GEFS a step back from 6z for the 12th. Hard to tell but snowfall mean looks cut in half. Probably warmer. Not suppressed like the op.
edit: some members are similar to the op. Overall the storm is just weaker.
I don’t know how to explain it or if there’s an actual reason, but I feel like marginal temps don’t usually end up happening. It’s either colder in reality, or 37° and rain.
Severe thunderstorm of August 2nd. APG measured a 78mph wind gust, but I believe it was even higher. 10-12 trees fell behind the house, including 1 on the roof. $44,000 in damage here.