PackGrad05

GFS was nice. 

FWIW, the 00Z HRRR was about 50-75 miles west with the edge than 18Z

Mike maze just posted the euro ensembles increased.


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Watch euro and EPS come back west.

The suppression is not the only reason.
The storm is less amped and stayed too positive tilt to really ramp up and move north. The path is there if it strengthens


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Both euro and eps shifted NW. I’m surprised folks here have given up unless I’m the only one in southeast wake or east of that.
Still going to be some pretty snow falling and might surprise some folks.


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New blend


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Still expecting a trace to half inch for southeast portions of wake and into joco


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For NC, ensembles have been spot on for days now. Don’t look at specific amounts. Look at where they are focusing.
This has been an eastern NC storm for days now.


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Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Euro more suppressed. Almost no precip in NC besides immediate coast

If the ensembles follow that trend, then I'm done with this one.

This always happens. After the huge shift yesterday, expect models to recoil back to the west today.


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12Z NAM has 6-9 hours of snow for eastern NC...  the northwest edge gets pretty much to I-95

5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

What a waste of a prolonged January cold snap. If you told me we’d be more than -7 through the first 20 days of January I’d definitely taken my chances 

Just lends more credit to the theory that our area has to have "Goldilocks" conditions..   Too cold and we miss out to the northwest...  Too warm and we miss out to the southeast.  So difficult...

I still think we see snow in Wake County.  It may not be enough to play with, but roads will not be fun Wednesday morning

Chris Michaels at WRAL does a great job explaining things and keeping it real:

 

RAH says in their morning discussion that snow is still likely from generally US-1 to the east.


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06Z Euro is similar to the 0Z run. I may see a few snowflakes here, but congrats to GAWX down in SAV. It was probably too much to hope for us getting two good solid snow events in one winter,

Weather track first call


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I’m still very happy with where things are. Blend of models and EPS looks good for my area.


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Nothing new from GFS so no worries. GEFS has always looked better which says the deterministic is held up on some bad data. Outlier.


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How in the world are some of you throwing in the towel? No, this isn’t going to be a ten inch snow for central NC, but a lot of folks are still going to see a nice snow (even if only an inch).

I still consider myself on a snow drought bc all we got was sleet during the storm on the tenthth.

The signals are great for central NC to the coast to get some snow. No mixing issues and high ratios. Plus instant sticking due to super cold antecedent conditions.


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2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

You know there are also cities down east like Kinston, New Bern, Jacksonville, etc which are much more in the game

Of course

The euro is showing normal ratios. They will be higher so increase those amounts by one inch


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It is still very much game on for garner, fuquay, knightdale, Clayton, benson, Wilson, Smithfield, etc etc etc.


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The GEFS is better and gets light coverage up to I-95....i notice it is also slower than other models