Silas Lang

10 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

1000% agree....good example is the 01z HRRR, apparently inhaled some of the crack fumes from the 0z NAM for mby

Yes, pretty similar! I know they don't offer a whole not now, but it is encouraging that the trends are going up as opposed to down for sure. Seems like opposite is more of the norm. 

The lastest nam looked like an improvement for eastern areas. Less downsloping and a slightly quicker changeover. 

Got clouds moving in multiple directions here in Knox. High clouds from west to east and low clouds moving from south to north and even some coming from  southeast to northwest. I don't know what that means or if it means anything in regards to this system, but thought I would share this observation. Pretty odd looking up at the sky right now. Hope everyone stays safe! 

2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Nail. On. The. Head. I was thinking yesterday that we have had a clown map to look at almost every week this winter. As soon one marginal mess scoots out, the digital jinn whip up a new mid range threat that has ping-ponged back and forth over the course of 7 - 10 days, to what you said above. It seems like the past few winters we get maybe two periods like that. Usually one in early December and another somewhere later. This winter it has just been one after another. I guess NAOs let us live in interesting times (I'm fully ready for this statement to be bookmarked when I start blabbering on about the Pacific). But "interesting times" can be a curse, lol. I feel like (speaking only for myself) that I just need a recharge for a couple of weeks, and I think that also speaks to Big Bald's point above. Just 2 days of sun have done wonders for my interest in the storm. It's doubled from 0.05% to 0.10%.

 

 

I would 100% buy what the Euro and GFS are selling for next week, if it was actually for sale. Maybe I have reverse jinxed us now! 

Gonna stick my neck out and say EPS member 38 is where this one is going to end up:

 

I'm using the traditional "the map will look like how my yard looked after 6 hours of rain on 2 inches of snow" forecasting method. 

 

 

I am with you and Stove on this one. If it keeps showing a storm, I am gonna expect a sloppy dusting until the ground shows otherwise. 

This year: 

It's been a fairly average winter here in Knoxville. Got about 4 inches at Christmas, 1 last night and a handful of Dustings. Probably puts us pretty close to seasonal average. But way better in comparison to past couple years for sure!

Could the tennis and ping ponging on models be due to struggling to recognize p-types? 

3 minutes ago, Jed33 said:

I remember several years back (would have to look back through the threads here, but it’s here somewhere)  where a front end thump was looking to change to rain but it just never did in the eastern valley. In the foothills and mtns it warmed up to nearly 50 degrees, however it stayed in the 20’s to around 30 in the valley and stayed snow the whole time! Ended up with 5.5in at the house and I know some places just north had over a foot! That was about as strange of a situation we could ever expect around here. The thinking was that somehow there was a cold pool aloft over the valley and that the warm nose hit the mtns and just never was able to penetrate back to the west. Extremely rare system indeed. 

I think I remember that. I was in JC and it was like 50 degrees but up near Kingsport they had snow. It was like a super heated line up the spine of the Apps and the foothills immediate to them. My parents in Anderson county had a few inches and Knox saw snow. It was almost like a mini cad event in the valley. Cold air banked up against the plateau. It was a odd storm. I remember it vividly because I was pissed at getting blanked. LOL 

21 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

12z hrr good amounts in valley

My goodness, if that verifies and it then rains a bunch it is gonna be a mess. 

17 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

Knox County schools going virtual when we'll get jack diddly squat of frozen.  

Maybe for the potential flash freeze? It is pretty wet. Don't know if the wind will dry it up before the cold though. 

Was sprinkling here at the house at 33. Some stations at 32 here in the valley. 

GFS looks like the cold air is a little further east. Starting to creep into the valley on Tuesday morning. 

Is there any chance that ice could fall as sleet, snow, or mix? Anything else is better than ice. Or any chance it could cut north? Would rather a cutter than ice. 

Kind of nervous about temps here in the valley and dry slotting. Not really feeling it to be honest. Seems any time I have to worry about that it means some snow TV and a patchy dusting at best. I would love to be wrong but climatology usually wins at the end of the day. Mountains and plateau will get theirs. 

Is this even nwf or is it coming more from North/northeast? Winds here are NNE. 

Getting snow real tiny flakes now but sticking again at 32. 

Sleet, snow, and chunks of ice falling from the sky. Crazy how some of it is clumping up as it falls. Already coated everything and out performed the last 2 "events" here. 

Woke up to a dusting here in Knox. Some fine dandruff falling right now at a steady clip. 

45 minutes ago, John1122 said:

It certainly can't hurt. It's 35 here currently, even the valley areas are in the upper 30s. Oak Ridge is 39 though they were predicted to hit 47 today.

Yeah, was colder than news stations were showing at my house this morning. My weather station was at a frosty 24 in Knox. Ground should be pretty cold with little sun today as well. 

While not a lot of direct hits persay, the pattern is ripe looking at the models. I like where we are. Much better to be where we are when the inevitable NW trends set in. 

Regardless, feels like we are playing with house money after the Christmas snow.

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Great catch.  You can see it on the 500 vort map.  Never would have noticed it on the 3k NAM.  

Yeah upon closer inspection it looks like the 500 vortex map correlates with what is happening on the low cloud fraction map, with some clouds crashing against the mountains. 

Noticed this in MRX discussion:

Another spoke of cold air aloft rotates across the area during
the afternoon Christmas Day. Scattered snow showers and/or flurries
expected across southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. An
additional light accumulations possible, generally less than 1/2
inch.

This is separate from the banding depicted on the models after the main moisture pulls away, correct? 

3k Nam wanting to bump up Knoxville to warning category. 

Hey everyone, been a while and I don't post a whole lot but I am now living in the Knoxville area after living in Asheville for a few years. I posted somewhat infrequently when I lived in Johnson City several years before AVL.  Anyway, just wanted to say hello! I appreciate this forum and I am looking forward to posting some obs. Hopefully this Friday. 

28 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Going to be interesting...hires models continue to be overdoing the surface temps in the eastern valley

Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
 

Yeah, at my house it is 35 but the models don't seem to have me getting there for another 4 or 5 hours. 

In Swannanoa my truck was covered in ice from sleet/rain/snow mix when I got off work. Just rain here in South Asheville.