PackGrad05

6Z GFS likes March 8 for some snow!  

The end of the GFS wants to dump a lot of arctic air down onto the east coast.

The EPS and GEFS are showing snow for portions of central NC with the PD storm.  EURO OP also shows it.  

GFS OP is a near miss.  Interestingly, the GFS OP looks better in the longer range than it has with another 2-3 opportunities.

It isn't far at all.  Need to watch afternoon ensemble runs. 

February 18/19 has EPS and GEFS support.  and EPS has some "noise" on a couple other events after that...  

Still liking the look over next 7-14 days.  I like the look of the storm for VD and for PD.  Just need a little suppression and we are in business.

If you are basing your predictions on a each model run of the OP GFS, then you might as well just look at your apple weather app.  

The overall pattern over the next two weeks is as good as we can hope for.  At least 2-4 storms rolling through the south and a chance to hook up with some cold air.  The EPS looks the best it has looked this morning.  GEFS coming on board as well.  

18Z OP GFS looked nice to me.  Plenty of chances to reel something in.  

EPS and ensembles still have noise, too.

14 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Brad P ain’t having it, at all. Saying this period, and thus this winter, has no chance 

Source?  Link?

Pattern between 2/14 and 2/25 still looks really nice.

The 18Z GFS really looked nice.  3 storms with some cold air from February 14 onward.  Suppressed for now for the last two.

12Z GFS still has good signal for 17-20 time period.  EPS on board with noise around that time as well.

We are just now getting into range of the middle of February...  and even that is still in fantasy land. 

I like the look of the long range.  

February 15-17 looks decent..  Definitely has the split flow look.

the 18Z GFS was so close.  The high pressure is less transient and the low was suppressed just enough.

Not writing off this one until Thursday/Friday.  Still time for it to go the other way.

23 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

12z GEFS is a solid hit for the foothills and mountains of VA and NC... also wintry into the Piedmont of NC and VA

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Yeah roughly 10 out of 30 show something for central NC...   more so at the mountains.

EPS and GEFS both have the 5/6 system...   EPS backed off the last 3 runs..  We will see if the trend reverses.  Still there, though.

We have the entire month of February and even some of March.  5 days ago, we weren't even discussing February 5-6.  It is still worth watching.  

Is it possible we go without?  Absolutely.  But nothing is guaranteed.  There's still plenty of time.

EPS shows 20% chance of 1" of snow for Wake County.  GEFS shows 3% chance.  GEFS pretty much lost the storm with the 18z run.

Highs in the 30s are more rare than highs in the 70s this time of year.


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12Z also suppressed.  50/50 low is in a good spot, but the high over the NE is weak (only 1026mb)

EPS is still on board with the system, and GEFS really jumped on board.

Interestingly enough, EPS also showing some flurries/trace of snow with Feb 1 system.

12Z EPS probabilities increased slightly for Wake County...  44% chance of a trace and 26% chance of an inch, over next 10 days.

The control run is a little faster than other models and has a classic NE NC signature around elizabeth city area

EPS currently showing a 38% chance of trace of snow for Wake over next 14 days.  18% chance of 1 inch.