Fozz

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

then 95-96 after 94-95.....2003-04 after 2002-03.... 73-74 wasnt awful.....

How did 2016-17 end up so atrocious?

1 minute ago, pazzo83 said:

it's representative of the million people who live in DC/Arlington/Alexandria, with some minor variation.  It's not supposed to represent some way out suburb.  We had these same arguments in the NYC forum where folks in like way out NW NJ were pissed at Central Park's climate record/obs/whatever.  Well ok, it's the climate site for NYC not your random suburb.  Sorry.

Yes it is representative of most people who live inside the beltway, though even there DCA seems to be on the lower end of the range.

But that’s very different from representing the entire DC/Baltimore metro area. Especially when even people east of the fall line say that it doesn’t reflect their winter climate.

Mdecoy just needs to wait a few weeks then he won’t have to go very far to chase.

2 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Then who's data has been deemed acceptable for the subforum - can you provide it?

I think BWI and even IAD are much more representative of the region.

2 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I mean yeah, no duh areas north and west get more snow and later.  But DC is the largest city central to this subforum and has good historical data so that's what I look at.  If I'm looking for a 5" snow then ok, March is in the game...but a MECS or HECs...historically the odds are basically zilch.  

DCA is not representative of this region and should not be used to generalize the winter climo of the whole area. It has good data but it’s a very warm spot at zero elevation on a river in the center of a heat island.

14 minutes ago, IronTy said:

There has been a number of posts about how we're still in the game well into March in this thread.  So I went and looked at historical snow totals at DCA by month.  According the the data I saw, we've only gotten double-digit snow totals for the entire month of March twice in recent eras.  Once I think was 2014, and before that it was either was like 1959 or 1969 or somewhere there about.  So I don't get where the March optimism comes from.  

The March optimism comes from the longwave pattern that is projected all the way until at least mid-March.

DCA averages around 12” for the whole season, so it will really take a lot to get nearly a whole season worth of snow in just the last 2-3 weeks of it being realistically possible to snow.

Also, places north and west of DCA do a lot better in March than DCA does. IAD has had many more double digit March totals than DCA since 1960. If you’re in the coastal plain then you might need to temper your March expectations but even then the first half of the month can still work.

Just now, Ji said:

Giving psu Feb 2003 vibes

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk

Yeah I didn't want to say it but if everything goes our way this could be an appetizer for something bigger down the line.

GFS is showing a possible signal for the week of Feb 5th. 

ETA: looks like a suppressed southern slider. Probably worth keeping an eye on that window.

Weeklies are showing a very strong signal for the VDay to PD period, especially with such strong mean height anomalies 3 weeks out. Also could be a 50/50 low. Everything looks locked and loaded.

If this turns out the way the Euro weeklies are advertising, then a 30”+ season for the cities should easily be in play. Maybe 40+ if we get a HECS.

21 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

 

 

The Euro weeklies then lock the good pattern in from the second week of February through early March.

 

•  

Seems like the weeklies just lock a very stable eastern trough and Greenland block throughout the whole run.

Can it be trusted that far out, or is it simply projecting based on Nino climo?

While we're on this topic, here are some other spots and their snowpack records.

Millers, MD from the late 80s to today (not far from psuhoffman, but lower elevation)

BWI from 1950 to today

IAD from 1960 to today

https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

Seems like for the cities and close suburbs, the ceiling is 3-4 weeks. But if you're further N or W, you could get a much longer run under the right conditions. 

12 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I have a hand written winter weather diary from 1965  until I stopped in 2015.

i would like to publish it maybe or find some way to share copies of it.  There are some staggering hourlies that we just rarely have put together in last 25 years. 
 

One  excetpt  from Blizzard  of 66 is “…19 degrees ant 2  and just snowed 3” in last 2 hours so up to 10” and dad says radio said winds are 40 mph. I can’t see dad standing by the lamppost…”

You should publish it. Maybe get a PDF scan, and then upload it online.

