our 15th wedding anniversary. both go out of Baltimore which is so convenient.

You always heading to the right places. I’d really like a cruise but just not sure I can be on a boat that long 

21 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'll admit it--I'm an emotional dude. Snow gets to me where more than it should but I do believe I am not far from being able to put snow in it's proper, more healthy place. But I am definitely not there yet...but I can see the cracks in the armor of this thing that has had it's gold on me. Yes I get out of line, (got out of line today) and gets rightfully smacked down when I do. Why I post like I do and as much as I do. Maybe it's because there aren't many others who share our passion for snow. I have no clue (part of this is an addiction I'm almost sure of it). Just gotta keep in mind all the other readers of this forum and not how I personally feel about where things are or what people post, no matter what it is.

I think should just turn to crack at this point. At least it’s more readily available than your snow 

33 minutes ago, DE2PA said:

No doubt. That one poster’s statement just had big “shut up and dribble” vibes. Like get over yourself lol

Im not sure I even want him dribbling at this point

Just now, mappy said:

I get it. And I agree with you. I cleaned it up. And will continue to do so as I see the posts and when I can. 

Thanks sorry for spazzing. Just start moving all his post that end with “lol” to banter so doesn’t distract from real discussion. Going to need welfare check on my guy here soon if he don’t step away from that thread 

1 minute ago, mappy said:

please dont do that again. i get that everyone is miserable bc we can't seem to get a flake to fall around here, but come on. 

Sorry but not cool for him to throw some temper tantrum and speak down to someone who actually contributes. I know I don’t have anything to add, so I sit back and read and learn. He should do the same as well. 
 

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Don't be a jerk and a bully.  There's an ignore function if his  posts bother you that much.

Take your own advice if you don’t like post boss

15 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

honestly we can't get worse than this. let's break some records while we're at it for latest measurable snow at dulles and least snowiest winter at dulles! i'm sure we can do atl the first

Or most consecutive weekends it rains

46 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

This winter and this thread in a nutshell 

IMO overall discussion seems much better this year compared to others. Besides @Maestrobjwapanic, I think most folks have been pretty chill considering how shitty things have been

Any 70s showing up in the long range? 50s aren’t cutting it after last week 

37 minutes ago, mappy said:

all i can think about when someone writes 10,000 character responses

Think this also applies for when those snow maps are posted 

Really sucks the fog decided to come in on night where folks may not be in their best shape. Hope folks stay safe 

Sounds like winter will be cancelled soon, so guess it’s for the best that we just torch through winter vs be cold and dry. 

47 minutes ago, 87storms said:

This afternoon might be a windows open kind of vibe.

Yeh man we did that down here yesterday. Think we level up today to shorts and margaritas

I know deep down some of y’all got to be appreciating how great it feels out there. 

1 hour ago, WesternFringe said:

@psuhoffman

When we grade students (you are in education like me, right?), do we use the median or the mean?  Why?  Do we use GPA (Grade Point Average) or GMA (Grade Median Average)?  Why?  We use the mean because it better represents all of a student's scores, not just the one grade in the middle.  Now, I am fully aware that outliers can skew the mean, but with an n of 136, that isn't an issue.  We worry about outliers skewing the mean when we have a low n (< 18), not with an n over 100.  This is why educators are usually required to have a certain minimum threshold for number of grades in determining a student's final grade.  I know no statistician that would be worried about skewing the mean with an n of 136, especially when none of the numbers in the data set are more than 4 times the mean.  If we had outliers of 200" of snow in a year when the mean is 15", then maybe.  Don't we wish.  But these annual snowfall outliers count, and should be represented in the data.  By using the median, one essentially takes all of the best years out of the data and reduces the n precipitously. This is a bad idea, especially with snow! lol

I am not saying that snowfall isn't decreasing for DC, but I am saying it has not been a drastic decrease (especially in our lifetimes).  This is the data set I used:

https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/dcasnow.pdf

I ran another linear regression starting with 1942, as you did.  The slope of that line is -0.058" and the standard error is -0.054".  The R squared is .01, which means 99% of the variability from year to year is random and not do to the independent variable, which in this case is time (presumably the climate changing over time).  

So, yes, DC is seeing .058" inches less of snow per year since 1942.  Most people wouldn't be able to notice the difference of .058" of snow per year.  If you can, you have superhuman perception.  99% (R squared) of the change in annual snowfall from 1942 is explained by randomness, and not due to the passage of time.  

The slope of the line goes down and up depending on the starting point, of course.  When I choose different starting points closer to present (to match the ages of folks in here and thus their winter memories), the slope of the line can be literally almost 0, or can actually be positive.  

In summary, I concede that the slope of the line is negative, and always have in my posts.  However, I also have learned that the human brain constantly looks for patterns and trends, even when they are non-existent or super small.  That is why I like stats and means and cold hard numbers.  Hats off to you sir if you can notice a decline of hundredths of an inch per year where 99% of the change is due to randomness, or statistical noise. 

No one can tell the future, but if I had to guess we have some monster years coming up in the El Nino years which will make the slope flatter and closer to zero. The sky isn't falling, we can still do snow, and good years lie ahead.  When 99% of the variability is random statistical noise, this tells me we are not in some inevitable downward spiral regarding snowfall.

Again, I stick by my conclusion that although annual DC snowfall is falling (no pun intended), the change is very small, not cataclysmic, and 99% due to randomness.    

This is probably good time to hop on quick zoom call to talk this one through