Conway7305

Nice to see threats ahead of anticipated pattern change. If we get threats like this for 5-6 weeks beginning Feb 4th we are bound to score decent/ big from at least one storm. The pacific jet stream will move more equatorial and will easily tap the STJ moisture in split flow. The h5 pattern is beautiful and doesn’t seem to end on extended weeklies.

Yeah, will fluctuate a lot between runs. LR Snowmaps are just an idea not super accurate or personally worried about . One big storm will change it. The pattern still looks great through March 11th. We basically will have a month plus of opportunities hopefully. Love the split flow pattern and active STJ . Haven't seen that at all this winter or past few winters.

If only that would verify…haha.

Some HECS hits in there, nice!! I know it will change but good to see some big outputs being so far out. That time frame is before the pattern change really occurs.

Yep! Big time run for us validating the pattern change at least and ahead of schedule.

It’s actually really enjoyable now. Love the warm break. Calm before the big pattern change. Weeklies look absolutely fantastic for cold and stormy from about Feb 15th all the way to March 10th. I couldn’t draw up a better pattern.

Agreed, I never really expected much before Feb 15th. All the guidance has been around 8-15th for the transition to occur . No can kicking at least. NAO/AO is getting ready to tank from positive and should be negative by early Feb.

18z GFS has 1-2 inches for our area Friday. Short range models don’t agree says little to nothing. Doesn’t matter to me anyways…lol. Will be staying overnight on work in VA Beach…lol

Thanks for the detailed info. I always thought Mid Feb-March was the wheelhouse. NAO should be Negative by then and hopefully a +PNA.

Thanks for the update! I don’t mind a brief warmup. May play a round of golf end of next week. Rooting for a cold/snowy Feb-March. Hopefully the MJO can also swing back to 8-1-2 in Feb

I’ll be in VA Beach this Friday so nothing there. Still hope Feb pans out for us.

Seems like the snow band hasn’t moved north much

Heavy Snow in Henrico, Roads starting to cave

back to snow

A little sleet mixing in with snow now. Just got back to Henrico

I’m working down in Williamsburg today. Just started snowing.

I was never expecting 4-6. Let me be clear. Yesterday, several models began showing those higher totals. These were the short range models when the storm was a day away. Several models showed higher outputs for three consecutive runs at 3-4+ I wasn’t talking about fantasy LR runs or 360 GFS. Hence why I posted the maps, Also, why a lot of other posters here showed and posted the exact same maps I did . Yeah it was a brief output, but that’s what we do here. Follow the trends. Good or bad. I guarantee the next big “potential” storm on horizon, snowfall amounts will be posted here well before, even if it is “fantasy” That’s the fun of it.

Scroll back through the threads and you will see snow maps posted of the WRF and even the GFS. showing 4-6. BTW I live in Henrico.

Yeah I see that as well but also has it mixing with sleet/rain. I honestly just want to see some snowflakes. I think even a 1/2 inch would be generous. HRRR short range keeps getting worse for this area. Sad that a day ago we had 4-6…..lol

Inch would be nice. I really hope we can get a decent storm in Feb. Need to kill this terrible snow drought. I don’t know the last time we had over an inch.

Now we should really just keep an eye on the HRRR which loads every hour and look at the radar feeds. Hopefully we can get a shift back south again.

Looks like snow amounts unfortunately got lowered with short range 0z models. 1 inch would be max maybe 1.5. Snow band moves north fairly quickly. Things could change. Still holding out for a bigger storm later in Feb hopefully.

Max accumulations by any model projections is 7.5 inches. That would be great. My guess is between 3-4 inches.

GFS takes away the 1/20 storm but close call, S/W came onshore further SE (good trend) but did not link up with STJ. Still plenty of time

Biggest totals yet…That’s definitely WSW criteria if it verifies on 18z