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PackGrad05

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Posts posted by PackGrad05

  1. 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

    I’m beginning to think this one might become quite interesting for us NC folks

    What's ironic is that it will have more of an impact that then remnants of the one a few weeks ago.  The difference it that it doesn't come with all the "hype" that the other one did.

    • Like 3
    • Weenie 1
  2. 16 minutes ago, eyewall said:

    I think for Raleigh we may be too far NW to see much out of this. I am just hoping one solid outer band makes it up for drone shots.

    High res NAM and HRRR are still showing a steady rain from this afternoon all the way to mid-morning.  I definitely think the big story will be ponding/localized flooding.  Morning commute could be messy.  Scattered power outages as always.
    Big gradient possible across Wake (as always). 

    • Like 1
  3. Looking at impacts for NC, particularly central NC.  Getting in range of high-res models.  NAM 3K is bullish on some heavy rain bands setting up, particularly Thursday morning thru mid-day.  Could get pretty gusty as well during those bands.  Most of central NC in flood watch now.

    • Like 1
  4. There is still a decent amount of spread in the ensembles (both EPS and GEFS) with regards to impacts on the SE coast.   The exact track will determine impacts not only at the coast, but inland.  
     

    • Like 2
  5. 18 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

    Honestly, I don't think the ensembles have been any better in the extended than the operationals.  

    So Pack, was the signal a faint distant heartbeat, or something more solid?  Feel like Lucy is back at it again.

    TW

    The EPS has had the signal for the past 3-4 days....  it is more faint now, but still there.  

    GEFS has not been as robust...  honestly the most recent run only had one member out of 30....

    I'm just a snow lover at heart and want to see some falling.

  6. Models are back to being more aggressive with the non-convective wind gusts across the Piedmont, with gusts possibly to 50 mph+. Starting to look like this may be the bigger story than severe weather, for NC anyway.

    WRAL just showed wind forecast and the highest it got was around 20s tomorrow night.
    Didn’t act like it was a big deal here.


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