Silas Lang

One thing about the mid to long range is that nothing is locked in place. I was just flipping through the past few runs and they all look drastically different. 

24 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

A stronger/amped up low pressure would pull it NW


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Thanks! This may be a dumb question, but are there any factors that could lead to more amplification of a low pressure in this scenario? 

Just trying to learn what to watch for here. 

What do you need to happen to get this NW? I was kind of confused about the suppression since the air is not nearly as cold as similar looking events. 

Well the GFS and Canadian were a no go for this weekend, though the Canadian showed a good storm for eastern areas next Tuesday. 

Whatever happens this weekend, it seems the models keep wanting to show something for the valley which is a good sign. 

Edit: I think the storm showing for next week was shown on another model run a couple of days ago, GFS or Canadian? Is this popping up due to energy left behind or something? Someone more knowledgable than me chime in lol

Good news for tomorrow. According to MRX:

Outside of the mountains on Monday, low temperatures
should be below normal levels given snow pack, even went below
guidance for the fcst.   Otherwise, expecting a cloudy typical
northwest flow day with light snow showers over the northern plateau
and central/northern valley with afternoon highs struggling to top
the freezing mark north of I40 (and any higher terrain across the
mountains/plateau), with low/mid 30s southward in the valley.  Given
these expecting temperatures, would expect lingering roadways
hazards due to remnant snowpack for much of the area that receives
ample snowfall tonight.

I think some may luck out with the nwf showers in the am as well. Still a lot of leftover moisture from the main system.  

4 minutes ago, bearman said:

We are getting good steady snow.  Have around 2 inches in Crestwood subdivision, just behind Sams and wallmart in west Knoxville.  Roads are freezing over and turning white.  I guess all the salt they put down washed away before the snow started.  They are going to be a sheet of ice.

Yeah, tomorrow is supposed to be pretty cold too. I don't think roads are going to be back to normal until Tuesday honestly. That because of all the ice from the rain underneath the snow. 

8 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Snow is under the radar. Im in a dry slot but puking tiny flakes that’s not being picked up well.




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I am eagerly awaiting this band as well. This thing does look like it is moving slow too, which is nice. 

Just now, PowellVolz said:

I’m right at an inch now. I actually think I have a chance for up to 3” the way this is headed.


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I like the way you are thinking. If we can squeeze out 3, I will consider this a "boom." 

Just now, Greyhound said:

Inskip area……??? Finally started sticking here in FT City about 20 minutes ago.

Yeah, I am in Inskip. It started sticking around then here as well. Temp is now at 33. Should not have to worry about temps from here on out at least. Roads will probably be pretty slick with all the water. 

Well on my way to an inch. If this can keep up for a few hours... 

Finally sticking! Ripping here. We have had some good rates throughout the day. Just never could stick. As soon as the sun went behind the hill: magic. 

6 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Solidly in the not boom part of this one so far. Unless the afternoon improves this will be in all-time bust territory here. In 2018 I got 1.5 inches after being modeled 12+. This is competing with that one. 

I figured you would do well up there. Too much mixing or not enough moisture? 

I think you will clean up with the deform band this evening.

33 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

HRRR hammers the valley

Wow, this lastest run shows it as all snow in the valley. Much quicker changeover. Let us hope it is correct! 

5 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

I think anyone north of 40 will be outside the cold core unless this tracks NE some. This has the look of a southern valley special now. Seems like the GFS was showing the southern valley getting hammered


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From what I have observed on the models,  most in the southern valley get their thump starting now (if temps and rates cooperate) while those of us in the central and northern valley get more from the deform band this evening. 

Maddening, but I think we just need to have patience and hope the band this evening works out us. Most models had us getting nada until the evening so we are still on track! 

Radar already seems to be filling back in? 3k Nam had it coming back in between 12-1.  Is the low still in the mountains? Anyone know? 

Dropped 2 degrees in last hour. Wind was coming out of the E/ESE during the dry slot. Now it is coming out of the N/NW. Also have some flakes and ice pellets mixing in, though still mostly rain. She is trying though! Obviously a pretty thin warm layer.  

I should state that I am north of downtown Knoxville. 

Wow, lots of potential in the next few weeks. We could potential get some snow with snow still on the ground, which I love. The mark of a good winter. 

Just now, Kasper said:

Are we being dry slotted at the moment? Just waiting on the low to slide east? 

Yeah, pretty sure that is the case. Looks to start filling back in around 1 or 2. 

The HRRR is pretty terrible outside of a few hours in my experience. I find the NAM way more reliable these days. It was pretty spot on for the last storm, temps and all. 

6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Clicking on some of the soundings on Pivotal, it looks like some of the precip it is rendering as rain is borderline snow. I clikced on Knoxville on this map:

 

and got this sounding:

 

Looks like it may just be extremely shallow boundary layer warmth and not a warm nose. 

Just curious, does this help explain the difference in modeling snow totals? Like some runs have nothing while the last GFS was pretty good. 

I know there is a lot going on with this storm and the low placement, but just curious if some models are interpreting rain as snow and vice versa. 

Yeah, the 12z was a step in the right direction. The low looked like it almost made it to the coast before popping up in the mountains. Regardless, with the low not immediately jumping to our neck of the woods, the dry slot was smaller and the temps a bit better as a result. 

I think if we can at least keep some moisture here the backend could work out better for eastern folks which is pretty much what the 12z shows. 

Yeah, stick a fork in it. Easier to get snow in pretty much any other part of TN and the deep south states then the valley at this point. 

There is really nothing to "force it" back south and east, correct? Does the low simply need to be weaker and less amped?

I am not really buying that run of the NAM.  Just does not seem like a common track at all. The LP starts north, goes south, then back north? Any relevant historical analogues to support this track? 

4 minutes ago, McMinnWx said:

I want to believe...

Same, but still not convinced for the valley. I do believe that we could see some snow. Just not convinced on the larger totals.  Temps are trending in the right direction. 

I think when the NAM gets in range we will have a better look at potential downsloping, warm nose, and etc for the valley. It did pretty great with the last storm about 48 hours before. It seemed to have the sharp cutoff above 40 in Knox accurately depicted. The RGEM for example did not show this feature, and instead pasted Knox county with 4 or 5 inch totals even while the storm was ongoing. NAM did excellent in comparison.