Chris78

I'm sitting at 54 right now in Smithsburg. Definitely a chill in the air compared to earlier this afternoon.

If you believe the Nam northern MD gets a pretty good period of moderate sleet tomorrow late evening into the overnight hours.

I shouldn't have any problem accumulating zr at 31 degrees after 70s today right?

That's a Hella sleet storm in the Catoctins

Definitely a D for my Yard. I'm in Washington County about 3 miles from the M/D line. 12" on the season. Average is about 28" The only reason I dont give an F is because I did have a 6" storm back in the middle of January. Was totally whiffed on the Jan. 3rd. Nickled and Dimmed my way to 12"

I know DC proper and even the close in burbs will be mostly rain but what the euro showed for our area is an eye brow raiser. That's a significant ice storm on the euro for the far N+W. 1"+ QPF with temps below freezing for my yard. I've been very dismissive of what the GFS has shown but man the Euro also showing it now makes things more interesting.

Now this has my attention. This isn't the gfs cold bias. That would be a disaster for M/D line

@Ji isn't wrong. Everytime we need a trend in one direction we ussually get the opposite. Atleast this winter. It actully makes me chuckle thinking about it lol. Look at this week. We need a south trend for Thursday/Friday. We get a north trend. For Sunday we need a north trend and we have the Hammer from hell dropping out of Canada at the worst possible time. It is really is something to marvel at.

Anyone else having issues with TT?

GFS OP really juicey just south of us. Get the Northern stream to back off just a bit and we'd be in business.

That's not a bad look 6 days out.

Icon sucks. It moved towards the GFS at h5. Northern sw is more out in front crushing heights.

Or there wouldn't be any northern sw at all pressing down over the top

What's really frustrating is when we watch areas north of us get crushed on Thursday/Friday and then watch the wave get crushed south of us on Sunday.

Don't know if it's a Nina thing but I think this Is always a concern with no nao help.

Last 5 runs of the GFS has higher heights from the previous. Give it another day and it will look like other guidance.

The northern stream still comes down and crushes everything including our dreams lol. That northern stream piece needs to change If we have any hope of something gaining latitude.

The ICON sucks but it looked to be setting up something good at the end of the run. Real nice look for the Sunday /Monday deal

Much better shape than me. 12" on the season. Average is about 28 Gonna be a dud of a winter for my area unless we get something more significant in the next 4 weeks.

I see how this is going down. Wont be any bunnies left in Smithsburg

Just looked at last night's euro a little closer. Our best shot at Snow/frozen is probably with that front runner piece for earlier on Thursday.

With how the GFS performed last weekend and with the non ice storm a couple weeks ago it definitely gives me pause for next Friday . He'll the GFS had a major ice storm for my area less than 48 hours prior to the start of the event In regards to the ice storm that never happened a few weeks back. I know the Euro does have some front end ice and my area can do better with those west tracking systems into CAD. With the GFS bias of pushing cold to far south I'm just skeptical. On the other hand it does look pretty good north of us in regards to cold. Hope I'm dead wrong and we all get smoked.

Nothing to hold it in place. Wish I could believe the gfs. Cmc isn't really close to frozen and neither was the 12z euro. Gfs cold bias at Play most likely. Hope I'm dead wrong.

Definitely looks like a legit chance at Frozen by the end of next week. Canadian gets snow into the area by next Friday and the GFS is trending colder with lower heights.

Canadian gets snow into the area next Friday.