canderson

Had not seen that - wild weather across the state the past two days and moving into the next few.

The GFS might e right but it’s absolutely garbage imo right now.

Winds are here

I contend this region is the windiest in the country that isn’t a mountain peak or peninsula.

It’s pouring rain

@MAG5035 and you should see the strongest with elevation but down sloping here is always a major factor to increase them so we’ll see. F wind.

It’s raining here now.

It doesn’t hit until the front passes and the H out in re Midwest sinks. There will be a 60-70knt 850m jet that will get pushed down with the tight gradient what high is pushing our way

37 has been my high.

Doing regionwide warnings has always bothered me when it comes to front passages.

Roanoke gets smoked. I’ll give it until after 12z tomorrow to punt entirely but since every storm this year has deamped I’m expecting a partly cloud, bitterly cold Wednesday and Thursday. Then a warm up begins as winter seems to be quickly winding up.

12z GFS is virtually nothing for all of PA - maybe 1.5” in border areas of York/Lancaster We seem to be essentially now hoping we can get some WAA snow out of the system - there is zero interaction so no chance of a phase. It also torches toward the end of the run. Gets near 80 in the LSV.

It will suck the moment the front passes until Monday early afternoon. Then still suck but probably be not constant 55 mph winds.

Windy

Right???? We are seeing Sarah Snook (Shiv) play all 27 characters in Pictures of Dorian Gray in April and I’m so excited.

It is the first high wind warning since February 2019, per CTP. That storm took out a lot of my siding and some shingles. I fear a tree coming down on us overnight. No sleep for me the next 36 or so hours. Winds won’t calm down Tuesday afternoon. They’re going to have to extend wind headlines into Tuesday. This is going to suuuuuuuxk

Maybe another 1-2” event if we get lucky next week? Sucks but the phase we need seems to be out of reach. What a terrible turn of events. But storms have stayed S all year so why change now. It has been a fun winter even if it’s close to being over and we strike out on all the positive influences next week. It happens. Totals aren’t big here but it’s felt and looked like winter since early January. Now we can focus on the major wind storm hitting PA. It’s gong to be news worthy.

Time change is in 2 weeks. That kills model watching for me.

CTP all in on a major wind storm After the cold front moves through, there is very high confidence in a 24-30 hour period of quite strong/gusty west to west-northwest winds sustained at 20-30 mph with gusts of 45-60+ mph from Sunday afternoon through Monday. BUFKIT soundings support mixing to at least 850mb Sunday evening through Monday, tapping into a strong 60kt jet. A period of very strong gusts immediately behind the front will be followed by a prolonged stretch of gusty winds that will continue Sunday night and into Monday afternoon. Have issued a High Wind Watch for all but Warren County, where the risk for 50kt gusts is high enough to warrant a Watch. A Wind Advisory (40+ kt gusts) is a sure bet for the entire region, but High Wind Warnings will likely be needed for a portion of Central PA Sunday evening into Monday.

Everyone safely got to our event. And I assume home since roads are much better now than at 12:45. Storm next week seems destine for a southern mauler but hope these models are wrong and we get the goods too.

Still mod snow in the city. Looks like 1-1.25”

Oof the Euro looks like the GFS a bit now. Big diff from the Ukie.

The Euro should hold serve given that Ukie run.

The Harvey Taylor is a disaster holy crap