Conway7305

Nice rain storm on the GFS… Lol

Latest GFS ensemble members are not good for us for Sunday/Monday Hard to believe just days ago, most all the ensemble models and were showing WSW criteria for RVA. Thats why I hate Miller B storms. They are typically unpredictable and usually have mixing issues. The pattern setting up after this storm is cold and dry until around 16th of January. Hopefully during the relaxation period mid Jan we can score. GFS fantasy show a gulf storm 300 hr

lol, shift back south on 6z euro I love storm tracking but model hunting beyond 4 days out makes me want to go drink with the swings we keep seeing.

Yep, GFS Faltered Honestly wouldn’t be surprised if DC got shafted out of the snow zone by Monday. This storm is going north. Eric Webber on X has a good explanation why it’s trending north. https://x.com/webberweather/status/1874602242336247903?s=46 What a drag. My guess is we get a few flakes at beginning then straight to ice/sleet to rain 0 accumulation except for sleet :/…ugh. On the flip side, if this storm does end up cutting further north then it might help storm #2 come up coast more. Our area historically never does very well with complicated Miller B setups like the storm on Monday. The Miller A storms that ride up the coast are what usually produces for us.

Models have been flipping around. Too early to call a bust. Icon, Gfs UKIe all looked good

18z GFS better for us! Stays snow most of the duration

I don’t get the Euro Ai model outputs but heard it was really trying to bring a legit Miller A up coast and grazes us on 1/10-1/11 Southeast gets crushed.

We need the snow belt to shift 60 miles south. Still good for a 3-4 inch snow but would be nice get 8-12 followed by deep freeze. Also I’m still big dog hunting and waiting on our HECS Miller A later in Jan. lol

yeah, I saw that but the other models are showing more snow. The 12z icon especially looks good for us.

Fellas , it looks like RVA is going to get its first measurable snowfall Sunday night-Monday. Honestly, I don’t care how much is as long as it covers the grass and roads….lol

NICE! I think some of those high snow totals are from two storms possibly or is it mainly the 1st storm?

That’s right I forgot about 2018.

That is bullseye for us! Let’s hope it holds . If that verified, it would be the biggest snow in years, maybe 2016

16/50 have us getting 4+ with this run

Will take p28 or p3!

Not bad for 6+ days out

Still plenty of time, 12z OP both storms were suppressed but 6z was great. Shows nice event on 1/7 then 2nd storm kinda comes up coast. Models will continue to be all over the place for the next couple days.

Thats what I was afraid of, Cold/Suppressed. Still plenty of time to change

Not a bad 0z ICON run for 1/6-7

Could be a good thing not having PV right over us, storms won’t stay as suppressed and may try come up the coast

will take e22 or e30!

18z GEFS snowfall mean trended better then 12z. Also looked like something was trying to get cooking in the gulf after 1/6 but didn’t quite phase

EPS decent. Time will tell, There are so many shortwaves flying around it’s tough to nail down anything past 5 days.

12z EURO OP is a good run for decent Miller B on 1/6

12z GFS OP run was not good. Cutter storm 1/5-6 to supression and cold. Seems we are tending the wrong way:/ I am still rooting for 1/8-9 but this cold push may not anllow anything to come north. Might have to wait for a relax period in mid Jan