Conway7305

Two of the short range models show us getting around 5+.WRF AR WRF AR2 This doesn’t include the 12z GFS https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=wrf-arw&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2024011412&fh=48 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=wrf-arw2&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2024011412&fh=40

Love it! Beautiful overrunning event on 16th according to GFS. Also has some accumulation on the 19th storm. I would be happy with these two minor/mid events this week then break till Feb where we can score big SECS OR HECS.

HRRR Short range gives us 2-4.

now, we need to keep an eye on the 20th Storm.

On a positive note. We have a had a ton of moisture this winter from the subtropical jet unlike prior years thanks to El Niño. That won’t be an issue. Hopefully we can get into a favorable pattern in late Jan-Feb. MJO looks to swing back to cold phases in Feb. NAO/AO will eventually go negative again. Just need PNA to stay positive. Still could score big. Extended weeklies still look good for below average temps. I’ll certainly enjoy smaller storms but have most fun tracking the MECS or HECS storms. Thrill of the chase.

ugh….bad GFS run. May have to wait for pattern to reshuffle later in Jan to score unless things change Our window keeps getting pushed out. Trough just isn’t in a good placement. Needs to be east a bit and sw/ energy can dig more into texas instead of TN.

Still a ways to go for the 16th. However there’s another storm on the euro for the 19th.

Unfortunately the GFS is trending to the EURO which gives us basically nothing. A surprise inch or two would be nice. I hope this winter has some more uncomplicated storms for us. I remember 2016 all models showed that storm 10 days out and never budged much.

Will be curious to see the 0z ensemble members.

0z GFS has 6” for us. Actually the costal low track is ideal for snow here . It’s a colder solution so no mixing really. Just hope storm doesn’t get suppressed.

Yes! Meant P29

I’ll Take p28 on 18z GFS Ensembles

18z GFS ensembles way better for our area

I don’t think the GFS is handling the southern stream energy well. 500mb are drastically changing run to run. EURO has not wavered much at all.

Lots more big hitters here!!

Not as many members on 0z but still a few big hitters. I’ll take that 20 inch member!

18z EURO Ensembles look good again for 16-17 storm setup

there are a lot more hits for our area on the 12z EURO Ensemble members. Trends are nice so far. Still have a ways to go.

18z ECMWF Ensembles are a big improvement with trough placement further east on 13th leading up to event on 17th.

Some Big Hitters in there!

And another storm brewing at end of run

Only a few big Hits for our area but signal is there in long range. Hopefully that will change for the better. Plenty of time. I expect some wild OP runs in the coming days.

Encouraging Model Runs at 0zand 6z Our window may be Jan 15th 16th then again 22nd-23rd

Hopefully by Jan 20th we get a +PNA with a negative NAO/AO with strong Nino 2016 prime example. PNA Positive, NAO negative . Jan 15-16 we had a light event then epic week following on Jan 23rd we got absolutely dumped on . 16 inches fell Henrico. Hoping PNA can climb as forecasted to positive by mid month and we may start seeing some good action.