stadiumwave

I have thought all along we couple be looking at the end if DEC or early JAN.

There will be a warmup I think but hopefully short-lived.

Probably brief spike before a storm & does not see it clearly. But per Bering Sea rule, expect a ridge in the east at the end of month. Could be temporary but not exactly sure.

EURO Seasonal updated...here is Dec

If you're on the east coast more moisture will be involved. Mostly everyone else its clipper type systems...which can produce, but not your big winter storms. The exception may be potential around the 12th.

Ha, don't think so..

I honestly wonder if winter forecasts should be redone & use ENSO neutral analogs. This La Nina is dying fast!!! SOI is absolutely tanking

I think we are going to see plenty of cold but the pattern is going to be overall dry...maybe clippers...etc. I think the 12z CMC has a better handle on the next 10 days over the GFS. It's not a great winter storm pattern by any means.

N. PAC Current 30 day change

SOI has been tanking since NOV 23. Only one day of substantial + since then.

Yes, models have been terrible. Don't anyone try to convince me otherwise. Is it just me or does model performance seem to tank during winter months almost every year?

Paul Roundy said it, dude is a genius so I am not bold enough to argue! But you're a pretty sharp cookie yourself Don, you're allowed, lol. Good post!

Paul Roundy's tool updated today. Wowzers!! Winter pattern through the end of JAN. We'll see. https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjoertap.html Roundy on X today said he gives a 60% chance of the east U.S. getting cold in Feb as well.