wxdawg10

The levels of meltdown from Northeast weenies on social media the past 2 days has been insane.

This is incorrect.

This is a very tough forecast for all mets. So let's not do the blame game. As with any difficult forecast, you always go conservative. If you're bullish and you miss, that can be credibility damaging. makes sense to me. it's a mindset i think everyone here needs to have.

man..who died in here?

This shouldn't surprise anyone. That's how it goes. Always temper your expectations no matter what the models show. Our friends in the Northeast experienced the exact same thing with this storm. and we down here..know that story all too well. With that said, lets see how the trends go tomorrow before the cliff diving begins. This does seem like an extreme solution. and this is coming from an expert cliff diver

https://x.com/wxbrad/status/1881781215746785475?t=KPHMcBT6ucU6VPLk8MlbEw&s=09 Brad P says..huh what trends?

https://x.com/NWSRaleigh/status/1881756564039852311?t=KtlENN7_1NFYfYL-8zy1Ig&s=19 warnings extended west

They have PTSD from getting burned by past storms for being bullish. They wont pull the trigger until the last minute

WRAL gets a lot of blame for this storm..but were there any other outlets locally or nationally calling for more than a couple of inches around central NC? i don't remember. if so then i think WRAL can be let off the hook a bit due to a collective meteorological screw up

Always go for the latter. a pleasant surprise is better than constant disappointment.

sad.

no not really..NWS is very comfortable with what they already put out. I know you're trying to hold on to hope but this one is over my friend

that will never happen again. modeling gets better every year. Sure there will always be some surprises and you might get some under modeled snow fall. but nothing to the level of what happened in 2000. Technology is too good for that.

all time flame out..atleast you all got to see it crash and burn the day before so can cry away the sadness. i remember 8 inch storms that turned out to be a dusting to cold rain the day of! that's what radicalized me. lol !

i do hope some of our GA and coastal NC folks cash in. They've had it worse than even some of us.

i see alot of cliff diving..well i've been down here for awhile would like to extend a net for those who want it

RAH never bit on this storm either. Also credit to Brad P, he was never sold on the NW trend and people were fighting him on twitter about it. Times like these make you realize why they are pro and we are amateurs.

The all mighty "king" Euro bows down and caves in spectacular fashion to the GFS..the real king? knew it was over when people started model hugging the CMC as the great beacon of hope. oh well.

lol. the only person the models fooled was you. everyone else here was cautious. i hope you remember all this next time a storm is modeled. for your own good. You live in NC. this is what happens. accept it.

Brick. I'm sorry but you know better. Don't blame the models. you've been on this board for how long? how many times have you seen this play out? The fact that you went all in based on that crazy Euro run was ridiculous to begin with. I'm sorry brother but that's on you. Models spit out whatever is the flavor of the day. You gotta eat this one.

Honestly, it sucks being a debbie downer all the time but it's just my way of coping with how often we get screwed. and it helps..That way anything more is just gravy. But i will offer some words of encouragement. Some of the best storms we've seen im the south have been overperformers and last minute surprises. It's rare that a big storm down here is forecasted in advance with certainty. It's always a dance until the last minute. And this storm has all the characteristics of a storm that can easily overperform. so it ain't over till it's over. Just don't expect it. Always be measured in your expectations. I do like that almost everyone is getting in on some action this winter. Better than years past. Good luck to all

where would this CMC upset rank among modeling upsets? might be top 5. There's a NAM upset from a storm i remember that shook up the met community that's probably top

The GFS is a great model..but also an excellent troll. It's been complete garbage on so many storms. Yet It's got the most wins against the Euro compared to all the other models. So even when it's the outlier..it can never be discounted. Everyone is forced to nervously hang on to every run with bated breaths. quite hilarious in a twisted cosmic sense.

The stove is hot and always burns but for some reason..people keep touching it