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Posts posted by PackGrad05

  1. The 12Z EPS still had some members showing snow for RDU around 24/25.  

    We don't need extended cold around here.  We just need the cold and moisture to sync up at the right time.  

    Most of the recent snows in central NC have barely stuck to the roads (if at all) and were melted off the grass by the next day or two.  

  2. Climatologically, February is not that far off from January for RDU in amount of snow.  

    Yes, January is the best chance, but February has produced great events.  Once we get to February 20 is when I start getting more concerned.

    Being completely blanked is still on the table for sure.  But so is getting a 10" storm.

    • Sad 1
  3. The 18Z GEFS looks very similar to the 12Z EPS, with most of the good snow being west of I-85...

    The GEFS also shows the precipitation beginning on Friday 1/13 and lasting until 1/15.

    Temperatures too warm for central NC.  EURO shows highs near 37 on Saturday during bulk of precip.  Triad and west stays around freezing.

    • Haha 1
  4. We missed the chance with the prolonged cold.  Unless the pattern shifts, we are going to need to rely on great timing with a quick cold blast and a low moving in a favorable path.  That's typically what we end up getting anyway.  Snow in the morning and melted by the afternoon.  

    The ensembles do show some members picking up on a system around the 15th.  

  5. 23 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

    That was obviously a disaster of a run with all the cold in the west. Seattle in the single digits is never good for us. Troubling thing is, each Op run is showing this with greater significance. 

    sfct.conus (3).png

    To me, that looks like a frontal boundary headed east.  I would expect that cold air (not as cold, but cold) to move east after this image.  

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