romba

Recon data will be ingested for 0z?

26 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Is that anything new?  I know nothing about the inner workings of these models, but generally, aren’t models often driven by the same statistical formulas which drive AI?  I always assumed that was the case.  Maybe it’s a marketing thing, calling it AI now?

Probably using the newer AIs to review the models to pick out tendencies or biases, and then compensating. I'd think that weather is still too complicated/not enough sampling yet for this to be too helpful, but who knows if in a few years this really has an effect.

3 hours ago, Dark Star said:

I wonder if you can make a wager on weather forecasts under "Sports Betting" ?

Holy moly you think ppl are pissed at the zoo keeper for poor/under measuring now? 

1 minute ago, mannynyc said:

It's hard not to laugh at this point

There’s a middle finger somewhere in that image

Just now, mikem81 said:

 Either way that’s an absurd ensemble spread this close 

Very true, that’s actually ridiculous 

1 minute ago, Blizzard Hunter said:

Correction from what though? Has any model shown the same solution consistently? 

Not really, but neither have we seen anything close to a hit with any consistency either. Just because there’s no consensus for exactly how it misses NYC proper, doesn’t mean there’s no consensus that it does miss.  Not the greatest logic I’ll admit, but there’s something to it.

4 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

The OP Euro is also on the eastern edge of its own ensemble

OP’s greater resolution hold more weight so close to start time, not sure how useful the ensembles are anymore.

12 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

In other words, the snow would begin in about 36 hours but you are tossing all the global model runs other than the ones from the last 7 hours? I don't agree with that. The weather forecast models over history have notoriously shifted back and forth prior to storm events whether they verified or not. I think it's early and very exaggerated with such a close call to at this point say the NYC proper is "pretty much out of it".

WX/PT

Very fair, but at this juncture I feel that with each passing 6 hours the odds of a significant correction get smaller and smaller. It’s getting late early, to quote the great Yogi.

2 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

RGEM is showing a very different storm than the Euro and GFS. The low is significantly west. Just because it shows rain for the city doesn't mean it is the same storm.

Different path to a similar outcome. I know RGEM has a warm bias but it would take a miracle at this point to get significant snows to the city.

17 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

If you believe the global models yes

Plus RGEM and latest NAM 12k. So basically all the models. RAP and HRRR are still out of range so I wouldn’t put any credence in them, Euro has shifted over to the GFS, which is quite frankly embarrassing. UKIE is useless these days too.

NYC proper is pretty much out of it unless 1-3 inches of slop on street corners after an inch+ of rain is what you’re looking for. 

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nope

Way east

How can the models be this bad 2 days out ?

You can't trust anything 5 days out anymore

Unless they say cutter or OTS for NYC proper, then 0 wavering

Just now, jm1220 said:

Central Park still has a good shot at futility. If this fails which you have to say looks more likely than not at this point it’s an F. I have 7.5” with roughly a 35” seasonal average. Huge F. 

Yea, and the F doesn’t stand for fail

Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

That’s a very broad statement. It’s a big metro area. 

Do I say city and immediate area? Not sure what language to use so everyone doesn’t get needlessly pissed off, thanks.

Metro area lost the CMC

6z Euro running I’m assuming?

Hopefully with all the energy on shore the GFS is the start of a positive 12z suite for us city folks

 Vastly different snow maps- Tidbits 10:1 GFS snow map

versus Pivotal 10:1

2 lows, drawing is back in

4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Do u got the frame prior to this? Please 

3 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I don’t what all the complaining is about. I’ve liked every snow map I’ve seen so far. Not everyone lives in NYC or central Jersey. 

so the nyc ppl should be happy for you and you should then likewise be upset for them.

ofc everyone cares abt their back yard and will voice their opinions based on that. PBPs should be unbiased (good for interior, poor for city verbatim etc.) but opinions on models runs after that are just that- opinions.

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Theoretically on the Euro, most of this subforum sees 12+ hours of sleet or mixed precip which would cut down on totals along the coast.

Doubt that happens in reality.

We would be under the "death band" for a good 6-12 hours and even though surface temps would be 2-3 degrees above freezing I do believe it would accumulate.

Don't models generally account for that or do they just spit out mix or sleet if the surface is above freezing even if all other layers are below?

6 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

wait - the euro gives me 18 to 21?  HOLY SHIT

yea me too, don't buy it though that map is wayyyy overdone imo. Cut in half, and then half again is probably more realistic imby in NENJ on that run lol

This:

Vs same run on pivotal

Let's not get out hopes too high off of one crazy weenie map, I think the pivotal is more realistic here

Compared to 0z Euro is, so far, east and 10 mb weaker

Edit: Next frame hr 84 in roughly the same spot but 7mb weaker