osfan24

Call me crazy, but I think it's too soon to be making declarations like that. 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 wasn't that long ago. 2015-2016 was a crappy winter but we still managed an epic storm. I'm more frustrated than anyone at the lack of snow, but sometimes we go through these stretches around here. It was just hard to remember brutal stretches like this because we were on such a heater there for awhile. Maybe climate change is really impacting our winters, but I think it's too soon to say our last several winters have been poor because of it.

Doesn't look anywhere near as heavy or as stationary as the earlier stuff.

Looks like a bust around these parts. That area of extremely heavy rain just rained itself out. Looks like some good rain forming in Southern MD but heading well east of here.

Practicing for January!

Seems like it is working its way up here but seems to be losing intensity as it does.

It does, but it also doesn't seem to be advancing much north. Seem like it is hitting a wall right now.

Looks like everything is sliding off just to the northeast of us.

Looks like we dodged a bullet here. Nasty storm to my north and another to my south. Just a few flashes and rumbles and some moderate rain.

Nasty-looking bow heading into Clarksburg area.

That thing owes me a lot of snow.

Weird. Rain now just hits a wall at the Potomac. Euro still has rain, but it is drying up a bit as it approaches us so it's not like it isn't picking up on the drying effect the other models seem to show.

Radar and HRRR are both very meh the rest of the night.

NAM now seems focused on tonight only. Really nothing tomorrow but a few early showers.

Line blowing up and sinking south.

Line looks like it isn't moving south very much.

Ha, was just coming here to post that. It's probably wrong, but the NAM looks good for late tonight and tomorrow for being quite active.

Nothing does. Radar, models....

0z NAM looks absolutely nothing like 18z. Swing and a miss. All the heavy convection is wayyyy south and east. Sweet model.

18z NAM drops 2-4 across Central MD.

Given the track of the low, I'm surprised we are not going to see really heavy rain. It seems like the heavy rain is literally within 10 miles or so of the low. It also seems like the heavy rain amounts in general, even in the heaviest pockets, are starting to come down some.

Still a close call for late Saturday/Sunday. Doesn't look like it would take much of a bump north at all for all of us to get doused. The 3K NAM totals are ridiculous in a very small area.

Had some T&L out of nowhere. Was surprised by that since I didn't notice any cells today with any at all. Looks like the heaviest went west of me into Ellicott City area.

6z GFS still looks like a very big rain event for MD.

How's the weekend looking? Still a bunch of big hits?

Main Street seems fine. Sounds like other parts of EC and Catonsville, as well as the city, have considerable flooding.