Fozz

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Ill take the ggem long range and call it a winter...till February

That's a very long duration MECS at the 7-9 day range... a Thursday evening to Saturday morning event.

7 minutes ago, nj2va said:

In true mid-atl forum fashion, its every weenie for themselves and I’m now only paying attention to the western area/mountains.  

but in all seriousness, would like to see the thump/sleet/ice/dry slot scenario for dc and no rain for the 95 corridor.  

You aren't the only one.

2 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

It looks pretty bad here but the Carolinas always seem to get the worst ice storms.

I don’t usually like sleet but I had a lot of fun with it in Feb 07. It was so glossed up that you could just glide on the ground.

1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Whatever it's worth (yeah not much perhaps!!), the Icon shows "rain" at 105 around the DC metro but looking at its surface temperature it is below freezing DC and north.  So sleet/ice then?  Similarly at 108.  Here's the 2-m temps at 105:

As far as I know, the ICON reads every non-snow precip type as "rain". 

So what they depict as "rain" may very well be a wintry mix.

Is Feb 2014 the only recent KU storm in which so many people have faulty memories? I don’t understand… we remember all the other big ones so well.

2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

I was referring to the individual members on the screengrabs where it displays all their perceived outcomes.. I do agree that for a mean it would be a bit more tricky.

It's already a lower resolution run, so calculating a Kuchera ratio is based on a level of detail and precision that doesn't make sense for ensembles.

The point of the ensembles is to show the big picture, especially more than a few days away when things are too uncertain to rely on just the operational run.

1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Can anyone with more knowledge answer why WxBell does not display GEFS members with the option of kuchera? Is it a resolution thing, or is it just purely a decision they made. Curious as hell. 

The GEFS mean is a composite of 30 different simulations. It would be very messy and not practical at all to try speculating on the exact ratio of the snow from an average of 30 different versions of a run. 

Just now, mappy said:

How do you know that’s even snowfall? Let alone what the colors actually mean 

Famartin posted a bunch of those maps on his site. This one has the proper legend.

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/NJSnow-03Mar94.png

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/03-Mar-94.html

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

That week still doesnt break 2016 for me. Of course we got kind of screwed with the second noreaster out here (Only 4-6). I know a lot of you like multiple events. And I do as well. But I dont think I will ever see 40 inches from a single storm again in my lifetime. 

I can't blame you. I think most of us consider a HECS to be anything over 20", but to get twice as much is just ungodly. Not many people outside a mountain or LES snow belt will ever see a 40" storm in their backyard.

8 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

2010 we had 30 inches followed by 14 inches in like 5 days. And that was following a 5-6-inch appetizer 48 hours earlier. Craziest week of weather in my life.

25 + 20 inches here. 

I can't imagine beating that stretch, ever. 

Just now, HighStakes said:

Did you move back to Cockeysville?

Yup, I've been going back and forth for a while but I moved back officially right after Christmas. Remote work can do that.

Just now, Ji said:

amped lives in FDK and gave up on the storm?

Looks like he's in Columbia now.

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, this will be my last post on this topic. I shouldn't even have started it. I already said this stuff last year. Personally, I absolutely love a good melt or epic rant... but only when it's appropriate for where we are. When I melt you can be assured it was a short term shift to disaster. Not 5 days out from am extremely complicated setup. Rants and melts should be saved for the highest impact timing. Not every 6 hours far beyond the range of a storm being real. Lol

I liked Jebman's melt in 2015. That was amazing.

Maybe a March 2001 rug pull is worth a similar rant. But not something like this. That is just petty.

Just now, Snowmadness said:

Along time lurker here, can someone tell me why the operational model is so different than the ensembles? I thought OP was a blend of all the ensembles.  18z OP certainly doesn’t look like a blend.  Almost all ensembles have low off the coast?? 

No. The OP is not a blend at all. The OP is the operational run that is run at a higher resolution. The ensembles are different variations of the run at lower resolutions, to depict different scenarios under various tweaked conditions. The ensemble mean is the blend of all ensembles.

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Seriously though, it looks like the difference from 12z is like 25 miles??? Not sure why the reaction is this.

Probably because people feel that there's no going back to a further east track. I'd still give it until Thursday or Friday.

4 minutes ago, snowfan said:

That wouldn't be a surprise at all. 

Maybe, but I'm skeptical. More often than not I've seen the models overdo the scouring out of cold air. But this is a potent system with an overhead track as depicted so who knows?

GFS has southern MD surface go from 20°F to 50 in the span of 18 hours. I find that a bit hard to believe.

2 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said:

I know certain models are more reliable than others but you gotta laugh when someone says just ignore it, mostly because it shows something they don't want to see lol.

-RSC

Honestly I'd also ignore the ICON if it was the only one that showed a big storm. 

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I see some posts people talking about red flags. Here's your red flag... when the NAVGEM is by itself and east, something is up. Just my $.02......I've seen this before.

That is one hell of a blizzard for SNE.

40 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Let me know - happy to meet up for a beer.

I actually don't drink, but I'd be happy to meet up if I head out that way.

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Sooooooo. The 12z CIPS analogs are out......

The top two analogs with regards to the 500mb height pattern at 132 hrs out are:

1/26/2011

2/13/2014 

Lead up at 120 hrs out number one analog......

2/10/1983 

 

This doesn't mean we can expect those exact results, but it does show what type of pattern and setup we are heading into these next 5-7 days. Remarkable swing these last 18 hrs.

 

The one thing those three storms had in common was the amazing rates and dynamics, including the widespread thundersnow. I remember seeing that flash of lightning at Millersville back in Feb 2014.

40 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I'll be in McHenry this weekend...Euro made me giddy. 

I might also head to Deep Creek if this storm cuts too far west. I haven't been to Wisp in a while.

4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

It's all about the storm and expectations. If there is a big coastal storm, yes, I'm going to be mad if I get 6 inches immediately washed away as the snow turns over to rain. 

But if It's a clipper or something and I'm getting 1-3 or 2-4, that's awesome. Or just a quick moving wave that lays down a nice 3-6/4-8, great!

You only get so many chances in life to experience a HECS. And there are only so many opportunities to get one, so when the chance comes along, you don't want to swing and miss.

I don't think you or I have much to worry with the snow being washed away. I don't see that happening. Sleet is in play, maybe also zr, but I don't think it will even be a major ice storm.

1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

Sucks for DC metro, but just a stunning historical storm on the Euro.  Snowfall from Alabama/Georgia all the way up the Apps.
 

 

Looks a lot like a March 1993 lite.