Chris78

12/4 - .50"

Something in between the 06z and 12z would probably get the subforum on the board with a 1 - 3/ 2-4 " event before a changeover. Most would probably be happy with that. Except for @Ji lol.

I prefer the control run of the euro for the day 8 -10.

Eyeballed about .5 in Smithsburg MD. (10 minutes from Hagerstown)

Hadnt really been paying attention but yea lets hope its right. Bulleyes our area and snows pretty good for a couple of hours.

Definitely. Leaving work in Hanover PA and only 35 degrees. Its colder now then it was this morning on the way in

Icon gives the area around .5 qpf from the ULL. Its just a tad to warm. Mid 30's to around 40 for most.

I wouldn't count out getting some snow from the upper level low/wrap around from the coastal low. Looking at the individual members of the eps theres over a dozen that get snows from the coastel low into central and northeastern md and even more that gets good snows into southern/eastern pa.

The canadian has snow from the upper level low/wrap around from the coastal across Pa and into MD. Definitely trended south from its 12z run

Nice jump south on the 18z GEFS. You can see the difference compared to 12z.

Yep. HH delivers a huge snow storm for just north of us and up the coast. Get that redevelopment a couple hundted miles south and were in business.

@C.A.P.E. I was just going to say the GEFS looks better than the OP. Not great but not the disaster the OP would be at day 15 lol Edit - Lol. C.a.p.e beat me to it.

Yep. We've seen this before. Cold/dry ,warm/wet.

Quite a cold dump into the east the first week of December.

Lots of red and blues in the right places.

Its been so long sometimes I think we forget what a legit - nao block can do lol. After the disaster of the long range models/ weeklies of last year ,Ive learned a lesson on not to put alot of faith in guidance of the overall pattern past about 2 weeks. Generally it seems like persistance wins out and patterns always take longer to flip than first advertised. It was pretty amazing that week after week thr Euro weeklies showed a great pattern developing and it just never materilized. Im also a big believer that luck and randomness play a big part in our snow totals lol

At some point were due for a - nao Dec/Jan/Feb. Its been several years. I would say the WD index is pretty high lol.

Cmc lol

BWI : 19.7 DCA: 14.9 IAD: 24.3 RIC : 11.1 Tie Breaker SBY : 12.8 MBY : 29.7

@NorthArlington101 GFS has been hinting around the 9th - 10th for a while now.its has cold chasing moisture around that time frame. Not out of the question that some areas could see some flakes towards the middle of the month. Heck- I had 7 inches last November 15th.

Picked up another .5 over the past hour. Up to 3.75 for storm total. Snow winding down now.

9pm update - 3.25" Back edge approaching.

I guess you haven't looked at the gfs/fv3 for friday.

8pm measurement- 3" Picked up 1" in the last hour

I'm sure the catoctins got hit hard today