dryslot
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Everything posted by dryslot
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I do the opposite, Euro seems to be a little more exaggerated with it, But you could probably do that with others but then you would be missing out on the most current data as i think the day of the off hour runs on modeling are different, But again, That's outside of the Euro. -
It actually didn't if your on the fringes.
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Looks like western areas got trimmed at 12z if its correct.
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The on hr off hr deal continues.
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Its going to end up the same or a tic east but basically noise as i had said.
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Just looking at heights out ahead on the 12z Euro @H5 , Looks like this may tic west a little, May just end up noise at this point.
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You know its a pattern change when hr 384 starts having blizzards show up on the GFS.
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What a disaster here this morning with the ice, Brother in law slipped and fell and broke his Femur he's in the hospital.
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Could be blizzard conditions too.
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I've been there too, Its cute.
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I wouldn't get to twisted up on the RGEM, Its not done very well although, Its better within the last 24 hrs or so as it catches up to the rest of guidance, But have found outside of that it waffles considerably.
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That's what you want, But it seems like the convection blows up as it moves north.
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Looks like reggie wants to mix the cape on 12z
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A problem, You would want that weaker or not at all, Not looking to be the case.
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That is always the concern with these, Convection more times then not screw it up, Its usually more harm then help as i have found even though it should work the other way too.
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Its clear here, Its gets pulled towards that convection as the model can't reconcile where it wants the SLP, You can see where it would be if that convection wasn't there, But at this point, I'm thinking its real it keeps showing up, But if its not, There are still changes coming.
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It would probably stay more offshore but it would track closer to the cape i would think.
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That is where that slp should be, If you resolve that convection, This would be tracking well west, That's the only thing saving this right now from hugging or just offshore.
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3K a bit better though.
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Always some small nuance to mess up the track of these systems, You get two to go in your favor then your stuck with another.
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Its chasing that convection again, But you can see that ares west of it is where it wants to track
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That s/w is a bit stronger too.
