canderson

Those storms were obliterated by the mountains. Might get some light rain though. 

Yea I’m seeing already hw this is gonna split southern Dauphin/Cumberland/Perry/Historic Maytown. 

The Euro was AWFUL with Laura. The GFS nailed it. 

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Wow, it is only 88 here and I can be at the Capitol in less an an hour.  Crazy. 

MDT is only 93. 

Up to 98 - probably my 5th 100 day this year.

Just now, paweather said:

Some storms this afternoon? Winds are gusty here right now.

Gotta be north - above 80 north - I think. But they're going to get some strong storms up there later. 

96 degrees here already. Gusting to 26. Sustained around 15. 

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

@canderson-Hopefully you are able to contact your family and all is well.  Did not see a ton of damage into Texas but still early.  The theory that the surge was overblown due to the storm ramping up late is a solid one right now but not sure all the reports are in.  

I don't think surge was overblown - 30 miles of SW LA is uninhabitable marshland and if it's 20' underwater no one is gonna know. The angle with surge matters - LC apparently got lucky there. 

I bet Cameron and the local beach communities are gone. 

17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

@canderson-Hopefully you are able to contact your family and all is well.  Did not see a ton of damage into Texas but still early.  The theory that the surge was overblown due to the storm ramping up late is a solid one right now but not sure all the reports are in.  

They're so far all good - Houston barely had 25 mph winds. My parents in East Texas very close to the border are in the western eyewall now and having some really severe winds and insane rain ... far worse than Houston. Rita did the same thing. 

5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Ugh it's not a good outlook for most of a lot of those communities. I hope the ones in Port Arthur, Lake Charles, and Nederland evacuated. The way this storm is moving at a half decent clip it's going to take hurricane force wind gusts way inland. Hurricane hunter's are finding pressures in the 930s now. Like I said in my last post, this is probably coming in peak intensity. It's sort of looking like the situation with Hurricane Michael back in 2018. 

As bad as this is going to be on the coast and well inland for those that get into the core of the storm, the fact this thing is going to split the uprights and landfall in a pretty rural stretch between Galveston/Houston and New Orleans is a miracle. Couldn't imagine this coming straight up Galveston Bay or into SE LA below NOLA. 

 

It’s gonna destroy so much land that’ll be lost the Gulf but yea, it’s hitting about the best possible place between Houston and NO. That unfortunately means Lake Charles is going to never be the same again.

18 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Well Laura escalated quickly today, geesh. I'm not really surprised this ran up to a 4 as this is what organized hurricanes in the very warm Gulf do this time of the year when the surrounding conditions are conducive. It def has "the look" now with the symmetric central dense overcast and very well defined and equally symmetric eye. NHC notes in their disco possible increase of SW shear and maybe an eyewall replacement cycle right as it's coming in but there's not much time for either of those things to do much if it happens. It's moving at a steady pace. I think this thing's probably going to come in near peak intensity (within 10mph either side of its current 145 sustained).   Could this crack a 5? Maybe an outside chance...although the pressure's a little high. 940s type pressure usually are suggestive of a cat 4 or even a high 3. It would probably have to really deepen a good bit more pressure wise down at least into the 920-930ish range. 

Either way this is going to have a tremendous storm surge into southern LA/extreme SE TX. The low lying marshland/bayous that make up the immediate several miles to the coastline are going be inundated easily and that's why NHC has very strong wording with the storm surge as it is going to penetrate miles inland from the actual coast. 

Where are some of the people you know located in that area?

Beaumont, Port Arthur, Lake Charles, DeRitter, Nederland and then many from Galveston / Houston area. 

But then so many around Nacogdoches and Shreveport and Longview - my parents are 30 miles from the border. They had 75 mph winds in Rita in NE Texas. 

Those beautiful pine forest are gonna be decimated.

I know so many that are gonna be devastated by Laura and I can do nothing to help.  I’m kinda distraught. 

2 hours ago, paweather said:

Looks like next week the heat will be on break at the very least good news. But heck this is not a hot summer. 

Is that a prolonged stretch of low, low 80s (at best) and lower-than-normal humidity I see next week???

19 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Most model consensus has been focusing near that TX/LA border region for landfall, with the EC ensemble mean having been running uncomfortably close to the Galveston/Houston region. Looks like the 18z Euro ensemble cluster shifted east a bit from 12z, putting the mean near the border region. Galveston/Houston is probably going to get at least a piece of this hurricane but hopefully staying on the west side of the storm will mitigate storm surge issues some in that area. It seems Port Arthur is most under the gun attm in terms of any bigger town, but the storm making a landfall up that coastline toward the border would generally be a plus because there is not much at all on that stretch population wise and even that immediate corridor inland this storm is likely to take is pretty rural. What could be significantly impacted on that forecast track is oil infrastructure, especially with a major hurricane which is what Laura is likely to be at that stage. The new 18z Euro op has it coming in at 945mb. 

The issue there is it’s nothing but oil refineries. Nearly all gas comes from the PA / Texas City area. 

The storms today are pro-confederacy - nothing north of the border.  

Forecast high: 90
Current high: 94

Winds pretty gusty too - up to around 25 mph. 

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

With due respect to Canderson's family and hoping for the best Laura getting to Cat 4 is not out of the realm of possibility at this point. 

Let's hope the current shear holds serve. 

FWIW my family isn't evacuating - they live between Houston and Galveston and then about 8 miles east of Galveston itself. 

Wind just really picked up here even though the storm is tracking slightly north. Must be some big outflows going on.

16 minutes ago, paweather said:

wow so that nice cell over Canderson dissipated before getting to me. Thanks Canderson.  

A big one is missing me to the north that should hit you! 

IT. IS. STILL. RAINING. HARD.

The tiniest little cell just popped over Enola. Lots of deep thunder heard in the city. Then, we have some rain happening!!!!

Laura is gonna he trouble for me fam. Then it’s gonna come flood parts of PA, I’d bet. 
 

Also @Voyager is having rotator cuff surgery today. I know 3 people who’ve had it - one did the therapy to a T, the others didn’t. The others never recovered fully while the one who did it is totally well. Do the PT! 

Radar showed returns but nada. 

Hey neat Laura is looking like it’ll possibly my family directly. Awesome.