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ILSNOW

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    Winter 2022/23 Banter Hangout

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Looking forward to our 72 hour cold snap in late March/early April when we get 4-6 inches of wet snow that only accumulates on the grass and then melts 3 hours later. Got 5 inches on Saturday and saw snow during the day for first time in a long time.

     

    this winter suxs!!!!

    • Haha 2
    • Sad 1

    Jan 28-29th Baroclinic Rider

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Chicago NWS upped amounts for the northern tier but still under WWA 

    URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
1049 AM CST Sat Jan 28 2023

ILZ003>006-290100-
/O.CON.KLOT.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-230129T0900Z/
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-
Including the cities of Rockford, Belvidere, Crystal Lake,
Algonquin, McHenry, Woodstock, Waukegan, Buffalo Grove,
Mundelein, and Gurnee
1049 AM CST Sat Jan 28 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Accumulating snow, heavy at times, and hazardous travel
  expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches.
    • Like 1

    Midwest/Ohio Valley/Great Lakes Snow January 24-26

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

     

      

    URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
213 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2023

ILZ006-013-103-104-250415-
/O.EXB.KLOT.WW.Y.0001.230125T0900Z-230126T0300Z/
Lake IL-DuPage-Northern Cook-Central Cook-
Including the cities of Waukegan, Buffalo Grove, Mundelein,
Gurnee, Naperville, Wheaton, Downers Grove, Lombard,
Carol Stream, Evanston, Des Plaines, Schaumburg, Palatine,
Northbrook, Chicago, Cicero, Oak Lawn, Oak Park, and La Grange
213 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Slippery travel due to falling snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 2 to 4 inches expected.

* WHERE...Lake IL, DuPage, Northern Cook and Central Cook
  Counties.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 9 PM CST Wednesday.

    Jan 19-20: Hoosier is not allowed to start this thread

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Ricky 

    While this system is at a range (around day 5) in which fairly
large run to run variability is common, the 12z 1/14 global
operational models were in pretty good agreement in the big
picture details of the synoptic pattern and the entire area seeing
precipitation starting Wednesday night into early Thursday. Since
a distinct majority of ensemble members also indicate a favorable
storm track to spread precip. across the area, continue to feel
comfortable with the likely PoPs offered by the NBM.

A strong enough synoptic system (which is currently favored at
this vantage point), in addition to good large scale ascent, can
be expected to draw a plume of well above normal PWATs northward.
Thus regardless of precipitation type, a solid precip. producer
for this time of year remains in the offing. The antecedent air
mass will be marginally but sufficiently cold for wet snow,
particularly for locales near and north of I-80. The exact track
and strength of the low will determine how much of the area will
see accumulating snow, with overall probabilities higher the farther
north you go per most recent model and ensemble member and mean
progs. The high PWATs and mixing ratios, plus the aforementioned
strong large scale forcing are a concern for moderate to heavy
snow rates.

In summary, the threat for impactful winter weather in the form
of heavy/wet accumulating snow for at least portions of the area
has continued to tick upward, again with important caveats of this
being about 5 days out. Stay tuned to later forecast updates for
the Wednesday night-Thursday period. A colder (though not
exceptionally cold for late January) and active pattern looks to
continue heading into late January per solid ensemble consistency
out in the medium-long range.
    • Like 3

    Pre-Christmas (Dec 21-23rd) Winter Storm

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Chicago NWS Izzi 

    Issued at 305 PM CST Mon Dec 19 2022

    Blizzard expected Thursday night into Friday...

    Wednesday through Monday...

* Travel impacts expected to begin Thursday, mainly western CWA
* Rapidly deteriorating conditions Thursday evening as a ferocious
  arctic front rips across the area resulting in temperatures
  rapidly falling through the teens into the single digits
* Blizzard conditions will develop Thursday night, especially
  late, and continue through the day Friday
* Bitterly cold wind chills expected during the height of the
  storm, posing a significant threat to life for anyone who
  becomes stranded in the storm

After extensive collaboration with WPC and neighboring offices,
have opted to hoist a long lead time winter storm watch for
blizzard conditions Thursday night through Friday night.

Models and their respective ensembles have remained locked into
solutions depicting rapid cyclogenesis Thursday into Friday as
the cyclone tracks from southern IL to lower Michigan. Various
models depict explosive deepening of this low with central
pressure dropping 25-35mb in 24 hours. This type of explosive
intensification is quite rare in this region and is expected to
result in extremely powerful and potentially damaging winds late
Thursday night and especially Friday.

The deformation band with this cyclone is expected to be quite
intense owing to the extremely strong omega and weak static
stability/slantwise instability. Very steep mid-upper level lapse
rates do raise concerns about the potential for thundersnow even
later Thursday night into Friday morning. Expecting snow to liquid
ratios to average around 15:1, possibly 20:1 western CWA where DGZ
will be deeper. The one factor that *should* keep the snow:liquid
ratios somewhat in check is the very strong winds which would tend
to rip about the larger/fluffier dendrites.

Have seen some general downward trend in QPF values over the past
24 hours in guidance, but QPF generally still supports widespread
6" totals with even 1-2 foot totals possible associated with any
more intense banding/possible thundersnow. We are still very far
out and not planning to advertise snowfall amounts in public
products at this time, as much could change between now and then.
It is also worth stressing that the amount of snow that falls is
a secondary or tertiary concern among the hazards. The expected
temperatures will leave this snow extremely susceptible to blowing
around and even if only a couple inches of snow falls, a blizzard
would still be likely given the nature of the snow and magnitude
of the strong winds. This is one of the reasons for the early
winter storm watch.

Impactful winter weather, in the form of accumulating snow is
expected to begin in the western portions of the CWA during the
day Thursday. However, opted not to include this portion of the
storm in the winter storm watch as the threat level of this snow
will dwarf what will be expected during the blizzard portion of
the storm.

If current guidance is close to verifying, then conditions Friday
could rival the 2011 Groundhog Day blizzard, particularly in open
areas. Travel would become extremely dangerous and life
threatening, particularly in light of the bitterly cold
temperatures during the height of the storm.

Falling snow is expected to end Friday afternoon or evening, but
strong winds and blizzard conditions are expected to continue
Friday evening and only slowly abate through the night. Some
blowing snow will likely continue into Saturday with bitterly cold
temperatures through the holiday weekend.

- Izzi

     

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