ILSNOW

Just now, A-L-E-K said:

Dumpster fire model

I agree the GEM is a dumpster fire model.

Long live the King (GFS)

 12z GFS if only (prolly an MSP special)

and the GEM which is slightly different

GFS on its own chance of verifying 0.000000001

Now ?? 

6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

32/30 with moderate freezing rain at Waukegan.  Mentioned it yesterday but that has been one of my prime areas of interest in the LOT cwa.  You know areas farther inland in far northern IL have a better shot to hold at or below freezing throughout, but can those areas closer to the lake hold on to freezing temps as the afternoon wears on and how much icing will there be?

32/30 here in Buffalo Grove with light freezing rain trees are icing up quickly

0z NAM is ugly 

18z Euro FRAM

KLOT discussion by RC

KLOT went with Winter Weather Advisory

ILZ003>006-220500-
/O.NEW.KLOT.WW.Y.0005.230222T1200Z-230223T1200Z/
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-
Including the cities of Rockford, Belvidere, Crystal Lake,
Algonquin, McHenry, Woodstock, Waukegan, Buffalo Grove,
Mundelein, and Gurnee
300 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM
CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain and sleet expected. Total ice accumulations
  of two to three tenths of an inch with locally higher possible
  near the state line, while total sleet accumulations up to one
  half inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Winnebago, Boone, McHenry and Lake IL Counties.

18z NAM FRAM 9with 2m temps in Northern Chicagoland hovering around 32 those ice #'s below are hard to believe)

1 minute ago, Natester said:

DVN pulled the trigger for an Ice Storm Warning for the row of counties just to my north.  Winter Weather Advisory here.

Milwaukee Ice Storm Warning doe SE Wisc

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of a
  quarter to one half of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 40
  mph.

LOT aviation

A sharp temperature gradient will be present across the region
tomorrow. Temperatures at most of our TAF sites are expected to
remain above freezing throughout the day tomorrow, which will mean
that the only precipitation that will be seen at these sites
should be a cold, soaking rainfall. RFD, however, may be an
exception to this as surface temperatures may end up being just
below freezing during at least part of the day there. With a deep
layer of above freezing air aloft likely to melt all hydrometeors
prior to them reaching the surface, the below freezing temperatures
at ground level should thus support a period of freezing rain at
RFD tomorrow, though exactly how long this period will last and
how efficiently ice will accrete on various surfaces remains
uncertain due to surface temperatures teetering precariously close
to 32 degrees Fahrenheit and the expected heavier rainfall rates.
Some model guidance is also suggesting that ORD may end up right
on the fringes of the accumulating freezing rain footprint, but
currently think that temperatures at ORD will remain just above
freezing and result in the freezing rain remaining just north of
the ORD airfield.

14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

From my perspective, Lake county IL near the lakeshore is one of the more interesting/tricky calls in the LOT cwa.  Will they be cold enough for ice?  Will they be cold enough for significant ice?

I think there will be a zone somewhere around there, and/or up through Racine/Kenosha that will be cold enough for significant ice.  It may be where 925 mb temps are hanging out around -3 or -4, so not really cold enough for much sleet but cold enough to offset the warmer than average lake temps.  

Gotta believe that LOT goes Winter Storm watch for counties adjacent to Wisconsin with Winter weather advisory of Lake Co IL.

12z Euro agrees

I know that it prolly means nothing but lets welcome the 12z NAM to the cold side

28 minutes ago, bowtie` said:

I never did understand that. The equinox and solstice are where it is at. Earth-Sun relationship for the win.

My question is when does winter start?

4 minutes ago, Natester said:

Can you post the 2m temp map at 21z Wednesday time?

18z Euro ice

12z Euro slightly warmer and cuts ice totals in chicago area in 1/2

Hoping this is wrong as RC pointed out the model has fake snow on the ground which should/will affect the temps.

GFS remains icy

18z Euro ice

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Can you post the FRAM version?

why is there a big difference between the 2 ?

scary ice numbers over Michigan

6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

That sounding says valid next Saturday?

corrected

corrected to read 84 hrs

agree here is the sounding for the area that it paints 8 inches of snow (soundings indicate freezing rain)