About as loud as CTP can bark ...
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Certainly a stormier pattern shaping up with significant
energy embedded in the upper flow, especially in the southern
stream, which usually makes for exciting weather at this time of
year around these parts.
Latest medium range guidance shows a warmer solutions for
Monday precipitation event. This is primarily noticeable over
the Lower Susquehanna Valley where event snow totals now are
under an inch at best. Collaboratively lowered snow fall
accums, again most significantly over the Lower Susq. Remainder
of period looks similar to pvs runs.
Pvs...
. Things look even more interesting for the mid-
week storm. Many members and deterministic models are generating
large QPFs and the temps look to be entirely cold through the
(potential) event. Still too early to get all too excited, but
this has the look of the first significant snow of the season.
The possibility of advy and warning amounts of snow are
climbing. Will continue to mention this in the HWO, and speak a
little louder via other avenues - to bring out our increase in
confidence. Timing and mass fields/QPF have been in fairly good
agreement to this point in time. Still.......it is a day-5
potential event.