bwt3650

21” storm total at Mansfield’s High Road Plot over 48 hours.  I’ll make a pictogram later of the 3 measurements.
It’s so deep out there.  The photos and videos on social media in the woods off the Gondola is just snorkeling stuff.

Deep winter…





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Still hit the bottom every once in a while, but not bad for a refresh..





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Crusty bottom underneath anything with pitch, but overall, pretty damn good out there…





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Death band in northern nj hunterdon county…




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600’ in hunterdon county…




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Unless one of my servers dies I'm not going to Stowe for ANYTHING for the next 10 days.  Getting on rt 100 will be hard enough!  I hate this upcoming week.  

Still snowing….



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This new snow at the ski areas is going to make things go nuclear for visitation.  With a couple days left of snow showers possible from SVT to NVT… I’d expect heavy inbound traffic to the state and ski towns.  Presidents Weekend is the apex of ski vacations. 

Dumping snow again. Well over a foot today. The snow machine just won’t quit off that flow into the northern spine.


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Dumping snow right now…bit of an over performer so far.


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5 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah J.Spin, you know how it goes.  The inches of snowfall don’t matter, the LE does when we have a boilerplate layer to bury and make more fun.  20” of 0.50” water is the same as 5” of 10:1 in terms of how it affects the surface conditions.

Nam looks .5 to .75 by Monday; GFS .75 to 1.  Maybe I'm more optimistic about surface conditions, but from what we've had, I think that would get the woods back in play.  Skier traffic this weekend would be an issue thought too, so who knows how the trails wind up.  Has that nice jay cloud look to it, but never bet against PF and Jspin.   

38 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I like 3-6” for the mountain through noon tomorrow, then another 2-4” into Sat AM.  Say 5-10” by 7am SAT.  Can apply that to all local mountains.

I’m a little skeptical of 8”+ by 1pm tomorrow but when am I not?  If ratios are 25:1 it’ll get there.

very reasonable...I think it will be a wintery feel throughout the holiday weekend with very few actual breaks in the snow at the mountain.  Throw in another 3-6 Sunday into Monday, and President's day itself, when everyone is leaving might be a sneaky top ten day of the season.  Midweek skiing next week should be great.

Why do some get so bent out of shape when there is discussion which incorporates climate change/global warming? Read through some of the last 5-7 pages and there is some excellent discussion/debate. I get there is the whole climate change form and whatever but there is nothing wrong with great debate and discussion and much of what has been posted has been very informative. Maybe there is a place for it but its much better than the constant sexual references and posts which have zero value

Two storms this winter is about what most expected, a week of winter in Jan with a storm and another ongoing week now with a very similar storm just displaced 100 miles or so south.  Upstate NY to NNE have seen nothing for months which is really amazing and that doesn't look to change at all going into March.  Just an historically bad winter, last year was MUCH better overall for the Northeast.  Most Ski resorts finished normal to above normal, not a chance this winter.  The best month for the ski resorts was November...think Jay had 100 before December this year...

1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

This afternoon I received a text that we’d been put under a Winter Weather Advisory in association with the upcoming clipper system, and the latest BTV NWS maps are below. Our point forecast comes in around 5” to 8” of snow accumulation through Friday night, which generally lines up with the Event Total Snowfall map having us in the darkest blue 4-6” shading, but fairly proximal to the yellow 6-8” shading. Checking the point forecasts in the Bolton-Stowe-Smugg’s stretch of the spine just to our north, I’m seeing projected accumulations through that period top out in the 4-10”/5-11” range, which is where they’ve put that concentration of yellow shading.

I didn't want to mention anything after the upslope fail 2 weeks ago, but yes, should be a nice refresher so desperately needed right now...and it looks to stay snowy throughout the weekend with another refresh toward Monday.  The 3-5 today is blown all over the place, but that, combined with 6-10 by Saturday and maybe another 3-6 late weekend and early next week would go a long way right now.  This is the bread and butter set up over the next 7 days we need to get back into the game. I'd have to think losing about 10 days worth of accumulation in peak snow climo has put us significantly behind average now.  

I can't speak for Jay but the Stowe report can almost entirely be attributed to [mention=352]powderfreak[/mention].  His dedication to having an accurate accounting is key.  He pretty much documented the development of his system on this board.

I find the Stowe snow report to be pretty accurate to conditions. No real bs making it sound better than it is like some other resorts.   Yes, a “fun challenge” has been the pretty common “not so great but you are not going to die” refrain for some of these post-marginal events or dry periods. 

Fantastic mid-winter blue bird day. Crisp, little wind and bright blue skies. Groomers are where it’s at right now. Naturals and glades are skiable, but def a “fun challenge”. Lots of base so they might be decent toward the weekend when it softens up, but we need a refresh. Great day to be out.







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It depends on the shifts.  Since Perry Merrill is the evening uphill route for skinning, that pod gets done after midnight every day.  FourRunner blue terrain is largely before midnight.
Some of that isn’t operator either, but stuff groomed earlier in the night is firmer as a rule because it has time to cool and set.  Gondola stuff is usually good because it’s been groomed under 5 hours to open and sometimes just an hour before opening.  That stuff is freshly tilled with more air in it as it hasn’t had time to set.  So it skis softer.

Fog was thick on the top 1/3 at windham today, but the trails were perfect. Soft, well groomed and easily carvable. Really good for cruising. Back up north on Sunday, so we’ll see how the northern green compare.





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Yeah, I’d noticed that for a few runs. About 48 hours back, the modeling suggested the possibility of the low pressure hanging up in Northern Maine and the Canadian Maritimes for a bit, and we of course know what potential that holds for the Northern Greens, but that isn’t prominent in the more recent runs. You’ll see that right now that the BTV NWS forecast discussion mentions the shortwave that pivots through the region Thursday into Friday. Even if it just pivots through though, the current GFS modeling suggests a half inch or so of liquid equivalent, which is a decent resurfacing for the low and moderate angle slopes, although it’s not going to cut it for the steeper pitches. It could be double digit snowfall depending on the ratios, but it’s really the liquid that matters for the resurfacing. None of the other models are as robust with the moisture as the GFS, so it can’t be taken more seriously until other models start to bump up the QPF. The BTV NWS will be all over it in their discussion if the QPF starts to increase in the next couple of days.
I do find that the GFS is excellent in general when it comes to typical northern stream systems interacting with the Northern Greens in the medium range, actually the best overall from years of casual observation.  When it comes to our bread and butter type systems, all I find I typically have to do is quickly run through what the GFS shows for roughly the next week out, and you’ll pretty much have an idea of what’s going to happen up here. Phasing systems and all that are an entirely different beast, but whatever coding and algorithms they have in the GFS, it seems primed to show what’s going to happen in the Northern Greens for our bread and butter systems better than any of the other medium range models.

Gfs has been hammering days of upslope starting late week into next weekend for several runs now. Nice signal and position.




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We may all have our meltdowns, and there may be some true ********s, there's something seriously wrong with this " Pope " character. Something's not wrapped too tight upstairs. Kind of feel bad for him.
On a different note. I kind of like where the euro is. If you take the other models and go in the middle, this can be good for everyone in southern New England at least.

The actual jay cloud….

bitter, but not crazy abnormal, mid jan day. Wind had a bite.




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