Conway7305

There is also some talk in the main thread about surprise boom at the last minute but low confidence obviously. stormchaserChuck says it has happened before back in 2009. AO standard deviation was -5 like now and lifted out last minute. I’m not familiar/experienced with some of the technical stuff but good to hear surprises happen.

Anyone looking at radar, looks good out W.

Meant to post that in RIC thread but still looks good though…lol

Anyone looking at the radar, it looks juicy out W.

Low definitely closer to coast this run.

2nd ULL needs to come through

NAM still isn’t done yet

Yep about the same, there is another round that should come in from ULL i think at hour 39 or so that may add another inch or so.

I believe around 9am

Low is closer to the coast so there is that

now

NAM is weaker I think

I saw that plus there is a 2nd wave (ULL) that comes later around hour 36 at least on 18z so I expect it to also add on an inch or so.

There is another window being talked about in early March for next warm cycle to exit and we get another/possibly last window of opportunity before spring.

Based off the trends. Richmond sees 2-2.5 inches. Mainly from the weak northern stream driven storm that’s basically dying out every run. DT is in trouble unless the NAM saves him and us….lol

You’re right I don’t know why I’m even looking at it… Lol

The euro weakens the storm considerably and it’s a bit faster slider

18z euro was terrible

It is in the thread of his last call map

Just saw that, here is what he wrote: “For you Weather Geeks out there and sick twisted weather freaks yes I saw the 18z 3KM NAM -- I will be ignoring it completely. Indeed if you take a look at the last four runs of 3km NAM model precipitation amounts at say Richmond for example you get this kind of variation 0z -0.91” 6z-0.51 “ 12z= 0.77” 18z = 0.45. This kind of up and down back and forth with the precipitation amounts in the short Range models are common and it also exists in the GFS Euro and 12km NAM models just to name a few. It is one of those things you have to deal with as a meteorologist. I have absolutely no doubt that when the 0z NAM comes out at 9:00 p.m. it will have increased the moisture in all areas of Central and Eastern Virginia once again.”

These so called NAM resolution issues earlier. I wonder if it had any bearing on us. Probably not. Will see at 0z. I know the low pressure offshore SC/NC during the storm has been jumping around a LOT. Also intense thunderstorms in the GOM may have robbed some moisture on 18z run.

GFS was realistic between 5-6 for RVA. It does look like the low comes closer to the coast this run FWIW.

I hear ya, I just want enough snow so my kids can go real sledding and not have to worry about dealing with the mud after one run… Lol

This run was much more realistic. I’ll take the 4 inches in Short Pump and call it a winter.

Problem is the low shifted south east by at least 40 miles