The Ole Bucket

Windchill is already subzero here in SEMO. Extremely dry though.

The 12z long-range HRRR is a thing of beauty. Would pay big bucks for this to verify, unlikely as that is

A perfect run showing how the NAM is always wetter and warmer than what verifies. Classic stuff.

NWS STL finally getting fully onboard..

12Z GFS running and seems really similar to last run

I imagine they are concerned with mixing to the south and east, but from Cape on north there isn't gonna be any mixing so the disparity is crazy.

NWS STL hedging quite a bit

Yeah feels a lot more likely that the models will factor in the strong arctic high/blocking and how dry it is and create sharper northern cutoffs than there be a temp thing going on. The cold is legit.

Time to start the windshield wipers and bring this back south a little bit so everyone can get in on the fun.

We had about 2" of wet snow in the last system that melted/was washed away within hours. No advisory for that. But they finally went ahead and gave us our first WWA of the season in SEMO for this one. A few flakes falling out there now.

I could complain that we didn't get more, but what's the point? A decent result here in southeast Missouri (about 6") and bitterly cold this morning.

Likely going to score a quick inch this morning here in SEMO before the main event.

Well since it completely plasters my backyard I would say now

A foot of pure powder IMBY according to the 18Z GFS (Kuchera) I would gladly take half of that!