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Posts posted by high risk
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1 hour ago, George BM said:
Another relatively strange (for this area anyway) elevated storm event was what occurred on the evening of April 3, 2011. Radar returns were not too impressive as activity moved through from NW to SE from mid evening into the first few hours of April 4th. But there was photogenic lightning for several hours, especially across northern MD from Frederick, MD and between Baltimore and DC.
I remember that event. The lightning was incredible.
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9 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:
Is there ducting going on?
For sure. There is a stout low-level inversion which is perfect for getting those loud rolling rumbles.
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Very bizarre. The model soundings certainly don't suggest thunder, unless you lift a parcel from up around 700 mb, and that's rarely a path to thunder here.
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28 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:
Remember when @high risk, the guy who helps program them, told us that the hrrr and rap suck?
For snow. Jesus, I'm gonna get fired.
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1 minute ago, MDScienceTeacher said:
But the GFS just showed more than the HRRR
I was mostly speaking in jest, but 1) 10:1 maps are not good for interpreting model snowfall in events like these 2) I'm still troubled by the NAM Nest not showing much here. Maybe it will cave at 00Z, but it has a good track record in events like these at shorter ranges.
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Goddamnit, y'all. I have literally worked as a RAP/HRRR developer, and I would still use the JMA or NAVGEM before I used the RAP/HRRR system for snow amounts.
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5 minutes ago, RickinBaltimore said:
From NOAA:
The Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) next generation convection-allowing, rapidly-updated ensemble prediction system, currently scheduled for operational implementation in 2024. The operational configuration will feature a 3 km grid covering North America and include deterministic forecasts every hour out to 18 hours, with deterministic and ensemble forecasts to 60 hours four times per day at 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC.The RRFS will provide guidance to support forecast interests including, but not limited to, aviation, severe convective weather, renewable energy, heavy precipitation, and winter weather on timescales where rapidly-updated guidance is particularly useful.minor addendum: it's still very much experimental and is not scheduled for implementation now until 2025
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It's not the kiss of death, but major red flags should always be raised with regards to accepting a 12 km NAM solution when its 3 km nest shows something different.
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It always warms my heart to see the snow depth maps posted here, but this is not the type of event for which they do well. They limit accumulation when surface temps and soil are warm, and they'll never capture the ability of heavy rates to overcome marginal thermodynamics. I'd probably either average the 10:1 and snow depth products or mentally adjust the 10:1 maps downward. Kuchera maps might be good too - I hate how generous they are with colder temps, but they seem to properly limit accumulations when the temperature is marginal.
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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:
lol anyone look at radar lately??? Da fuq??
bright banding??
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I don't think that this is a storm for which the super generous Kuchera ratios will work well. It's not super cold, and lift does not appear to be maximized in the DGZ. With cold ground and temps a few degrees below freezing, this might be one of those cases in which the 10:1 maps actually work pretty well.
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One other thing, and perhaps I missed discussion of this: a few CAMs and the GFS show a period of light snow here Thursday evening with the lead wave.
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Surface temperatures are super marginal, so it might have some difficulty sticking on roads once we get past 8am or so. That said, the road surfaces should be plenty cold going into the event, so rates might still get the job done.
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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:
7.5F for the low so far.
Nice! I don't have that sort of precision on my station, but it is showing 6 this morning.
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3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:
Big difference on the same model
The 12 km parent and 3 km nest have different diffusion, so differences in 500 evolution can and do happen.
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The northward shift in that run also makes us a bit warmer at the surface, which reduces the ability of the snow to stick during the daytime hours, although surfaces at least will overall be cold.
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22 minutes ago, stormtracker said:
18z NAM running. Should be at 60 hr+ at around 7:45pm
correction: The actual model run will run on time as it does 99% of the time. The TT graphics processing, run on a 1984 Commodore 64, will be ready by bedtime.
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5 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:
We thinking normal operations for schools tomm? Or delays? Low of 11 tonight and negative windchills. Brrr.
.Depends whether they can clear all of the side streets and sidewalks today and give them time to dry out this afternoon before the temps plummet later. Anything that isn't dry will freeze hard tonight, so I would say that there could be delays or closings again tomorrow.
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4" here in southern Howard County
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Traffic maps across the region look far worse than I expected to see during the daylight hours on a holiday. Likely to look much worse when the sun sets and rates increase.
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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:
I prefer a model that is too slow on eroding cold air damming. For Example, if it shows you're above freezing by 12:00 pm and we know it has a cold bias, then it boosts confidence that things will clear up in the afternoon.
I agree 100%, and the NAM Nest is that model. It's sometimes a bit too slow in eroding the cold air, but that's better than the GFS and HRRR which wipe it out way too fast.
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February Discobs 2024
in Mid Atlantic
Posted
This is what I was saying, based on the forecasted soundings. If you start a parcel around 700 mb (710, to be precise, per the diagnostics), you do have some actual CAPE. It's just rare here to get convection based that high. The April 2011 comparison you made is likely a really good one.