Garbage
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Overview: Unsettled weather dominates the long term forecast
with a parade of upper level lows and troughs bringing a
prolonged period of convective rain showers to the region.
Impacts: Heavy rain in convective showers raise hydro concerns
beginning Saturday.
Details: Shower chances creep back into the forecast Friday as an
upper low settles over the Ohio Valley. This begins the streaming of
moisture into the northeast. The growing instability necessitates
chances of showers and thunderstorms. Thickening clouds will keep
temperatures in the 70s for most with far north areas, who will be
the last to see them, having the best chance of seeing 80. The low
slowly shifts eastward into the Mid Atlantic region Saturday,
continuing the southerly flow and advection of moisture rich air
into our neck of the woods. This drives mean PWATs into the 1.5 to
1.75 range, with maxes around 2.00 inches. Models continue to show
sufficient instability which increases confidence that convective
showers will lead to heavy rain. Being that most of our CWA is
fairly saturated from this pattern, hydro impacts will be monitored
closely.
The low looks to open up as it moves into our area on Sunday, but
with another trough diving into the Great Lakes region there will be
plenty of forcing to continue a heavy rain threat through Sunday. As
the first trough exits it will go negatively tilted keeping periods
of rain the in the forecast for Monday as well.
Models differ on the timing and magnitude of the next upper level
trough as it looks to swing into our area on Tuesday or Wedensday,
but another period of rain and convective showers appears likely due
to the similarities of this set up compared to this weekend.
&&