dryslot

I agree.

I won't sweat the op run, See what i did there?

Probably not that magnitude, Shorter duration, 22 yr anniversary was on the 4th for that one.

Going to get pretty icy i think this weekend.

Could be, Didn't delve in that deep yet.

Squeezing that thru a narrow area between the high to the NNW and the SE ridge, That's a good damming signature though up here.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if the siggy ice ends up somewhere in SNE.

Someone will see siggy ice, And some others are going to see siggy snow, And others will see just rain from this.

Ha, Like they read my mind..... A major pattern shift commences thereafter with building heights and a warm trend, especially aloft, heading into the weekend. A northern stream clipper crosses Quebec early in the weekend which provides another chance at light rain or snow and a reinforcing shot of cold advection. This could set the stage for a complex mixed precipitation event as warm frontal/overrunning precipitation renews along the stalled front by the middle and end of the weekend in response to approaching southern stream shortwave trough moving SW to NE. This of course is highly dependent on the position of the stalled front and thus the southern extent of a cold low-level airmass; at this time there is model agreement that strong high pressure over ON/QC will provide cold flow from the north enough to push and keep this boundary south over southern New England Saturday night. We still have broadly diverging solutions to contend with at this stage regarding impacts with some solutions suggesting cool temps through the column yielding a rain/snow mix, but others place warm temperatures aloft over cool surface temperatures which would result widespread ice or sleet Saturday night into Sunday. Anomalously high heights allow a juicy airmass to develop with PWAT presently progged to exceed 1.0" by early Sunday, 3-4 standard deviations above normal. Total QPF could thus be on the order of 2-3" where the boundary sets up with models for now placing the axis of rain from northern New York state extending eastward into central and northern New England.

Euro has it too but it was further north at 12z, Some high Pwats with this one so it will have the juice.

I think you will see this push further south in time, That's a very cold high to the NW that models underestimate at longer leads.

Its a heck of a gradient, But at least from the trajectory this one looks to take, There would be a pretty wide swath and another one follows this one that looks to be a SWFE that moves underneath us too.

That's a sharp cutoff to the precip within a few miles to the south........lol

I like where this is going, That's a stout high that's building in at the same time the slp moves along the front pressing the boundary south.

That's a nice run on the 18z GFS for the weekend system, That is cold and got frozen even into SNE this run.

Just started, -SN 19/15°F, Should be some dry fluff.

Radar don't look to bad off to the SW with that clipper, May see 1" or so.

This far out we will see fluctuations, The key is the HP that try's to build south.

Quite the temp gradient to the north and south of the front.

The s/w was a little more amped down south this run so it was slightly further north of the 06z run but still was quite a bit of snow to the north and a mix in the southern areas of NNE/CNE.

Very high Pwats with that coming up from the gulf.

Those clown maps though.............

All of them.

06z GFS is colder then the 0z run for the weekend system, Looks like more on the frozen side for NNE.

Seems like most of these lakes cutters dampen out and end up further east as we get into the mid range, Yeah those 60F calls up in NNE are tough to achieve this time of year with clouds and low sun angle.