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high risk

Meteorologist
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Posts posted by high risk

  1. 54 minutes ago, George BM said:

    There some very skinny elevated CAPE depicted on the 0z IAD sounding w/ an EL all the way up around 33,000ft. A very small slither of CINH around 575mb.

    22320240ziadsounding.thumb.gif.139e5e1ef80752e5e5bfe5dd2294cda5.gif

           This is what I was saying, based on the forecasted soundings.   If you start a parcel around 700 mb (710, to be precise, per the diagnostics), you do have some actual CAPE.    It's just rare here to get convection based that high.    The April 2011 comparison you made is likely a really good one.

     

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  2. 1 hour ago, George BM said:

    Another relatively strange (for this area anyway) elevated storm event was what occurred on the evening of April 3, 2011. Radar returns were not too impressive as activity moved through from NW to SE from mid evening into the first few hours of April 4th. But there was photogenic lightning for several hours, especially across northern MD from Frederick, MD and between Baltimore and DC.

           I remember that event.    The lightning was incredible.

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  3. 1 minute ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

    But the GFS just showed more than the HRRR

         I was mostly speaking in jest, but   1) 10:1 maps are not good for interpreting model snowfall in events like these     2)  I'm still troubled by the NAM Nest not showing much here.   Maybe it will cave at 00Z, but it has a good track record in events like these at shorter ranges.

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  4. 5 minutes ago, RickinBaltimore said:

    From NOAA:
    The Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) next generation convection-allowing, rapidly-updated ensemble prediction system, currently scheduled for operational implementation in 2024. The operational configuration will feature a 3 km grid covering North America and include deterministic forecasts every hour out to 18 hours, with deterministic and ensemble forecasts to 60 hours four times per day at 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC.The RRFS will provide guidance to support forecast interests including, but not limited to, aviation, severe convective weather, renewable energy, heavy precipitation, and winter weather on timescales where rapidly-updated guidance is particularly useful.

               minor addendum:    it's still very much experimental and is not scheduled for implementation now until 2025

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  5. It always warms my heart to see the snow depth maps posted here, but this is not the type of event for which they do well.    They limit accumulation when surface temps and soil are warm, and they'll never capture the ability of heavy rates to overcome marginal thermodynamics.     I'd probably either average the 10:1 and snow depth products or mentally adjust the 10:1 maps downward.   Kuchera maps might be good too - I hate how generous they are with colder temps, but they seem to properly limit accumulations when the temperature is marginal.  

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  6. 5 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

    We thinking normal operations for schools tomm? Or delays? Low of 11 tonight and negative windchills. Brrr.


    .

                Depends whether they can clear all of the side streets and sidewalks today and give them time to dry out this afternoon before the temps plummet later.    Anything that isn't dry will freeze hard tonight, so I would say that there could be delays or closings again tomorrow.

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  7. Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

    I prefer a model that is too slow on eroding cold air damming. For Example, if it shows you're above freezing by 12:00 pm and we know it has a cold bias, then it boosts confidence that things will clear up in the afternoon.

         I agree 100%,  and the NAM Nest is that model.    It's sometimes a bit too slow in eroding the cold air, but that's better than the GFS and HRRR which wipe it out way too fast.

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