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Conway7305

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  1. Conway7305
    nice!!
  2. Conway7305
    18z GFS PD storm threat went from snow at 0z to rain at 60 degrees for 18z. lol. Cold just vanishes. Let’s see what the overnight models say.
  3. Conway7305
    I remember the 2016 Storm models initially had a rain storm for 5-6 days in LR a then about a week before the storm it trended colder and boom.
  4. Conway7305
    Good news is both GFS and EURO show a storm (Potentially BIG) with juiced up STJ. We don’t want too much of a block, otherwise supression. To little of a block is a cutter or rainstorm. Hoping we find middle ground. NAO block has weakened a little past few runs but still there so that’s good news. Lots of waves coming on shore so no shortage of storms. We just need good timing.
  5. Conway7305
    Just happy to finally see a healthy potential storm setup , Richmond right on the snow/sleet line. I’m sure it will change a bunch and maybe even disappear and reappear but there is a good signal for some kind of storm.
  6. Conway7305
    0z GFS has a big hit for just north of us like 30 miles all snow. for PD. Good news is the storm looks big and it is there most importantly on this run. Haven’t seen that kind of Miller A in a while. We still get snow but not as much as North central VA, maybe I am looking at it wrong. Wait till accumulation maps come out.
  7. Conway7305
    Big Dog!
  8. Conway7305
    Lots of coastal lows showing up PD.
  9. Conway7305
    Yeah looks like 14th storm jumped North. Hopefully the suppressed storm threat for PD can trend further north.
  10. Conway7305
    0z GFS has some digital blue for us on V Day. Northern VA has more. Still plenty of time
  11. Conway7305
    I wouldn’t be surprised if that LR storm fantasy storm turned into a bigger storm at mid range or ushers in a bigger storm. Sometime between the 18th-24th. Upper level pattern screams storm.
  12. Conway7305
    LR models look dry for the most part, hoping that will change in time. Would hate to waste a good pattern change with no precip.
  13. Conway7305
    LR snow maps are looking better
  14. Conway7305
    Agreed, Pattern change still on time for 15th, once all is digested, after the 18th is when our chances will be best. Haven’t seen a pattern like this since 2016. Weeklies continue to show favorable patten progressing through mid March.
  15. Conway7305
    P4 please!
  16. Conway7305
    Weeklies showing favorable pattern continuing through March 15th. Looks like we may get a month of opportunities after pattern change occurs on or shortly after Feb 15th. I feel like our best window is going to be between Feb 18th-28th but March could also be good. All ingredients are there Split Flow, -AO, -NAO MJO in Phase 8, +PNA, Active STJ in a moderate/strong NINO. It is rare to get all these Oscillations in right places at the right time.
  17. Conway7305
    lol, we’re snow broke down here.
  18. Conway7305
    I typically post in the Richmond thread, live in west end of town near “Short Pump”…lol Short Pump is actually a really nice area in Henrico county just NW of Richmond. I know the name sounds funny. Tons of good restaurants there. Anyways, back to weather, excited for all to score w/ this forecasted pattern setup in Mid Feb. Haven’t seen such a favorable pattern like this in years. Hope we can all start tracking a KU soon.
  19. Conway7305
    The upcoming pattern looks very favorable starting on Feb 15th. There hasn’t been any can kicking. Long wave patterns looks pretty darn good with split flow and developing NAO block. Folks in main thread are going nuts over it today, even the regular skeptics on that thread are bullish. Will see.
  20. Conway7305
    Huge shift N on Icon, giving some love to VA Beach Tidewater
  21. Conway7305
    Still hanging onto a few big hitters on the 12z GFS Ensembles
  22. Conway7305
    Agreed, Feb 4-5 north trend is too warm “at the moment” Catch 22. Colder = Supression, Warmer if storm is north. Maybe a coastal low can bring in colder air. Longer Term, NAO really just needs to go negative to help us. It positive now trending neutral through Feb 15th. Weeklies still ok on pattern change but only after the 15th and will take time to get cold air established. Wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t start tracking legit opportunities until after Feb 20th.
  23. Conway7305
    Still plenty of time but not trending well. GFS Ensembles are better. Unfortunately GFS usually follows the EURO. May need to wait for pattern change around 15th until we track anything promising.
  24. Conway7305
    Hopefully ensemble members will show it further north. That ULL near New England is causing the suppressed look. GEM showed a flush hit here.
  25. Conway7305
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