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Conway7305

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Everything posted by Conway7305

  1. Conway7305
    6z euro was a tick south from 0z so hopefully bleeding stopped. Will see for 12z. Every model usually follows the euro even if its lag time.
  2. Conway7305
  3. Conway7305
    GFS ok, mixes for a bit then goes back to snow
  4. Conway7305
    Models also don’t pick up well on CAD typically past 72 hours so hopefully we will get better idea as time get closer to storm.
  5. Conway7305
    ICON is snow to ice. Not really putting much faith in th model. It’s all over the place and usually corrects to euro or gfs
  6. Conway7305
    NAM is way too warm. Hopefully that will correct in time
  7. Conway7305
    Stronger High Pressure over Montana (1039) has positive downstream effects on 6z Euro. See a small shift south from 0z. Bleeding hopefully has stopped maybe a trend south again?
  8. Conway7305
    Good Read https://x.com/_jwall/status/2013924395425624230?s=46
  9. Conway7305
    6z Euro ticked south a hair
  10. Conway7305
    Warm nose sneaking up to NOVA. Ice sucks
  11. Conway7305
    13.5”’14” not bad at all.
  12. Conway7305
    Unbelievable the models just all over the place now. Was not expecting that
  13. Conway7305
    At least there’s some southern ensemble solutions still. RVA is always on the R/S line in these setups.
  14. Conway7305
    CMC had ICE to PA :/
  15. Conway7305
    0z GFS running, let’s hold the line.
  16. Conway7305
    14” is good for RVA. Flirts with Snow/Sleet line after initial dump.
  17. Conway7305
    Not too doom and gloom .I actually agree the N shift is real, Been analyzing the members and operations runs from 0z to 12z to 18z and there were definitely more members now bringing heavy snow to NOVA points north. However still lots showing hits here , just not as solid as earlier. Hopefully will correct back S.
  18. Conway7305
    In 2016 we managed to stay mostly snow. Minor mixing but flipped back to snow.
  19. Conway7305
    Here is 18z EPS
  20. Conway7305
    Here is 18z Ukmet Image
  21. Conway7305
    A few runs ago the euro snuck in a little bit of sleet , but then backed it down again so I think it’s gonna waiver.
  22. Conway7305
    18z AIFS Ensembles Folks were still good
  23. Conway7305
    EPS was still good for us. Ensembles tell the story. The operational can flip around some.
  24. Conway7305
    “Gotta smell the sleet to get the goods”….lol stole that line from NOVA forum. We still do just as good as DC.
  25. Conway7305
    I wonder if this storm could rival the 1940 blizzard that set the all-time snow record in Richmond for 21”.
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