29 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I am shocked 2014 isn’t on this list. I know it’s for DC, but 2014 to me was just an incredible winter between the constant light to moderate snowstorms and incredible cold. Even 2015 seems like it could make a run at that list.

2014 had a very sharp gradient between those who had an epic, historic winter, and those who missed out until the very late part of the season. But in the favored areas it was absolutely incredible. That's probably why.

Also that list only counts consecutive days of snowpack, so if there are any small breaks before the next storm it ends the streak. 

1 hour ago, mappy said:

It was fantastic! I could def live with getting 70" every winter hahaha

It was one of my favorites. Probably the closest we’ll ever get to a wall to wall winter.

7 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Like one. But we were unlucky, and we still got a HECS, which we still could get! But that isn’t relevant to the point I am making, which has nothing to do with whether or not I think this season will end up great or a dud or anywhere in between.

My point was that I am confused that some posters seem to think reaching climo in a Nino is good and it’s not. If we swing and miss on Nino’s, or even if we end up reaching climo in them, your average seasonal snowfall is going to be basically cut in half. And yes, sometimes a Nino doesn’t work out and you get screwed. But you don’t want that becoming a pattern. So let’s say BWI averages 20 a year and reaches 20 this year. Some people will think that’s great. It’s actually pretty bad and if it continues, BWI’s real average is going to drop to like 10 inches a year. Might even be less than that. Congrats, you are now Charlotte!

2009-2010 was amazing. I’d love to see it again even though it was once in a lifetime. But we don’t need 2009-2010 to have a successful Nino. No one is saying we need 100 inches of snow. But do we need something like 2003? Yeah, we do.

2002-03 was the third snowiest winter on record in Baltimore, going back over 130 years. And second snowiest until 2010. On top of that it was the 8th coldest winter on record.

Expecting every moderate or borderline strong El Niño to be like 2003 is incredibly unrealistic.

17 minutes ago, mappy said:

IMO is should snow like 2013/2014 every winter. 

Your first winter in Parkton, and everyone thought it was Jay Peak 

9 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Go look at the epic 09/10 winter and tell us how many weeks we actually had accumulating snow. 

I counted 5 weeks

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

 

Amazingly, neither of you seem to know where you live. We are just coming out of a 10 day period of legit winter that produced a moderate amount of snow in the lowlands. If we get another 10-14 days with a pattern that can deliver below avg temps with a favorable storm track, that is a pretty typical winter at this latitude outside of the western highlands and PSU land.

Also a reminder- These sort of posts belong in the Panic Room thread.

I think Ji averages 2/3 of what psuhoffman gets

13 hours ago, nj2va said:

Definitely an over performer. Estimating 15-18”+. Epic month of January for the mountains.

Light upslope snow and 7 degrees.

Thats amazing, hope you enjoyed! I would’ve loved to ski out there if it was maybe 15 degrees warmer.

11 hours ago, anotherman said:

Anyone else think this week reminded them of February 2010 on a smaller scale?

Not at all. More like Feb 2015 on a smaller scale. Or even December 2013. Fun times, but nothing like like 2010.

1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

Hold up. That map has FDK at over 6” with that storm. What the hell am I missing? There is no damn way I got that much snow. The radar even indicated we missed the best banding. I call significant BS on that. Unless this is both storms combined…then it would be low-balling. I’m beyond confused right now 

I also question that 6.8” in the Hereford area of Baltimore county. That can’t be right. Probably measured the snow depth.

10 minutes ago, ThePhotoGuy said:

Any reports from the snow streamer in Baltimore County? Hopefully it holds up for Northern Anne Arundel. 

Here here! 

Looks like it’s finally wrapping up but it was awesome while it lasted.

Picked up a quick 0.4” which leaves me with the same exact total as the previous event - 4.4”

4 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Finally getting in on the action!

Looks like a snow globe again

Seriously these are the best rates and flake size of the day

Finally getting in on the action!

Looks like a snow globe again

2 minutes ago, notvirga! said:

I use the MD roads app for iOS 

Thanks, that's actually perfect. Found exactly what I was looking for.