Conway7305

Big Dog!

Lots of coastal lows showing up PD.

Yeah looks like 14th storm jumped North. Hopefully the suppressed storm threat for PD can trend further north.

0z GFS has some digital blue for us on V Day. Northern VA has more. Still plenty of time

I wouldn’t be surprised if that LR storm fantasy storm turned into a bigger storm at mid range or ushers in a bigger storm. Sometime between the 18th-24th. Upper level pattern screams storm.

LR models look dry for the most part, hoping that will change in time. Would hate to waste a good pattern change with no precip.

LR snow maps are looking better

Agreed, Pattern change still on time for 15th, once all is digested, after the 18th is when our chances will be best. Haven’t seen a pattern like this since 2016. Weeklies continue to show favorable patten progressing through mid March.

P4 please!

Weeklies showing favorable pattern continuing through March 15th. Looks like we may get a month of opportunities after pattern change occurs on or shortly after Feb 15th. I feel like our best window is going to be between Feb 18th-28th but March could also be good. All ingredients are there Split Flow, -AO, -NAO MJO in Phase 8, +PNA, Active STJ in a moderate/strong NINO. It is rare to get all these Oscillations in right places at the right time.

lol, we’re snow broke down here.

I typically post in the Richmond thread, live in west end of town near “Short Pump”…lol Short Pump is actually a really nice area in Henrico county just NW of Richmond. I know the name sounds funny. Tons of good restaurants there. Anyways, back to weather, excited for all to score w/ this forecasted pattern setup in Mid Feb. Haven’t seen such a favorable pattern like this in years. Hope we can all start tracking a KU soon.

The upcoming pattern looks very favorable starting on Feb 15th. There hasn’t been any can kicking. Long wave patterns looks pretty darn good with split flow and developing NAO block. Folks in main thread are going nuts over it today, even the regular skeptics on that thread are bullish. Will see.

Huge shift N on Icon, giving some love to VA Beach Tidewater

Still hanging onto a few big hitters on the 12z GFS Ensembles

Agreed, Feb 4-5 north trend is too warm “at the moment” Catch 22. Colder = Supression, Warmer if storm is north. Maybe a coastal low can bring in colder air. Longer Term, NAO really just needs to go negative to help us. It positive now trending neutral through Feb 15th. Weeklies still ok on pattern change but only after the 15th and will take time to get cold air established. Wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t start tracking legit opportunities until after Feb 20th.

Still plenty of time but not trending well. GFS Ensembles are better. Unfortunately GFS usually follows the EURO. May need to wait for pattern change around 15th until we track anything promising.

Hopefully ensemble members will show it further north. That ULL near New England is causing the suppressed look. GEM showed a flush hit here.

those are some insane totals. 20+

Still some Big hits on graphs. Would love to see the animation output for e50

Just corrected it, thx!

Well the 12z EURO was suppressed but does bring a storm up coast. Interesting to see what the ensemble members show. Good news is, there is a storm but different evolution. Will see lots of different solutions

0z EURO would break the snow records for Richmond Feb 4-5th if it verified. Still snowing at end of the run. 6z GFS Ensembles also look better for the same timeframe. I’m sure 12z will be different but great to see threats popping up!

The new Euro Weeklies run is easily the coldest overall yet again for mid Feb through early Mar. Once the BN temperatures set in Feb 12-19, they remain well below through the end of the run (Mar 4-12th) The week of Feb 19th is the coldest for that week of any run yet and may, when also considering El Niño climo, have the most winter storm potential in the Mid Atlantic of any single week per this run per h5: All checks: Miller A/GOM potential written all over it (combo of Aleutian Low/+PNA, -NAO, -AO, and moist subtropical flow/split flow):