In a nutshell
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1150 AM Update: Further refinement to PoPs as convection moves
east along elevated warm front. Also have lowered temperatures
across the board as they were well behind previous forecast
values...though they should start to warm as we move into the
early afternoon as some breaks are beginning to show up in GOES
16 VIS imagery over southern VT/NH. 13Z RAOB from UAlbany shows
a very impressive llevel wind profile with decent winds not that
far off the ground at GYX per recent VWP. So...the severe and
TOR threat is certainly there with sufficient boundary layer
instability. No other significant changes to the forecast at
this time with Flood Watch and Heat Advisories remaining
unchanged though we will likely struggle to reach heat indices
of 95F given the lower expected temperatures.
Going to be very limited if it comes out at all, Right now showery rate of 0.14"/hr is falling with some heavier echoes just to the west, 3 cents worth has fallen so far.
Sun is in and out here, MC, 73/68°F, Looking at radar, We are going to need that line of showers over the lakes region in NH to push through and out of here to get into some full sun.