HVSnowLover

Not sure why so much fretting over temps, cold air in place for once and not a particularly amped storm. Haven't followed all the details super closely with this one but seems like a general 2-4 inches for almost the whole subforum, maybe a bit more NW and a bit less SE but I don't think drastic differences.

9 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Unusually good agreement on snowfall, especially for Philly-NJ-NYC, from the three main ensemble forecasts~36 hours in advance of the precip.  I'm sure this helps forecasters' confidence level...

 

Weak storms without big temp gradients probably a lot easier to forecast than stronger storms.

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

They very well could be amped and I don't  usually worry about the icon or rgem being too warm. The nam can often suck but is useful at finding that warm layer is all I'm saying

Right but in this particular case what would be driving a warm layer unless it's amped and close to the coast? If the low is well offshore and not that strong I don't see why there would be a warm layer. 

2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Meh is a massive upgrade from what we've had the last few years. It's all about perspective.

I'd rather have 20s and two light snow events than single digits and dry anyway (I know the second event of the week may not even be that light or happen at all) but saying hypothetically if it panned out as modeled this would be an ideal winter week imo.

Could be wrong but I think in this case RGEM/NAM are too amped and still out of their best range for Tuesdays storm (RGEM is always warm biased and NAM has been a terrible model for a while). I think this is almost all snow for everyone maybe lower ratios or a bit of sleet mixed in on the immediate coast.  

Nice winter week coming up it seems. A light snow event with cold to keep it on the ground and then possibly a second snow event at the end of the week.

Models still a little all over the place in terms of where the most snow will be but seems 1-4 inches area wide is likely a good call at this point.  

22 minutes ago, lee59 said:

How do people say it is over. Do they have a crystal ball, there is still 2 months left in winter.

There is understandable frustration given what has been experienced for the last year and a half of winter but this storm isn't over and even if it fails winter isn't over.

Not sure when the 18z GFS became such an important run. Wait for the 0z runs and the full range of guidance and if there is agreement before determining likely outcomes. I agree if most models are not on board by 0Z tonight the chances of something are a lot lower although still could change even up to around 48 hours out with these type of events.  

7 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

For me, this summarizes the surface trends well, showing the entire precip field moving NW about 150 miles vs. 0Z, bringing the 0.1-0.2" of precip to 95/coast and moving the 1" QPF line NW by ~150 miles, also. Still a ways to go, but the movement weneeded to see. 12Z also looks a little juicier, overall, too. And not that far off from the 12Z GFS precip field.  Just need it to move another 150 miles NW...

 

All we need is the Ukie and Euro to meet in the middle and most of this subforum will be quite happy.

12Z Euro decent improvement. All 4 major models now have at least 1 inch of snow for CPK by Tuesday.

13 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

UK good hit just NW of 95 and decent hit for 95 (with some sleet/rain probably), but mostly rain for the coast, as temps start out below 32F, quickly go over freezing and don't go below 32F again for 95 and SE of there until after the precip shuts off.  Most of the precip is done by 1 pm Tues.  Still a decent winter storm signal.  

 

 

It has at least 0.1 qpf for CPK with temps in the 20s. That should be enough to get rid of the streak. Given temps it's probably like the old days 2-4 inches I95 corridor changing to sleet and then rain with lower amounts SE of there.

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Outside the euro every model Gives nyc accumulation next week 

Yes even the warm ukie is still a few inches for NYC. Every model except Euro threatens the Central Park snow drought.  

Ukie beat out the CMC for more amped. The differences between the Ukie and Euro are incredible for 96 hours out.

8 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Walt said 1-3 because he was worried about possible mixing issues along the coast on the 00z CMC. 12z was further east and colder. 

Despite what we have seen the past few winters I'm more worried about OTS than mixing with this storm. The only way I can see temps/precip type an issue if the storm comes in really fast and amped like the CMC before the cold is entrenched.

11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Completely misssed my point, but okay 

Was your point that it is colder? 

8 minutes ago, DenvilleCyclone said:

It simply blows my mind that every winter the models are in different camps most of the time.  Doesn't matter if its La Nina, El Nino etc.  I follow the weather as a hobby and I love all types of weather but for some reason it seems like models do better and are in more agreement in the summer months with storms.  Not talking tropical systems, models have a widespread there. Either way when there are pending storms, my day job productivity goes way down.

Yea the differences between the Euro and CMC are pretty laughable and it's not even fantasy range anymore. We are talking like 96 hours out on the CMC the storm would start.

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I said 1-3 is being generous until the EURO comes on board.......Walt started the 1-3 prediction at this point

 

The euro is not what it used to be. This could go either way. 

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

CMC would be fun 4-8 to sleet back to snow 

 

Definitely a colder run then more progressive then 00z 

It's more like at least 8-12 inches for most of the subforum. Maybe a little sleet mixing in but temps never go above 30. Either way it's definitely the most amped of any model currently and is an outlier for now.

Seems there is discrepancy between the timing and which wave models are focusing on.  It seems to me if it's faster than the cold is less entrenched so less risk of surpression but more risk of too warm and if it's a later wave the cold is more entrenched and the risk is surpression. 

Pretty confident that the record at CPK  will end by the end of the month. Whether it be next Tue or sometime shortly after. The cold appears to finally be coming back for real. 

The storm next weekend looks potentially interesting for the interior portions of the subforum if it transfers early enough. After that maybe the coast can get some real chances but I'll also believe it when I see it. 

7 minutes ago, wdrag said:

CoCoRahS climate sites final for D1. I'll have a D1-2 combo tomorrow at this time. Click maps for clarity.

This gives an idea... imperfect but quite a snow gradient in Sussex County NJ ranging from 6" southeast to over a foot northwest.  My count at 10AM in Wantage is 13.1.  

Guess snowman19 was right. No one in Westchester or Rockland 6+ at least based on that map.

Steady light to moderate snow here. Sticking to grass, cartops, and roof tops. 

Now lightening up again and mixing with rain. Got to see a whitened ground at least.