Discussion
The ongoing settling of cold surface high pressure and additional
surges in the wake of the historic winter storm will maintain
dangerously cold temperatures for the central and eastern U.S. well
into next week as per the Climate Prediction Center. The airmass
may be more prolonged in areas with widespread snow/ice coverage
and enhanced radiational cooling. Amplified mean troughing aloft
will meanwhile bring rounds of weak to moderate clipper system
snows from the north-central U.S. to the Great Lakes.
In this anomalously cold pattern, there is potential for wintry
precipitation into the Gulf Coast states late week as upper trough
translation leads into northern Gulf frontal wave genesis. Wave
progression downstream and trough/closed low development aloft is
now increasingly likely to set the environment to produce a
significant Eastern Seaboard Coastal Winter storm expected to
rapidly deepen while lifting over the western Atlantic off the
Southeast Saturday and Mid-Atlantic/New England Sunday. Uncertainty
has improved but remains with the exact track of the low which
impacts the onshore wintry precipitation focus and footprint.
However,
the growing consensus at this time is for heavy snow potential
from the eastern Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic through coastal southern
New England. The forecast strength of the deep low suggests high
winds/waves and coastal flooding would also be expected.