After brief shortwave ridging and a dry Saturday night/Sunday, the second storm system will approach from the southwest. This system will develop along the residual baroclinic gradient left in the wake of the first low along the trailing cold front, with cyclogenesis developing in response to renewed height falls/mid-level divergence and the LFQ of a subsequent jet streak arcing poleward from the Deep South. While there is uncertainty into the exact track of this second low as it will depend somewhat on the evolution of the first system, it is quite likely that a low will move offshore the Mid-Atlantic and then pass near the Benchmark before lifting into the Gulf of Maine Monday night. As this occurs, the mid-level shortwave will deepen and close off, potentially capturing the surface low which will be slowing due to downstream ridging. The ridging downstream could be significant enough to block eastward progress of this low, and while there is quite a bit of spread in the ensembles by D3, a track more NW of the operational runs seems likely as the downstream ridge gets reinforced and the upper trough interacts with this low. Current WPC probabilities are modest for 4 inches both D2 (Catskills and terrain of SNE) and D3 (Maine and NH), but there is potential for quite a bit more, especially in Maine, where a stalling or retrograding low with persistent theta-e advection may occur and CIPS analogs suggest a greater than 60% chance for 6" of snow. After coordination with the offices believe the ensemble approach showing a subtle upward trend in probabilities is best at this time.